SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

M1.1 Solar Flare (4/19/2021)


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

I followed this nonsense a few years ago
fact is - unless its a large earth directed X class
there's nothing to it.

Since yesterday's M-flare from AR2816, every flare has been from growing region 2817 in the NW. Two C-flares and 14 B-flares today.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 111 Issued at 0030Z on 21 Apr 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 20 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2816 S24E08 262 0110 Cao 09 10 Beta
2817 N18W62 333 0140 Dai 07 13 Beta
2818 S17E66 203 0090 Hsx 01 01 Alpha

Latest HMI images:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

Solarsoft Latest Events:

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

Yesterday's CME seems to be small and not Earth-directed. Perhaps a slight chance of a glancing blow.

SEEDS SoHO movie of CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Solar Demon wasn't working last night. Thankfully it's back online today.

Yet another view of the M1.1 flare:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

The Oracle's Cookie

Earth-facing AR2816 just produced a C 3.8 flare. Watch for possible CME.

Solar Demon movie:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

GONG (Learmonth) pic:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Yesterday's NOAA Sunspot Number of 54 is the second highest of Cycle 25. It reached a high of 84 back around Thankgiving (late Nov.)

Solen.info:

[link to www.solen.info]

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 112 Issued at 0030Z on 22 Apr 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 21 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2816 S24W06 263 0100 Cao 09 09 Beta
2817 N18W79 336 0180 Dao 10 07 Beta
2818 S17E52 205 0040 Hsx 01 01 Alpha

Small Earth-directed CME en route from 2816 C-flare.

STEREO Ahead C2 difference image:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

Movie:
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

A C 2.3 flare from AR2817.

Movie:
[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

GOES X-Ray Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR2816 has produced another solar flare--this time a C3.8-class eruption on April 22nd (0435 UT). A pulse of X-rays and UV radiation ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, producing a minor shortwave radio blackout over southeast Asia. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded a shock wave rippling away from the blast site; this suggests a CME is heading our way. Stay tuned for updates.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

There's been 7 recent C-class solar flares from 2817

C2.7 [link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

C1.7 [link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

C2.3 [link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

C4.3 [link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

C1.4 [link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

C3.7 [link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

C2.8 [link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

C-Flare and CME
April 22, 2021 @ 09:25 UTC

A long duration C-Flare around AR 2816 early this morning beginning at approximately 04:15 UTC (Apr 22) looks to have produced a possible Earth directed coronal mass ejection (CME). This short video by SDO/AIA 193 shows a wave of plasma leaving the flare site. The event was associated with Type II and IV radio emissions, and a CME is visible in STEREO Ahead coronagraph imagery. More updates regarding this later today.

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Apr 22 0430 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 763 km/s

https://imgur.com/uUdmln4

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

UPDATE: CME appears to be Earth-directed (nothing extreme though)

SEEDS SoHO movie:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

CACTus has it as a very slow (330km/s) Type II Halo:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

WOW, I haven't seen that sawtooth wave of x-rays in a long time. I sense that AR2817 may pop an M or an X-flare. It may be from beyond the limb when / if it happens.

SDO 24-hr movie:

[link to sdodata.oma.be]

NASA/JPL To Hold Asteroid Impact Drill Next Week in Conjunction with ESA and the United Nations.

From JPL Press Release--

JPL’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies will lead the hypothetical impact scenario to see how international agencies respond to an actual impact prediction.
During the week of April 26, members of NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) will participate in a “tabletop exercise” to simulate an asteroid impact scenario. The exercise depicting this fictional event is being led by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), allowing NASA’s PDCO and other U.S. agencies and space science institutions, along with international space agencies and partners, to use the fictitious scenario to investigate how near-Earth object (NEO) observers, space agency officials, emergency managers, decision makers, and citizens might respond and work together to an actual impact prediction and simulate the evolving information that becomes available in the event an asteroid impact threat is discovered.

more here:
[link to www.jpl.nasa.gov (secure)]

You can follow the weeklong event from home here:

[link to cneos.jpl.nasa.gov (secure)]

They've already had 7 of these drills and nothing happened, but somebody is bound to get a DOOM thrill out of it, hehe.

C 8.5 flare.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

2817 again... he's really trying....

SolarDemon movie:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

CME Incoming / Geomagnetic Storm Watch
April 22, 2021 @ 19:15 UTC

The CME observed early Thursday morning following a C3 flare around AR 2816 did produce a relatively faint, but partial halo CME with a possible Earth directed component. The latest CME tracking model shows an impact by late Apr 24 or early Apr 25 (UTC). A moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm watch was officially added for April 25th. Aurora sky watchers from middle to high latitudes should be alert should the plasma cloud sweep past Earth.

https://imgur.com/rPBXsQp

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

Solar Storm Heading Toward Earth - CME Incoming / Geomagnetic Storm WATCH


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

AR2817 has gone over the limb now, but still may produce strong flares. It's been a long time since we've seen more than a dozen C-flares in one day.

SWPC Discussion--

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 2816 (S24W18, Cro/beta) produced multiple
C-class flares, including a C3/1f flare at 22/0435 UTC. This flare was
associated with Type II and Type IV radio sweeps and a partial-halo CME
seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 coronagraph imagery. The CME was modeled and it
was determined to have an Earth-directed component that is likely to
pass Earth on day 3 (25 Apr) of the forecast. No other Earth-directed
CMEs were noted.

There were 2 other spotted regions on the visible disk. Region 2817
(N18W88, Cso/beta) was on the northwest limb, making analysis difficult.
It did, however, manage to produce a C8/sf flare at 22/2011 UTC, in
addition to a few other small C-class flares throughout the day. Region
2818 (S17E39, Hsx/alpha) was stable and really unremarkable.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low, with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-Minor) flares through 24 Apr.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 113 Issued at 0030Z on 23 Apr 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 22 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2816 S24W18 261 0050 Cro 10 06 Beta
2817 N18W88 331 0140 Cso 09 05 Beta
2818 S17E39 204 0050 Hsx 01 01 Alpha

C2.4 from 2818

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

Solar Update
April 23, 2021 @ 15:40 UTC

Solar activity decreased again to very low levels, primarily due to the fact that AR 2817 rotated behind the northwest limb. The region was producing consistent C-Flares before turning out of view. Existing regions 2816 and 2818 are stable. There will remain a chance for an isolated C-Flare around 2816.

A reminder that a watch for Moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm conditions will be in effect beginning late on April 24th and on April 25th. This is due to the anticipated arrival of a CME observed leaving the Sun early Thursday morning (UTC).

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

Kp5

https://imgur.com/ZfQswXa

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]