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Subject If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
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Original Message If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?

If there were a pandemic, it would be hard to know right away. While there is media coverage, there also would be talking heads trying to urge calm and explain away any problems. Why? The main reason is to avoid panic, maintain financial markets, maintain the supply chain, and keep control of the situation with security forces.

Journalists need sources to operate. While they do like to be the one to scoop another network, they aren't willing to burn bridges in order to do so. Unless the need to reveal the truth exceeds the need to burn sources, then they aren't going to do it.

Because revealing a pandemic would incite many to reacting in unusual ways and cause chaos, and because media outlets are big business, not the independent journalists you think they are, they have a responsibility to only offer verifiable information so they don't get in trouble with their sponsors, the government, and lose viewers too.

However if there was ever going to be a pandemic, then there would be ways to learn where it was happening.

When a pandemic begins to happen, there's a large increase in absenteeism. This often ultimately results in orders not being filled, shipped, transferred. It results in an increase in purchase orders for materials in anticipation of eventual shortages because of the lack of personnel.

A primary way would be in looking at coal shipments to utility companies. Likewise, larger than normal water purification chemicals would be ordered and delivered to water utilities. They would be concerned about shortages of these and being able to supply enough in electricity and water to keep people safe.

Another very telling sign would be a decision for a medical center to keep their workers in dormatories and not allow them to go home. They would do this if they felt the risk was too high that the workers wouldn't return to work.

If there were a pandemic coming, then military forces would be organized. They have the easiest means of controlling alternative ways of logistically supply materials and manpower as well as specialty personnel in health care, utilities, trucking, as well as security.

There are tiers of critical infrastructure. Chances are those in layers of these areas would get some advanced notification of changes, and would leak the information to their families and people would purchase items in bulk suddenly.

Changes would occur in the number of vehicles on the road. Ordinarily I would say on barges, but since the issues with the drought and the Mississippi River, then that's not available to us. While things do get shipped by railroads, there's not enough and more need to be build for the River issue alone. Still you might see more railroad traffic. Airplane shipments too.

You would begin to see problems with restocking of shelves in stores with normally high volumes but who ordinarily have no problem restocking on the late night/early morning shift (often called 3rd shift).

Hospitals would preorder health supplies and would report shortages of drugs, gloves, oxygen tanks, masks, etc. These shortages are reported at the FDA website, since that's pretty profile.

Because people spread disease, changes would begin to take place in traffic control to reduce unnecessary purchases of consumer goods. The risk would be high of transmission.

Schools would have a tough issue. Since schools are incubators of illness, but they get government funds based upon the census percentage (how many show up), then at a certain point they really lose too much money if there's inadequate census and they're forced to shutdown by economic as well as health issues.

Have any other ideas?

It's very early for this flu season, and overreacting isn't helpful.

What is helpful is being prepared by having a month of food, water, medical supplies, cash, paying up bills, learning skills, etc.
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