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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
Isis One

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02/28/2021 12:05 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
SDO latest movie--- lots of loops and action from our sunspot...

AIA 131a:
[link to sdodata.oma.be]
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


Magnificent!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Helios Maximus

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02/28/2021 02:00 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Impulsive C3.9 flare just now.

Solar Demon:
[link to solardemon.oma.be]

GOES X-Rays:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

banana2banana2banana2

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 02/28/2021 02:47 AM
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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02/28/2021 09:07 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
SPACE WEATHER ALERT....
siren2

Something is coming in strong.

It may be a CIR (co-rotating interaction region) arriving ahead of the expected CH stream or maybe a stealth CME transient. The Density level in the solar winds are up near 35 protons/cm. This is higher than many weak CMEs we've seen. The SW speed is still low, but I expect a storm is almost here. NOAA did issue an Alert for a G1 storm from the hi-speed Coronal Hole, but I wasn't expecting such a high density.

March is officially Aurora Season so we may get a little show tonight.

DSCVR Solar Winds:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

GOES Magnetometer (new and improved, LOL):

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

aurora-man
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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02/28/2021 09:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
We did have a CME from the C 3.9 flare. It's not Earth-directed but I see a small puff which may be headed our way.

SEEDS CME movie:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

explosionahhh

SWPC Forecast Discussion-

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 2804 (N18W87, Dso/beta) produced a C3/sf
at 28/0645 UTC. Associated with the C-flare was yet another slow-moving,
narrow CME signature which does not appear to have an Earth-directed
component.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for
C-class flares on 28 Feb and 01 Mar. Very low levels are expected for 02
Mar in the absence of spot groups after the departure of 2804 around the
West limb.
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
joinca

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02/28/2021 10:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


JOHandWavingsun02
"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
Helios Maximus

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02/28/2021 10:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Spaceweather.com has a NOAA forecast for a 60% chance of SEVERE geomagnetic storm for high latitudes in the next 48 hours.

[link to spaceweather.com (secure)]

Solar wind has crossed the threshold above 400 km/s.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3841
Issue Time: 2021 Mar 01 0256 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2021 Mar 01 0300 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Mar 01 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

The auroral oval has gone from green to yellow to orange in the past hour.

Aurora 30-min forecast:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

SWPC Discussion--

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, were at
nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength was below 5nT. Solar wind
speeds were between 350 and 380 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly
oriented in the positive sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to see increased disturbances
shortly. The onset of influence from a negative polarity CH HSS is
expected to cause enhancements in tot
al magnetic field strength and
solar wind speeds on 01-03 Mar.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to increase with CH HSS activity
anticipated for 01-03 Mar. Unsettled to active conditions are expected
for 01 Mar. 02 March is expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a
minor storm (G1) likely late in the UT day. Unsettled to active
conditions are forecast to return on 03 Mar.


The Bz polarity has been steadily negative for 5 hours. If this trend continues we may get a G2 storm.

Solar Winds:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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02/28/2021 10:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


Howdy, friend!hicheers

It's like you were reading my mind...or maybe I was reading yours, haha.
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
joinca

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02/28/2021 11:02 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


glassesoffloop
"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
Anonymous Coward
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02/28/2021 11:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1309
Issue Time: 2021 Mar 01 0401 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2021 Mar 01 0359 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
Anonymous Coward
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02/28/2021 11:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: joinca


That's kind of pretty far in!
Anonymous Coward
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02/28/2021 11:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
siren2siren2siren2

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 439
Issue Time: 2021 Mar 01 0411 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2021 Mar 01 0410 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Mar 01 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
Simple27

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02/28/2021 11:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

~*Ride the Wave*~
joinca

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02/28/2021 11:18 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
Helios Maximus

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02/28/2021 11:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
siren2siren2siren2

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 439
Issue Time: 2021 Mar 01 0411 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2021 Mar 01 0410 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Mar 01 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78272159


Holy crap! I just went outside for a smoke and we went from Kp3 to Kp6 already.

I'm so glad I predicted it 12 minutes ago. WTF?
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Anonymous Coward
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02/28/2021 11:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
siren2siren2siren2

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 477
Issue Time: 2021 Mar 01 0421 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2021 Mar 01 0420 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
Anonymous Coward
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02/28/2021 11:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
siren2siren2siren2

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 439
Issue Time: 2021 Mar 01 0411 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2021 Mar 01 0410 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Mar 01 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78272159


Holy crap! I just went outside for a smoke and we went from Kp3 to Kp6 already.

I'm so glad I predicted it 12 minutes ago. WTF?
 Quoting: Helios Maximus



It's still updating too!
Reluctant energy

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02/28/2021 11:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Inner coronal reduction is going to allow these big CHs to have a big affect. How much redaction of minor coronal blockage makes a difference???? It's gonna get a lot colder than people think In the years to come. Brazil is gonna be the place to be folks. Great Thread there's only a handful on here that are worth a shit
nothing cannot live forever - hawking
joinca

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02/28/2021 11:29 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
Anonymous Coward
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02/28/2021 11:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Just from February 17

Solar flare warning: Michio Kaku fears 'we're sitting ducks' for crippling solar activity

[link to www.express.co.uk (secure)]
Helios Maximus

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02/28/2021 11:39 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Potsdam GFZ Kp nowcast above 5:

[link to isdc.gfz-potsdam.de (secure)]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
joinca

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02/28/2021 11:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
And down south as well...



"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
joinca

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03/01/2021 12:16 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
Anonymous Coward
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03/01/2021 12:20 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I think Mercury just moved in alignment , blocking out SUVI

[link to weather.msfc.nasa.gov (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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03/01/2021 12:21 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]
Helios Maximus

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03/01/2021 01:58 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I'm beyond frustrated. So many of my old links no longer work. Did Bill Gates and Tim Cooke wreck the internet? I think so.

However, the Kyoto DST index seems to show nearly 100 point deviation in the magnetic field. You have to look closely.....

[link to wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp]

K-indices from Norway:

[link to flux.phys.uit.no]

The Barrow, Alaska chart looks extremely active:

[link to flux.phys.uit.no]

Keep in mind, NOAA predicted the worst storming isn't until March 2nd!!!!

Either their timing was off (which wouldn't surprise me) or there's a lot more storming ahead.

spock
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Isis One

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03/01/2021 02:00 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I'm beyond frustrated. So many of my old links no longer work. Did Bill Gates and Tim Cooke wreck the internet? I think so.

However, the Kyoto DST index seems to show nearly 100 point deviation in the magnetic field. You have to look closely.....

[link to wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp]

K-indices from Norway:

[link to flux.phys.uit.no]

The Barrow, Alaska chart looks extremely active:

[link to flux.phys.uit.no]

Keep in mind, NOAA predicted the worst storming isn't until March 2nd!!!!

Either their timing was off (which wouldn't surprise me) or there's a lot more storming ahead.

spock
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


This is going to be interesting!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Simple27

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03/01/2021 01:22 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Surprising forecasters, a moderate G2-class geomagnetic storm occured during the early hours of March 1st. "The sky literally exploded over me with a gyrating green ribbon of color," reports Harlan Thomas, who sends this picture from Kananaskis Country, Alberta:

https://imgur.com/tmN556Z


What caused this storm? A significant crack opened in Earth's magnetic field, and remained open for more than 5 hours. Bright auroras spread across much of Canada and Alaska as solar wind surged through the opening. According to our records, this was the strongest geomagnetic storm since a G3 event in May 2019.

More auroras are in the offing. Earth is entering a high-speed stream of solar wind flowing from a southern hole in the sun's atmosphere. This should unsettle the geomagnetic field and ring the Arctic Circle with green lights for another day or two.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]
~*Ride the Wave*~
Simple27

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03/01/2021 01:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
https://imgur.com/QMp7aU2

~*Ride the Wave*~
Simple27

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Geomagnetic Storms Hit Earth Today - Cracks Now Opening in Earth's Magnetic Field


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
~*Ride the Wave*~
Helios Maximus

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03/01/2021 08:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
IT WAS A CME-

My initial hunch was correct. Apparently a 'stealth CME' caused last nights G2 storm. I posted the SWPC forecast above and there was no mention of an incoming CME. SURPRISE! sunraspberrysun

SWPC has come to the same conclusion now. They're still expecting a coronal hole stream to arrive.

SWPC Forecast Discussion-

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters became enhanced from approximately 28/2300-01/1530
UTC due to possible CME effects.
Total field reached a maximum of 14 nT
at 01/0328 UTC while the Bz component reached a maximum southward
deflection of -13 nT. Solar wind speed increased briefly to a maximum of
538 km/s at 01/0902 UTC. Phi angle was variable throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced once again on 02
Mar as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position. HSS
conditions are expected to persist through 03 Mar and slowly taper off
on 04 Mar. Solar wind speeds are expected to be mostly in the 500-550
km/s range based on recurrent values.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field increased to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm
levels, observed during the 01/0300-0600 synoptic period, in response to
sustained periods of southward Bz and a brief solar wind speed increase
to 538 km/s. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed during the second
half of the UTC day.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to increase to unsettled to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on 02 Mar in response to the arrival of a
negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 03
Mar as HSS conditions persist followed by quiet to unsettled levels on
04 Mar.


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779





GLP