..

It's a bit more than a thunderstorm.
But it won't be that bad.

Bonnie how symbolic a song lamenting a lost love at sea.

Yeah they may have named that one accordingly.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...BONNIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

Jeff Masters via WWL radio "70% chance of Bonnie reorganizing in the Gulf of Mexico."

[link to www.hardcoreweather.com]

Quoting Jeff Masters..

Intensity Forecast for Bonnie
Bonnie has been disrupted by its passage over land, and it will take at least six hours for the storm to reorganize once it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico tonight. This process will be hindered by the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to Bonnie, it will bring high wind shear of about 20 - 30 knots to the storm. This will allow for only slow intensification, or may even destroy Bonnie. Bonnie is unlikely to intensify to more than a 50 mph tropical storm, and I give a 30% chance it will dissipate over the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall. The GFDL model predicts Bonnie could hit the Gulf Coast as a 50 mph tropical storm, but the other major models such as the HWRF, GFS, ECMWF, and NOGAPS show a much weaker storm. I don't give Bonnie any chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of Bonnie being a hurricane at 2 pm Saturday at 4% (5pm advisory.)

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher, from the 5pm EDT advisory:

Buras, LA 30%
New Orleans 28%
Mobile, AL 37%
Pensacola, FL 30%

[link to www.hardcoreweather.com]

Last Edited by RTS on 07/23/2010 05:31 PM

Current WV images..

[link to www.goes.noaa.gov]

[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

This tells me that the upper level low is actually enhancing the storm. What’s your read? I am also seeing data that the Upper Level Low is moving off and allowing the storm to build in strength. Your input?

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 2100 UTC DURING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS OF JUL 24 AT 0000 UTC...BONNIE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 26.4N 82.5W MOVING WNW NEAR 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR 27N92W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ALOFT INTO BONNIE AND FURTHER ENHANCING THE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRODUCING A
BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

I honestly don't know..I have been following hurricanes since Alex and go by the real time images and whatever expert opinion is in the weather forums I like..

Last Edited by RTS on 07/24/2010 04:51 AM

surface wind probability

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by RTS on 07/24/2010 05:03 AM

latest tracks..

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

[link to i792.photobucket.com]

Last Edited by RTS on 07/24/2010 05:00 AM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

BONNIE IS CURRENTLY COMPRISED OF A CONVECTIONLESS SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN A LARGER-SCALE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM HAS
FOUND WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM FORCE NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT IS
HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA DOES SHOW A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1010 MB. BASED ON THIS CONFLICTING INFORMATION...
BONNIE REMAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.

THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 295/15. BONNIE REMAINS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND EAST OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COMBINATION IS FORECAST TO STEER
THE STORM TO A LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ALL THE
TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE MODELS
CLUSTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTS. AFTER LANDFALL...BONNIE OR ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE
RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT BASED UPON
THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...AND LIES JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE
CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
BONNIE REMAINS IN A LESS THAN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...CONFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...
AND UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR ENCROACHING ON THE CYCLONE. MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY SHOWING WEAKENING OR
DISSIPATION BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH ONLY THE SHIPS AND LGEM SHOWING
ANY INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
PREMISE THAT ENOUGH CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP TO CAUSE SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING BEFORE BONNIE REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AN
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW OR OPEN TROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY DUE TO A
LACK OF CONVECTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 26.4N 83.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 27.7N 85.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 29.2N 88.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 30.5N 90.5W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/0000Z 31.4N 91.8W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/0000Z 34.0N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Last Edited by RTS on 07/24/2010 04:52 AM

Stronger Drugs?
Awwright bout time someone got something right......

I was worried in exactly the same way over Alex..hopefully I am wrong again...looks big to me tho and the same storms keep reoccurring in the Midwest frequently lately. Another big one tonight over Minnesota again..same situation almost every day lately...

latest comments from forum..

[link to www.hardcoreweather.com]

"CDO with limited environmental conditions for sustained outflow? I have a bad feeling about this. Folks in SE louisiana need to be ready for a microcaine. They spin up fast and leave a mark.

Say bye bye to the name Bonnie... she will leave a mark."

..........


"I thought there was high shear. Doesn't make sense to have a round CDO (which there is) in an environment with high shear."


TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM ON SATURDAY AND APPROACH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST...LAKESHORE AREAS...AND
OVER THE GULF WATERS...WHERE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE ARE POSSIBLE. STORM SURGE
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST LEVELS
EXPECTED IN BAY AREAS AND INLETS ALONG SOUTHEAST FACING SHORELINES.

Last Edited by RTS on 07/24/2010 05:19 AM

2-4 feet of stormsruge with oil and corexit is not a fucking good thing :(

No one will leave cause its been downgraded.

they are saying it will might be upgraded to a Tropical Storm but it looks like it's weakening right now...

[link to satellite.moutoncoveweather.com]

Last Edited by RTS on 07/24/2010 05:42 AM

[link to www.srh.noaa.gov]

the storm appears to be intensifying....

[link to images.intellicast.com]

forums...

[link to forums.accuweather.com]

[link to www.hardcoreweather.com]

[link to www.storm2k.org]

Last Edited by RTS on 07/24/2010 10:25 AM

I hope these storms don't continually parade up to the ohio valley dumping acid/toxic rain on everything/one in its path.

Another doom bust.

Oops.

...BONNIE COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING...



[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

I think you are right, AC, I think Bonnie is an excuse to clear the gulf of ships, etc. (oil clean up, coast guard, fishermen, etc.) for the big boom. All the while leaving folks at home because everyone will think Bonnie's no big deal and not evacuating (more casualties). I think Bonnie is a cover for what ever heinous crap they are planning. They've already got the military vessels out of the area last week under the guise of fighting drugs in Costa Rica. They are planning the big shit to go down soon. All we can do is pray their plans go to crap and nothing they want to have happen happens, ya know.

bump.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON BONNIE AND THE
CYCLONE HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DATA FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE OF THE CENTER HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY RISING AND WIND REPORTS BARELY SUPPORT AN INTENSITY
OF 25 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING AND THE DEPRESSION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE WITH 25
KNOTS UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. SINCE INTERMITTENT BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP...HOWEVER...STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER TO THE
COAST. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THEREAFTER.

A BLEND OF SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FIXES INDICATE THAT
BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15
KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST.

BECAUSE BONNIE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY...ALL COASTAL
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

WE HAVE TO GIVE CREDIT TO DYNAMICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS THAT ALL ALONG
FORECAST THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND OF BONNIE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 28.0N 86.7W 25 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 29.1N 88.7W 25 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 30.5N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0000Z 31.5N 92.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 26/1200Z 33.0N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED