SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

A filament eruption near region 2741 was observed in AIA imagery, directly
preceding the peak of the B4.0 flare. LASCO C2 and C3 imagery show a halo
CME first observed in LASCO C2 at 20:36 on May 12. Based on STEREO COR2 A
imagery, the CME speed is around 530 km/s. Since the filament eruption took
place near the centre of the solar disc, we expect the ICME to arrive at
Earth, in the second half of May 16.

[link to www.sidc.be]
[link to www.sidc.be]
[link to services.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Real Time Solar Wind
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Last Edited by joinca on 05/13/2019 10:10 AM

thank you! i'm glad its not something bigger

MULTIPLE CMEs ARE COMING: Three and possibly four CMEs are en route to Earth following a series of explosions near sunspot AR2741. The most potent so far occurred on May 12th when a filament of magnetism surrounding the sunspot became unstable and erupted.

The blast zone was more than 220,000 km in diameter: [link to spaceweather.com]

Similar eruptions on May 10th, 11th and 13th combined with this one to produce a train of faint coronal mass ejections (CMEs) heading in our direction. The incoming CMEs are lightweights compared to the bright massive CMEs typically seen during Solar Maximum. However, their combined effect could rattle Earth's magnetic field.

NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% to 60% chance of minor G1-class geomagnetic storms on May 15th and 16th. Isolated periods of stronger G2-class storms are possible as well.

[link to spaceweather.com]

Rare Blue Auroras over Canada

May 11, 2019: Northern Lights are usually green, sometimes red. Those are the colors we see when oxygen is hit by electrons raining down from space during a geomagnetic storm. On Friday night, however, Harlan Thomas of Calgary, Alberta, witnessed a different color: deep-blue.

“To see these incredible blue pillars was out of this world,” says Thomas.

In auroras, blue is a sign of nitrogen. Energetic particles striking ionized molecular nitrogen (N2+) at very high altitudes can produce a blue glow rarely seen during auroral displays. In this case, it was the afterglow of a CME impact.

[link to spaceweatherarchive.com (secure)]

[link to solarham.net]


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

Screen shot GIF of Iswa [link to imgur.com (secure)]

crazy wave

we came from k5 down to 0 ...

and now we waing that dense wave to arrive in 2 hours ?

Hi, Simple! I searched Cactus & SEEDS last week and couldn't even find an Earth-directed CME, yet we had a brief GeoStorm from a C7 flare.

This time I found 2 faint halo CMEs but the flares were only B3 level, so I don't expect any strong impact effects-- maybe some nice aurora in Norway. Spring is aurora season after all.

SEEDS movie of 5/12 CME:
[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

SEEDS movie of 5/13 CME:
[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

No Doom this time, haha.

For comparison, here's a serious CME-

Yikes, first strikes a doozy. Can’t link but it’s kp 6!! This is from the c 9.9 flare they said was going to miss us if you ask me.

Last Edited by Isis One on 05/14/2019 02:28 AM

I was walking this morning and a transformer blew a few yards from me , my heart stopped

We are having a surprise G3 storm currently and the other CME’s are supposed to hit tomorrow.
[link to www.solarham.net]

@NorthLightAlert

Terrific night for #aurora last night. Boulder measured a period of KP=7 (G3 storm!) and we're seeing reports from Canada, Northern US, New Zealand & Tasmania. Thx for sharing your pix and making this community awesome y'all. (Storm is over now, but more coming Wed and Thurs)
[link to twitter.com (secure)]

@ID_Photo_Graphy

Real time video of last night's Northern Lights at Lily Pond in Hancock Township, MI around 3am.
If you turn on the sound, you can hear crickets and frogs

video
[link to twitter.com (secure)]

5 Earth-directed CMEs, G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm

A several degree long solar filament south of the Region 2741 disappeared by approximately 15:14 UTC on May 13, 2019. Initial analysis suggests an Earth-directed component is likely with this Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). This is the fifth Earth-directed CME since May 6 (May 6 1x, May 10 x 2, May 12 1x, May 13 1x).

Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow, but mildly enhanced regime on May 13. A transient feature in the solar wind was captured by the DSCOVR spacecraft at approximately 22:30 UTC. Total field increased to 12 nT, and the Bz component underwent a southward deflection of -10 nT. Wind speeds also increased during this time to a peak of 481 km/s at 23:18 UTC.

At approximately 03:01 UTC on May 14, the DSCOVR spacecraft observed the likely arrival of a CME that departed the Sun on May 10. In reaction to the CME arrival, the Bz component began a period of sustained southward deflection near -15 nT, total field strength increased slightly to 15 nT, and wind speeds increased further to nearly 550 km/s.

Geomagnetic K-index of 6 threshold (G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm) was reached at 05:45 UTC on May 14 followed by K-index of 7 (G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm) at 08:59 UTC. ...

Magnitude Mw 7.5 same moment k7

Region NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
Date time 2019-05-14 12:58:25.4 UTC
Location 4.08 S ; 152.59 E
Depth 10 km
Distances 842 km NE of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea / pop: 284,000 / local time: 22:58:25.4 2019-05-14
47 km NE of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea / pop: 26,300 / local time: 22:58:25.4 2019-05-14

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INCREASING CHANCE OF GEOMAGNETIC STORMS: NOAA forecasters have boosted the odds of geomagnetic storms this week to 75% as a series of CMEs approaches Earth. The action begins on May 15th when the first CME is expected to arrive and could continue through May 17th as additional CMEs follow. Storms levels will almost certainly reach category G1 (minor) with isolated periods of G2 (moderate) storming as well. Auroras could cross the US-Canadian border in the nights ahead.

[link to spaceweather.com]

I was shocked we had a G3 storm today from such a weak CME. Even stranger was how brief the disturbance was. CME passages typically last 8-24 hours. Veery interesting....Evidently NOAA/SWPC was caught by surprise, too.

Solar Wind 24 hr Summary...

Solar wind parameters were indicative of a likely, unobserved CME
arrival; preceded by possible CIR influences and south polar CH HSS
connection. Total IMF strength unsteadily increased to a maximum value
of 15 nT by 14/0231 UTC. Field strength remained at similar levels,
before it decreased after 14/0630 UTC. The Bz component swung prolonged
and pronounced southward from about 14/0300-0630 UTC. Total field
strength and Bz signatures during this time frame, and particularly
afterwards, were suggestive of CME arrival and passage. Solar wind speed
increased unsteadily from around 460-475 at the start of the period, to
near 575 km/s by around 14/0800 UTC. Solar wind speed slowly and
unsteadily decreased afterwards. The phi angle was variable between
sectors.

While the nature of what transpired in the solar wind this reporting
period is highly speculative and uncertain, density signatures and
temperature profiles also corroborate transient arrival and passage.

.Forecast...
Analysis suggests the transient influences from 14 May may be from
an unobserved, earlier CME, and may not be the early arrival of the
CME events from late on 10 May. Because of the uncertainty involved from
what transpired on 14 May and what was originally anticipated, the solar
wind environment is still expected to become enhanced and disturbed
again on day one (15 May) with the anticipated arrival of the CME events
from late on 10 May. Later on day two (16 May) another CME observed on
12 May is expected to arrive, further enhancing solar wind parameters.
Early on day three (17 May), yet another CME that took place on 13 May,
is expected to effect the environment and cause another disturbance in
the solar wind field.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field responded with storm levels up to G3 (Strong)
levels in reaction to the disturbed and enhanced solar wind environment
from 14/0300-0900 UTC. The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active
afterwards in response to the variable, but still enhanced solar wind
state.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels, with a
chance for G2 (Moderate) levels on day one (15 May) in reaction to CME
effects. Day two (16 May) is likely to respond with storm levels up to
G2, with a chance for G3 (Strong) due to expected reactions from another
CME. Day three (17 may) is likely to experience up to G1 storm levels,
with continuing chance for G2 conditions in response to yet another CME.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

I'm sorry, but this woman is a kook. If X-flares don't cause EQ's & Volcanic eruptions, I don't think B-flares do, either. An M-flare is 200x more powerful and most don't even cause a geomagnetic ripple. Nibiru is a completely fictional planet and brown dwarves have absolutely no effect on Earth or Solar activity.

Uh, don't she know the Earth is a flat pancake?

And you think you understand and full knowledge of Sun and everything else in the universe?

keep an open mind, no wonder you were surprised by G3 and you will be more and more surprised going forward

The shields are down

Omg, G, that had to be awful! I had one blow outside the house on the pole but at least I was inside. Hope you’re ok.

I am in Tasmania. Should we see aurora's tonight???

I just take what I need and leave what I don't. : )

Solar Storm Slam Dance | Space Weather News 05.15.2019

The Sun gets crazy busy this week with multiple solar storms that are inbound to earth! We should feel the first of the direct hits sometime May 15 and storing should continue into May 16 and possibly through the 17th before things begin to calm down. All this rukus is due to regions 2740 and 2741 that have been firing non-sotp solar storms ever since before they even came into Earth view. Lucky for aurora photographers, they have already given us G1 and G3 level storms with aurora dipping down as far south as Wyoming and Colorado in the USA. Learn more about these regions, how they are boosting emergency and amateur radio propagation back into the marginal range, and why they could mess with your GPS reception this week!


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Nothing now, but you can check for updates in these links...

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

[link to earth.nullschool.net (secure)]

@ZonePhysics
Spectacular aurora over Alaska
[link to twitter.com (secure)]

Is it real??

we had blue aurora a few days back , now this...

these colors are only visible near the FLAME , meaning ? use science of flame and oxygen , and go through an article sometime back concerning methane on mars and its disappearance

[link to earthsky.org (secure)]

It looks like code