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The UE Numbers Game

 
DaJavoo
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08/09/2010 06:33 AM
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The UE Numbers Game
:UE710:

[link to www.shadowstats.com]

The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.

The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.


Of course, the numbers are adjusted after the fact and highly suspect to begin with ~ so, what i usually do is take the U6 as the lowest and take a SWAG of adding U3 to the SGS for a more accurate ballpark.

When 60%+ of Americans are using foodstamps/on public assistance/UE bennies ~ my hunch is the UE stat is probably half of that.


Last Edited by DaJavoo on 08/09/2010 07:25 AM
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WizzleDizzle

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08/09/2010 06:44 AM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
I have no idea why anyone would buy the official numbers. The are twisted, misused, and contorted to hide the reality.
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He Might Be Right?

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08/09/2010 06:48 AM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
:UE710:

When 60%+ of Americans are using foodstamps ~ my hunch is the UE stat is probably half of that.
 Quoting: DaJavoo

Good Morning.....60%...that seems quite high?...where would one find that number?...
Anonymous Coward
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08/09/2010 06:49 AM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
I have no idea why anyone would buy the official numbers. The are twisted, misused, and contorted to hide the reality.
 Quoting: WizzleDizzle


I agree and I think they are doing the same thing about the money they print - I think the deficit is much more than they declare
DrEaMz

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08/09/2010 07:09 AM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
:UE710:

[link to www.shadowstats.com]

The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.

The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.


Of course, the numbers are adjusted after the fact and highly suspect to begin with ~ so, what i usually do is take the U6 as the lowest and take a SWAG of adding U3 to the SGS for a more accurate ballpark.

When 60%+ of Americans are using foodstamps ~ my hunch is the UE stat is probably half of that.

 Quoting: DaJavoo

and the other half is black people
"Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one."~Albert Einstein
PhennommennonnModerator
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08/09/2010 07:16 AM

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Re: The UE Numbers Game
thanks daj - members have been askn for the real numbers. we kinda depend on you to keep us posted. thanks bud.

:beer67:
political correctness is a doctrine.... fostered by a delusional, illogical minority...... and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media; which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end.
Anonymous Coward
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08/09/2010 07:16 AM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
I have no idea why anyone would buy the official numbers.
 Quoting: WizzleDizzle


cuz Lee Harvey Oswals acted alone, 9/11 was not an inside job & 'merikan military Imperialism is to keep us safe & free

cruise
PhennommennonnModerator
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08/09/2010 07:16 AM

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Re: The UE Numbers Game
so we hit the 22%. sonofabitch
political correctness is a doctrine.... fostered by a delusional, illogical minority...... and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media; which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end.
DaJavoo  (OP)

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08/09/2010 07:27 AM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
:UE710:

When 60%+ of Americans are using foodstamps ~ my hunch is the UE stat is probably half of that.

Good Morning.....60%...that seems quite high?...where would one find that number?...
 Quoting: He Might Be Right?



I may be recalling a total % of all folks on the public dole, and have adjusted my post to reflect that.

I am trying to locate my reference ~ thanks for the correction!


DJthumup
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DaJavoo  (OP)

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08/09/2010 07:29 AM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
thanks daj - members have been askn for the real numbers. we kinda depend on you to keep us posted. thanks bud.

:beer67:
 Quoting: Phennommennonn



Glad to be of help ~ the info has made us numb and posts over the last couple of months have drawn a 'blah' response, so I have been slack in getting this chart up.


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OTOC

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08/09/2010 07:30 AM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
so we hit the 22%. sonofabitch
 Quoting: Phennommennonn


That's assuming it's not a trick.

Give a low, medium and high estimate to distract you from thinking that it could very well be higher.

Last Edited by OTOC on 08/09/2010 07:30 AM
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Anonymous Coward
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08/09/2010 07:36 AM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
:UE710:

When 60%+ of Americans are using foodstamps ~ my hunch is the UE stat is probably half of that.

Good Morning.....60%...that seems quite high?...where would one find that number?...



I may be recalling a total % of all folks on the public dole, and have adjusted my post to reflect that.

I am trying to locate my reference ~ thanks for the correction!


:DJthumup:
 Quoting: DaJavoo



I've seen the figure of around 40% in several places
DaJavoo  (OP)

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08/09/2010 07:36 AM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
so we hit the 22%. sonofabitch


That's assuming it's not a trick.

Give a low, medium and high estimate to distract you from thinking that it could very well be higher.
 Quoting: OTOC



Zactly ~ even SGS has to start with the 'reported' numbers ~ the BLS 'tweaks' the numbers AFTER the reports are issued, but the 'stats' are never adjusted!

Meaning: with a high jobs base, the UE stat can be 'low' ~ however, when corrected with a lower base, the UE number is actually higher ~ but the published stat of record is never corrected.

The BLS is doing the shell game with the base stats. It's all bullshit.

A number of commentators cover this well:

George Ure
Bob Chapman
et.al.

:DJrebelli:
DaJavoo  (OP)

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08/09/2010 07:40 AM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
:UE710:

When 60%+ of Americans are using foodstamps ~ my hunch is the UE stat is probably half of that.

Good Morning.....60%...that seems quite high?...where would one find that number?...



I may be recalling a total % of all folks on the public dole, and have adjusted my post to reflect that.

I am trying to locate my reference ~ thanks for the correction!


DJthumup



I've seen the figure of around 40% in several places
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 631426


It is difficult to get an accurate number ~ consider:

All Social Security recipients (retired, disabled, etc)
All state aid to dependent families/children (school aid)
All food stamp users
ALL WIC
All Medicaid
All TANF
All UE recipients


Last Edited by DaJavoo on 08/09/2010 07:44 AM
:DJrebelli:
Anonymous Coward
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08/09/2010 07:46 AM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
I have no idea why anyone would buy the official numbers. The are twisted, misused, and contorted to hide the reality.


I agree and I think they are doing the same thing about the money they print - I think the deficit is much more than they declare
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1062647



I am curious what Israels unemployment rate is?

All I could find quickly:

[link to www.israelnationalnews.com]

The news service added that Israeli unemployment is likely to drop to 7 percent in 2010, down significantly from 7.7 percent in 2009. The Bank of Israel expects unemployment to drop to 6.7 percent in 2011
He Might Be Right?

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08/09/2010 07:52 AM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
All Social Security recipients (retired, disabled, etc)
All state aid to dependent families/children (school aid)
All food stamp users
All UE recipients

 Quoting: DaJavoo

I understand Daj, and I was digging around during this brief break, and it maybe right insofar as the total.....

quite scary as well I have been reading so much in the last few weeks of countless States and Cities cutting back on everything from police service and fire departments and everything in between.....

and the real danger now seems to be deflation, as it begins to rear it's ugly head....

maybe that's why all these "Gates" and "Buffett's" are giving away all their billions, because in a few short weeks its only gonna be millions!!....

Last Edited by He Might Be Right? on 08/09/2010 07:52 AM
Anonymous Coward
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Israel
08/09/2010 07:54 AM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
I am curious what Israels unemployment rate is?

All I could find quickly:

[link to www.israelnationalnews.com]

The news service added that Israeli unemployment is likely to drop to 7 percent in 2010, down significantly from 7.7 percent in 2009. The Bank of Israel expects unemployment to drop to 6.7 percent in 2011
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1061845


Our financial situation seems to be excellent - we have low unemployment. But the truth is - we have a housing bubble (average apartment price is about $ 300,000) and probably a credit bubble.
Anonymous Coward
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08/09/2010 07:58 AM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
Over 80 years ago George Orwell speculated that the UK government came up with unemployment insurance as a way to disguise the real number of unemployed and make the economy appear to be less bad than it really was.

La plus ça change...
Anonymous Coward
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08/09/2010 08:00 AM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
I've seen the figure of around 40% in several places


It is difficult to get an accurate number ~ consider:

All Social Security recipients (retired, disabled, etc)
All state aid to dependent families/children (school aid)
All food stamp users
ALL WIC
All Medicaid
All TANF
All UE recipients

 Quoting: DaJavoo


And then there's under-employment - such as laid-off engineers working at Home Depot or recent university grads working at Starbucks...
Chawlee

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Switzerland
08/09/2010 08:21 AM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
Thanks Jarhead!!

It's nice to have some one on the 6's
DaJavoo  (OP)

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08/09/2010 08:51 AM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
Thanks Jarhead!!

It's nice to have some one on the 6's
 Quoting: Chawlee

DJoorah
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Anonymous Coward
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08/09/2010 10:53 AM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
State tax receipts appear to be the only valid indicator for unemployment and strength of the economy. Considering 46 some states are near bankruptcy I think you can safely assume a lot more de-leveraging must occur across the board. So far the de-leveraging has been picked up gratis U.S. taxpayers. Perhaps the mythical Bond Zilla will one day rear its ugly head?

godzilla
DaJavoo  (OP)

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08/09/2010 10:58 AM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
State tax receipts appear to be the only valid indicator for unemployment and strength of the economy. Considering 46 some states are near bankruptcy I think you can safely assume a lot more de-leveraging must occur across the board. So far the de-leveraging has been picked up gratis U.S. taxpayers. Perhaps the mythical Bond Zilla will one day rear its ugly head?

godzilla
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 961432



Hard to get investors to pony up for bonds when the ability to repay is severely constrained.

And of course, there's the whole FDIC boondoggle smoke-and-mirrors over the bank insolvency issue.


[link to www.fdic.gov]

DJbuckx
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ExhaleAeonVolts

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08/09/2010 12:59 PM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
 Quoting: DaJavoo



Even if we bought the official "RED LINE" story, the numbers have still climbed substantially, within the confines of the Obama Administration...
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doublestandard

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08/09/2010 05:51 PM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
i KNOW Western Michigan's Unemployment Rate is OVER 22% (No Matter What!) The Government Numbers Are Complete Horse Shit!!!! ohappy
DaJavoo  (OP)

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08/09/2010 06:11 PM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
:UE710:

[link to www.shadowstats.com]





Even if we bought the official "RED LINE" story, the numbers have still climbed substantially, within the confines of the Obama Administration...
 Quoting: ExhaleAeonVolts



Yup ~ none of those high dollar stims has done jack to lower the UE rate.

:DJrebelli:
Eagle # 1
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08/09/2010 06:20 PM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
He Might Be Right could ALSO be WRONG !

We are into the first phase of hyperinflation as far as food, oil, gas and commodities are concerned. TRUE, house prices are down, but they were over inflated to start with !

Peace.

Eagle
Island Ray

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08/09/2010 06:45 PM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
hf
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ray16309

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08/09/2010 06:56 PM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
alone
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He Might Be Right?

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08/09/2010 07:15 PM
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Re: The UE Numbers Game
He Might Be Right could ALSO be WRONG !

We are into the first phase of hyperinflation as far as food, oil, gas and commodities are concerned. TRUE, house prices are down, but they were over inflated to start with !

Peace.

Eagle
 Quoting: Eagle # 1 1063211

checked the price of gold say in the last 10 years!...it's always used as a hedge, and let's not forget the T-bill's!!





GLP