SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Thank you Simple27!! I'll get rid of the first smilie
and just use the 2nd one when I need to post this.

GOOD EYES!


The Oracle's Cookie

CLOSE ENCOUNTER WITH A CME: A CME may have passed close to our planet on Sept. 27th. Ripples in the solar wind suggest either a weak collision or, more likely, a near miss. NOAA forecasters still believe that G2-class storms are possible on Sept. 28th when a solar wind stream following the CME might deliver a more effective blow.

https://imgur.com/1WLk7ro

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

CME Observed
September 28, 2021 @ 09:45 UTC

A minor eruption around AR 2871 hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space early this morning (Sept 28) and possibly towards our planet. Earth facing coronagraph imagery is not yet up to date, however the STEREO Ahead spacecraft captures the plasma cloud below. More updates later today.

https://imgur.com/Dmkq5p2

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

UPDATE: Earth facing coronagraph imagery is now available and shows a partial halo CME which appears to have somewhat of an Earth directed component. A passage past our planet is now predicted for late on September 30th and into October 1st (UTC). Aurora sky watchers should be alert within the next 72 hours.

https://imgur.com/qBRKt42

https://imgur.com/RukUTKy

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

sun seems to be slightly less than volatile right now...
Thats when the big one sling protons...
JMHO...

I just counted 4 new spotted regions in the north, but 3 were just tiny dots so far. NOAA has numbered 2880 in the far NE. Also, we may have a new region coming over in the SE today.....

STEREO A image:
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 272 Issued at 0030Z on 29 Sep 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 28 Sep
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2871 S28W53 354 0030 Hrx 02 01 Alpha
2877 S18W27 329 0030 Cro 04 10 Beta
2880 N30E54 246 0010 Cro 04 05 Beta
2881 N16W20 321 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha

Latest HMI Intensitygram:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

Magnetogram:
[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2021 Sep 29 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.

Region 2871 (S28W53, Hrx/alpha) continued to slowly decay while
producing a C1.6/SF flare at 28/0634 UTC. A partial, asymmetric halo CME
was associated with this flare. This CME was modeled with a speed of 811
km/s and is expected to arrive late on 30 Sep/early on 01 Oct.

There were three other spotted regions on the disk. Region 2877 (S18W27,
Cro/beta) showed modest growth but still lacked mature penumbra on any
of its spots. Region 2880 (N30E54, Cro/beta) also grew but was inactive.
Region 2881 (N16W20, Axx/alpha) was newly numbered. The group consists
of one, unipolar sunspot that has been inactive.

No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed, although the CME from 27 Sep
is expected to have less of an Earth-directed component after further
analysis. It will likely merge with the faster-moving CME from today
before arriving at Earth and will be observed as one transient at L1.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for
C-class flares 29 Sep - 01 Oct.

Oh, I almost forgot to mention what a horrible SWPC prediction of a G2 storm was for yesterday. A total FAIL! Better luck next time, guys.

Even with the equinox enhancement we didn't even muster a Kp=4.

A complete embarassment and a true show of their dartboard prediction skills.

I predict the next geomagnetic storm will come as a total surprise to SWPC, LOL.

A C1.4 flare from our new friend AR2880.

GONG pic (from Gulag Australia):

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

SolarDemon movie:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are likely on Oct. 1st when a CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The incoming CME was hurled in our direction by a C1.6-class solar flare from decaying sunspot AR2871 on Sept. 28th. There is a chance that the CME will sweep up another, less massive CME en route to Earth. The combined impact could boost storm levels to category G2.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

https://imgur.com/nsvXgnn

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

C2.8

https://imgur.com/XiqLgIc

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Last Edited by Simple27 on 09/29/2021 06:11 PM

Quickly followed by a C1.4

https://imgur.com/jVS5qci

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Possible M-flares are in the forecast again.....

TWO Beta-Gamma regions teamed up for 5 C-flares today. The largest was the C2.8 from AR2877.

GONG pic:
[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

SolarDemon movie:
[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 273 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Sep 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Sep
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2871 S28W65 353 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha
2877 S16W40 327 0130 Dai 07 14 Beta-Gamma
2880 N29E43 244 0390 Dkc 09 18 Beta-Gamma
2881 N16W33 321 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha

Region images courtesy of Solar Ham:
[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

SWPC Forecast Discussion--

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.

Region 2877 (S16W40, Dai/beta-gamma) underwent a burst of significant
growth towards the end of the day, developing leading and trailing spots
with maturing penumbra. This region produced a C1 flare at 29/1421 UTC
and a few other low level flares late in the period. This region
produced the largest flare of the period, a C2.8 at 29/2156 UTC.

Region 2880 (N29E43, Dkc/beta-gamma) rapidly grew from a simple spot
group consisting of just a few immature spots to having several large
spots with mature penumbra. This region produced a C1.3 flare at 29/0218
UTC.

Two other smaller, unipolar groups were on the disk. They were Region
2871 (S28W65, Axx/alpha) and Region 2881 (N16W33, Axx/alpha). They were
both stable and inactive.

The partial, asymmetric halo CME observed on 28 Sep is expected to
arrive late on 30 Sep/early on 01 Oct.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
C-flares are likely for the next three days (30 Sep - 02 Oct) given the
rapid growth of Regions 2877 and 2881. There is a chance for M-flares
and R1-R2 radio blackouts all three days as well.

EARTH CAN MAKE ITS OWN AURORAS: No solar storms? No problem. Earth has learned to make its own auroras. New results from NASA's THEMIS-ARTEMIS spacecraft show that a type of Northern Lights called "diffuse auroras" comes from our own planet--no solar storms required.

Diffuse auroras look a bit like pea soup. They spread across the sky in a dim green haze, sometimes rippling as if stirred by a spoon. They're not as flamboyant as auroras caused by solar storms. Nevertheless, they are important because they represent a whopping 75% of the energy input into Earth's upper atmosphere at night. Researchers have been struggling to understand them for decades.

https://imgur.com/99Nxu82

"We believe we have found the source of these auroras," says UCLA space physicist Xu Zhang, lead author of two papers reporting the results in the Journal of Geophysical Research and Physics of Plasmas.

It is Earth itself. Earth performs the trick using electron beams. High above our planet's poles, beams of negatively-charged particles shoot upward into space, accelerated by electric fields in Earth's magnetosphere. Sounding rockets and satellites discovered the beams decades ago. It turns out, they can power the diffuse auroras.

The video, below, shows how it works. The beams travel in great arcs through the space near Earth. As they go, they excite ripples in the magnetosphere called Electron Cyclotron Harmonic (ECH) waves. Turn up the volume and listen to the waves recorded by THEMIS-ARTEMIS:


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

ECH waves, in turn, knock other electrons out of their orbits, forcing them to fall back down onto the atmosphere. This rain of secondary electrons powers the diffuse auroras.

"This is exciting," says UCLA professor Vassilis Angelopoulos, a co-author of the papers and lead of the THEMIS-ARTEMIS mission. "We have found a totally new way that particle energy can be transferred from Earth's own atmosphere out to the magnetosphere and back again, creating a giant feedback loop in space."

According to Angelopoulos, Earth's polar electron beams sometimes weaken but they never completely go away, not even during periods of low solar activity. This means Earth can make auroras without solar storms.

The sun is currently experiencing periods of quiet as young Solar Cycle 25 sputters to life. Pea soup, anyone?

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

Any chance to get an UPDATE on the predicted CME hitting
Earth today?

Several people were wondering on the LaPalma Volcano thread
if it was supposed to hit us around 2:00 P.M. EST or was
it 10:00 PM EST...or what?

I can usually tell when there is an up-tick just by the
way my headaches feel! lol! Got a pretty wild one right now!

Please let us know if you can.


The Oracle's Cookie

My posts are being blocked for no reason.

Very disconcerting.

Don't let the flatlining x-ray flux get you down, Suntards.....it may be a good thing.

Imagine a solar flare 20x bigger than the Carrington Event of 1859!! It may have happened multiple times in Earth's history.

I came across this excellent article by Christopher Crockett....(less<50%). Please read the entire article to understand the full implications of 'Super-flares'.....

"In a matter of seconds, Proxima Centauri, the nearest star to our Sun, got thousands of times brighter than usual — up to 14,000 times brighter in the ultraviolet range of the spectrum. The radiation burst was strong enough to split any water molecules that might exist on the temperate, Earth-sized planet orbiting that star; repeated blasts of that magnitude might have stripped the planet of any atmosphere.

It would be bad news if the Earth’s sun ever got so angry.[/b" (snip)

Forgotten flares

Trees have long memories. Each year of growth chronicles tidbits about environmental conditions at the time in concentric annual rings. From those rings researchers can reconstruct scenes from Earth’s past.

Some cedar trees in Japan recall a tsunami of atomic particles hurled from the Sun around the year 775. Those trees recorded a significant uptick in carbon-14, a radioactive variant of carbon that trees absorb from the atmosphere. Carbon-14 emerges from run-ins between atmospheric nitrogen and cosmic rays — high-speed particles from space that pummel our planet daily. Some solar flares shower Earth with an excess of cosmic rays, which ramps up production of carbon-14. The change in carbon-14 levels recorded in 775 was about 20 times larger than the normal ebb and flow from the Sun, researchers reported in 2012.

“The clear suggestion there was that super events could happen, because this was a factor of 10 — if it was a solar flare — a factor of 10 or 20 or more greater than the Carrington Event,” Hudson says.] (snip....)

FULL HIGHLY RECOMMENDED ARTICLE Here:

[link to astronomy.com (secure)]

Very weak impact at 18:00z...proton density peaked at 42 and the SW picked up in velocity, but the Bz has hovered near ZERO....neutral polarity.

I honestly didn't expect much from a C1 flare.

DSCVR Real Time Solar Winds:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 09/30/2021 11:35 PM

SCHRODINGER'S CME HIT EARTH (NO, IT DIDN'T): Did a CME hit Earth's magnetic field today? An examination of solar wind data reveals evidence for both possibilities: Yes and no. There is no sharp discontinuity in solar wind speed typical of CME strikes. But, yes, there are enhanced magnetic fields like those often found in the wake of CMEs. Whatever happened, it successfully disturbed Earth's magnetic field just enough for some Arctic auroras on Sept. 30th/Oct. 1st.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

Geomagnetic Update
October 1, 2021 @ 11:30 UTC

The geomagnetic field reached disturbed (Kp4) levels on a few occasions during the past 15 hours, likely due to a coronal mass ejection (CME) passing just by our planet. The solar wind speed increased from near 450 km/s to around 550 km/s and included a few brief periods of southward Bz. The increased speed looked more like the onset of a coronal hole stream, rather than an interplanetary shock passage. Unfortunately the prospects for a prolonged period of geomagnetic storming are waning , however brief geomagnetic enhancements will remain possible during the next 24 hours while the SW stream continues to be elevated.

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

https://imgur.com/BN42VUX

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

The Oracle's Cookie

LDE

C1.6

https://imgur.com/cogx0sk

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE: Solar Cycle 25 continues to overperform. Sunspot counts for Sept. 2021 were the highest in more than 5 years. And, for the 11th month in a row, the sunspot number has significantly exceeded the official forecast.

https://imgur.com/qiHcDVa

The plot above shows sunspot counts vs. time. The red curve traces the forecast issued by the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel in 2019. It calls for a relatively weak solar cycle peaking in July 2025.

The sun has a mind of its own, though. Higher-than-expected sunspot counts suggest a stronger cycle, with a peak occurring in late 2024 instead of mid-2025. This is good news for aurora watchers, but maybe not so good for the Internet.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

Sun has been very quiet lately. Not causing any earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes nor pole shifts today.

AR2877 did give us 2 C1 flares as it went over the west limb. AR2880 has been silent so far.

However, a big alpha spot has come over the NE limb.

latest HMI Intensitygram:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

Let's hope next week is more active.