SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

AR2846 gave us the X1.5 flare on July 3rd. It's also presumed to have been very active on the far side. It looks like a well-aged battle-hardened veteran of sunspots. This region was never a very large AR, but an Xtremely agitated one. He may still have a few salvos left in him with a hint of a Delta region there.

AR2846 (old 2838)-

:AR2846:
:2846_Mag:

AR2838 Back On July 3rd (an X and 3 M-flares)-
:AR2838_HMIIC:

I believe that AR2847 and the Beast beyond the limb are the revenge of Old 2835 & 36. Remember the great big spot and his growing little brother? Actually nothing memorable ever happened. Little 2836 shrank and vanished; and 2835 barely managed a C-flare while transiting the disk.

Well, as it often happens with large spots, it took awhile for the strong magnetic fields to destabilize and erupt in a big way. Old 2835 has been active lately as it nears the east limb and was involved in at least one of the giant CMEs from the far side.



AR2847 may be the reincarnation of Little Brother 2836 (or at least a nephew).

AR2847-

:new_AR:

OLD ARs 2835 & 2836- (back approx. June 29)
:AR2835(36):

Wanted to stop by and just say thank y'all for everything y'all do.. Y'all are some very appreciated and amazing people.. Much love to everyone of y'all!!

Wanted to stop by and just say thank y'all for everything y'all do.. Y'all are some very appreciated and amazing people.. Much love to everyone of y'all!!

SIDEWAYS SOLAR FLARE: A filament of magnetism near sunspot AR2846 erupted yesterday, sparking a B-class solar flare and hurling a cloud of plasma into space. Normally, the location of the blast site would rule out an impact on Earth. However, the explosion's debris squirted out sideways. NOAA analysts are evaluating the possibility of a glancing blow later this week.

https://imgur.com/J49rJNt

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

Me too! Thanks!


The Oracle's Cookie

Fabulous right!? 24-7 Solar news. Karma reminder lol

You see this, O's Cookie? Sideways Solar Flare!? My phone changed it to "glare' lolol.

"Normally, the location of the blast site would rule out an impact on Earth. However, the explosion's debris squirted out sideways".


Oof! Jinx factor engaged. Lol

C1.2 earlier [link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

And a C flare currently in progress

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

ETA: Peaked at C1.3

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

Last Edited by Simple27 on 07/21/2021 06:05 PM

A managerie of sunspots but few strong flares. AR 2845 rose from the dead (NOAA assigned it an area of "0000" 24 hrs ago!) and produced a C1 flare.

C-flare from 2845:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

AR2845-

:AR2845:
:2845_HMIBC:

Whoops, I almost forgot to mention .....

I notice on the 2845 magnetogram that a small yellow dot lies inside of the major blue region. I've never seen this before. Is this real or an artifact or glitch in the HMI software? Opposing polarities in close proximity should lead to major flares.

WHAT IS THIS?

:2845_HMIBC:

From your friendly goobermint experts-

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2021 Jul 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low due to a pair of C1 flares. Six sunspot groups
were present on the visible disk. The most notable were Regions 2842
(N25W66, Dsi/beta-gamma), 2845 (S15W61, Dso/beta), and 2847 (S28E61,
Cro/beta). Region 2842 underwent decay, while it maintained a slight
mixed magnetic polarity configuration and produced a B9 flare at 21/1348
UTC. Region 2845 underwent additional growth and produced a C1 flare at
21/2005 UTC. Region 2847 underwent decay and produced a B5 flare at
21/1100 UTC. New NOAA/SWPC Region 2849 (S18E75, Axx/alpha) was assigned
this period. The new region was too foreshortened to conduct a thorough
analysis. However, magnetograms suggest there may be more to this region
yet to rotate into view and the C1 flare at 21/1604 UTC appeared to be
from what may remain of this region just beyond the SE limb.

The CME associated with the DSF on 20 Jul was analyzed further and
modeled. Initial results suggest a possible glancing blow later on 23
Jul.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with isolated C-class flares likely
on 22-23

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 203 Issued at 0030Z on 22 Jul 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 21 Jul
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2842 N25W66 200 0080 Dsi 08 07 Beta-Gamma
2845 S15W61 195 0060 Dso 04 04 Beta
2846 N25E49 085 0090 Cso 10 07 Beta
2847 S28E61 073 0020 Cro 10 03 Beta
2848 N20E16 118 0010 Bxo 03 04 Beta
2849 S18E75 058 0000 Axx 00 01 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z Jul
Nmbr Location Lo
2844 S43W04 137
II. Regions Due to Return 22 Jul to 24 Jul
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

****Did they forget about 2840?

AR2842 is saving his outbursts for the far side I guess. This magnetic structure seems ready-made for persistent flaring. The sun is confounding that it seems any forecast is a fool's errand......

So we wait and WE WATCH (and hopefully learn something along the way).

AR2842 Magnetogram-

:2842_HMIBC:

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Thanks for that image, Simple27!

Although when you first look at it...it doesn't
appear to "that big"...but you have to realize
the tiny measurements on the sun in these images
are way far away and 1/4 inch could be thousands
of miles.

Just thought I would mention this...

By the way, is anyone else really "concerned" about
a big earth-directed blast this coming week/weekend
given those active sunspots that popped off the
massive CMEs are the "bad boys" coming in?

Interesting questions here if we should lose the grid
with a big flare:
Thread: Grid Down Scenario: How Do We Communicate With Loved Ones and Receive Info?

It is actually possible in our life times. Agree?


The Oracle's Cookie

Last Edited by The Oracle's Cookie on 07/22/2021 12:10 AM

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: A filament of magnetism near sunspot AR2846 erupted on July 20th, sparking a B-class solar flare and hurling a cloud of plasma into space. Normally, the location of the blast site would rule out an impact on Earth. However, the explosion's debris squirted out sideways. New modeling by NOAA suggests that the edge of the cloud will strike Earth's magnetic field on July 23rd or 24th, sparking G1-class geomagnetic storms.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

Cookie, I definitely agree that it's possible in our lifetime!

https://imgur.com/0KFRQ8W

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

MAJOR nod backatcha!




O's Cookie

Although you wouldn't know from the flare list, today's NOAA Sunspot Number of 86 is the highest yet of Cycle 25. It just beats the Nov. 30th, 2020 count of 84.

the RED line on top graph at link:

[link to www.solen.info]

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 07/22/2021 10:42 PM

Our big bad monsters of the dark side hiding under the bed beyond the east limb are nothing more than decrepit, shrinking little dots on the sun. Old AR2840 is our last hope that a far side warrior will make a triumphant return. But don't count on it.

AR2849 seems to have blown itself to bits in the last 2 far side CMEs. Same goes for 2846. Ironically, AR2840 could become AR2850.... we'll know in a few short hours.

Recent Far-Side CME-

:7/15 Halo CME:

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 07/22/2021 11:53 PM

CHANCE OF MINOR STORMS TODAY: Later today, a CME might sideswipe Earth's magnetic field. NOAA forecasters say the glancing blow could spark minor G1-class geomagnetic storms. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras mixed with bright moonlight on July 23-24.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

C4.3

https://imgur.com/81j6f1W

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Last Edited by Simple27 on 07/23/2021 08:52 PM

https://imgur.com/NUo5Qvr

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

LDE (Long Duration Event) plus an additional C1.5

https://imgur.com/0mznzkm

LONG DURATION SOLAR FLARE: Today began with an explosion on the sun. Minutes after UT midnight, sunspot AR2849 erupted, producing a long-duration C4-class flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the ultraviolet flash:

https://imgur.com/18ZL5Td

An hour-long pulse of X-rays and ultraviolet radiation ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, disrupting the usual propagation of radio waves over the Pacific Ocean. Mariners, aviators, and ham radio operators may have noticed sudden drops in signal strength at frequencies below 20 MHz:

https://imgur.com/ZOslXxz

The explosion also hurled a CME into space. The cloud does not appear to be heading for Earth.

https://imgur.com/a55uzk7

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

Perosnaly, i dont understand why Ben qwould say that the Juily 15 CME would have destoryed the grid. It was not Carrigton strenght.

He made his whole doom video sound like it was a sure thing. No one can predict the kill shot.

Ben doesn't know the SCORE CME typification system.
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
The July 15 one was a O type.