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Subject WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
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Original Message VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE :



Important notes :

1.Testing kits are not reliable
2.African countries, India, South and Central America countries, Eastern Europe countries, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, other SE Asian countries, all former Soviet republics, most Middle East either don't have testing kits, laboratories or simply are unable/unwilling to detect/confirm the COVID19 cases.
About 70% of the population outside China belong to the above countries - cca. 4.4 billion people, labeled as Category B countries.
3.Western Europe, Japan, the U.S., South Korea, Australia, New Zeeland, Singapore are most likely not confirming COVID19 cases to postpone the panic and prop the markets.
About 30% of the population outside China belong to the above countries - cca. 1.9 billion people, labeled as Category A countries.
4.Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau are considered as a part of the countries and cities outside China.

5.Confirmed cases are still announced the day after the testing is done (24hr lag).

The model is based on a number of 2,000-2,500 infected people outside China, on January 28th, with an infection rate that is doubling every 2.5 days.

Los Alamos Labs study, peer reviewed, acknowledges an infection rate doubling every 2.4 days..

[link to arxiv.org (secure)]

The novel coronavirus (2019‐nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread
widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2
to 2.7.
(from the study).

The previous model was based on an R0 of 2.4-2.6, with a 70-80% contagion chance, which resulted in an infection rate that was doubling every 22 hrs.. I was using the data that was known at that point.

World population outside China, with their respective share of infected cases (higher for India and Africa) :
India : 1,4No - (22,29%) - infected share: 27%
Africa : 1,216,No - (19.35%) - infected share: 23%
North America : 368,No - 5,85% : infected share: 5%
Central America + South America : 6No - 9.68% - infected share: 9%
Europe : 747,No - 11.90% - infected share: 9%
Asia (minus China and India) : 1,900,000 - 30.25% - infected share: 27%


January(infected people):
28th : 2,000-2,500
29th : 3,200-4,000
30th : 4,400-5,500
31st : 5,600-7,000

February(infected people):
1st : 6,800-8,500
2nd : 8,No
3rd : 12,800-16,000

4th : 17,600-22,000
Presenting symptoms : 1,000-1,250
Serious/critical cases (18%): 202.

5th : 22,400-28,000
Presenting symptoms : 1,600-2,000

6th : 27,200-34,000 (275 confirmed, 20 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,200-2,750

7th : 32,No (327 confirmed, 61 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,800-3,500
Serious/critical cases (18%): 567.

8th : 51,200-64,000 (354 confirmed, 64 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 3,400-4,250

9th : 70,400-88,000 (379 confirmed, 70 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 4,000-5,000

10th : 89,600-112,000 (461 confirmed, 135 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 6,400-8,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 1,296.

11th : 108,800-136,000 (517 confirmed, 174 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 8,800-11,000 (+3,485 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 13,355 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 2,403.

12th : 128,000-160,000 (523 confirmed, 174 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 11,200-14,000

13th : 204,800-256,000 (586 confirmed, 218 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 13,600-17,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 2,754.

14th : 281,600-352,000 (608 confirmed, 218 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 16,No

15th : 358,400-448,000 (697 confirmed, 285 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 26,100-32,000

16th : 435,200-544,000 (781 confirmed, 355 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 35,200-44,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 7,128.

17th : 512,000-640,000(896 confirmed, 454 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 44,800-56,000

18th : 819,000-1,024,000(999 confirmed, 542 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 54,400-68,000 (+20,048 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 81,248 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 14,624.

19th : 1,126,000-1,408,000(1,116 confirmed, 621 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 64,No

20th : 1,433,000-1,792,000(1,198 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 102,400-128,000

21st : 1,740,000-2,176,000(1,379 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 140,800-176,000
N.America share (5%) : 87,No infected
Presenting symptoms : 7,040-8,800

Europe share (9%) : 156,000-195,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 12,672-15,840


22nd : 2,048,000-2,560,000(1,695 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 179,200-224,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 36,288.
N.America share (5%) : 102,400-128,000 infected
Presenting symptoms :8,960-11,200

Europe share (9%) : 184,000-230,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 16,120-oiNo


23rd : 3,277,000-4,096,000(2,052 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 217,600-272,000
N.America share (5%) : 163,850-204,800 infected
Presenting symptoms : 10,880-13,600

Europe share (9%) : 294,930-368,640 infected
Presenting symptoms : 19,500-24,500


24th : 4,506,000-5,632,000(2,429 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 256,000-320,000 (+128,953 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 421,453 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 75,861.
N.America share (5%) : 225,300-281,600 infected
Presenting symptoms : 12,800-16,000

Europe share (9%) : 4No infected
Presenting symptoms : 23,000-28,800

25th : 5,735,000-7,168,000(2,754 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 409,500-512,000


26th : 6,964,000-8,704,000(3,316 confirmed, 705 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 563,No
Serious/critical cases (18%): 114,030



27th : 8,192,000-10,240,000(4,270 confirmed, 705 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 716,500-896,000
N.America share (5%) : 409,600-512,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 35,800-44,800

Europe share (9%) : 737,000-921,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 64,500-80,600


28th : 13,107,000-16,384,000(5,315 confirmed, 705 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 870,000-1,088,000


29th : 18,022,000-22,528,000
Presenting symptoms :1,024,000-1,280,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 207,360.


March(infected people):
1st : 22,937,000-28,672,000
Presenting symptoms : 1,638,500-2,048,000
N.America share (5%) : 1,146,800-1,433,600 infected
Presenting symptoms : 81,925-102,000

Europe share (9%) : 2,064,000-2,580,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 147,400-184,300


2nd : 27,852,000-34,816,000(10,293 confirmed, 706 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,253,000-2,816,000 (+610,807 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 3,145,307 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 566,165.


3rd : 32,768,000-40,960,000(12,632 confirmed, 706 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,867,500-3,584,000
N.America share (5%) : 1,638,400-2,048,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 143,300-179,000

Europe share (9%) : 2,949,000-3,686,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 258,000-322,000


March 8th : 131 mil. to 200 mil. infected.
Presenting symptoms : 11.4 mil to 14.3 mil.

N.America share (5%) : 6.5 mil to 10 mil. infected
Presenting symptoms in N.A : 573k to 716k
Serious cases in N.America : 103k to 128k

Europe share (9%) : 11.7 mil to 18 mil.
Presenting symptoms in Europe : 1 mil. to 1.3 mil.
Serious cases in Europe : 180k to 234k




In the last days, most officially confirmed cases were detected roughly 7 days after symptoms appeared. There were some exceptions, with 15-21 days incubation period, but most were in the 7 day range.

However, a significant number of infected people will be asymptomatic for 12-14 or more days, which is roughly 40-50% of the infected people, at a given date. I will round it up to 50%.

The remaining 50% will be staggered for an additional 7 days, but in order to avoid adding a ton of numbers for every day, I will add them up every 7 days.

Applying this to my model, the number of symptomatic people on February 5th is about half the number of infected people on January 28th.

I will add the serious and critical cases (18% of the total) every 3-4 days and the days with the added staggered cases.

The current model points to an overload of the healthcare systems in Europe and the U.S. to start around mid-March, with Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan to start feeling the pressure at the end of February.

The former model was pointing that the healthcare systems would start feeling the pressure around mid-February for Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan, with Europe and U.S. by early March.

The former model was off by about 2 weeks.


The new model will have its critical period between March 2nd-March 8th.

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