SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

(Again!)


The Oracle's Cookie

Look at that last one I just now posted

What the heck is that from? The little C 2.3?

Last Edited by Isis One on 05/11/2022 12:45 AM

I don't even know. Maybe Hugh will have some insight.

The timing is a little off for it to have been this, but check this out.

Farsided Activity
May 11, 2022 @ 10:00 UTC

Farsided activity looks to be quite active with a nice coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in coronagraph imagery today. The source of this event may have been old active regions 2993/2994, now about 3 days away from turning back into view on the east limb.

UPDATE: It should be noted that another possible region in the southern hemisphere also appears to be active and is a few days away from the east limb as well.

https://imgur.com/Y0PYLOK

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

c'mohn soluh thardz...git uh hit t'day! neked cappy. uh.

M1.6 flare

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

https://twitter.com/_/status/1524431921006137347

M1.1 and rising

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Peaked at M2.6

https://twitter.com/_/status/1524464500455444489

West Limb Eruption
May 11, 2022 @ 19:15 UTC

An eruption behind the west limb in the vicinity of AR 3004 was just observed. This event peaked at M2.6, however was likely larger due to the fact the sunspot region is no longer in direct view. A nice coronal mass ejection (CME) is almost certain, however it will be directed away from our planet. Other than a minor (R1) level radio blackout, no major effects are expected at this time. Image below by SDO/AIA.

https://imgur.com/SCLBVW5

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

SolarDemon movie of M2.6 beyond the SW limb. Watch near the beginning a filament or something flies off of the sun very far north of the flare. Wild.--

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Small rise in GOES Proton Flux (click on 6-hour view):

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

The Oracle's Cookie

proton spikes

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

SEEDS movie of giant CME from M2.6 flare:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

:M2.6-CME:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1137
Issue Time: 2022 May 11 1939 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2022 May 11 1824 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1258 km/s

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 573
Issue Time: 2022 May 11 1857 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2022 May 11 1824 UTC

CME GLANCING BLOW POSSIBLE ON MAY 13th: Friday the 13th could be a lucky day for auroraphiles. A CME launched by yesterday's cluster of southern explosions on the sun might graze Earth's magnetic field on May 13th. This is a low confidence forecast. If/when the CME arrives, its glancing blow could spark minor geomagnetic storms and auroras at high latitudes.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

Very active and interesting day today! Here's my off-the-cuff analysis....

AR3007 is now taking center stage in the Earth strike zone. 007 is Beta-Gamma-Delta as well. This is the 3rd consecutive BGD sunspot to face Earth.!

AR3006 has simplified magnetically since the X1.5 yesterday and former BGD 3004 sounded off beyond the limb with an M2.6 and CME.

In the wake of that M2 event a major C-flare was recorded from beyond the NE limb.

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

Also, 3007 produced an eruptive C4 flare.
[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

Two small Beta regions are emerging in the north maybe paving the way for the return of 2993/94 (which seems to be still active judging by the farside CMEs). Another AR may be lurking near the SE limb, too.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 132 Issued at 0030Z on 12 May 2022
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 11 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 11/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
3006 S31W20 235 0130 Eao 14 19 Beta
3007 S24E32 184 0300 Ehc 15 20 Beta-Gamma-Delta
3008 N16E34 182 0010 Bxo 03 02 Beta
3009 N14W21 237 0010 Bxo 03 03 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 11/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 12 May to 14 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
2993 N20 125
2994 N15 123
2995 N15 097

AR3007- BGD (Delta means having umbra of opposite polarities within the same penumbra)

:AR3007:
:3007_mag:

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 05/12/2022 12:01 AM

C8.4 flare

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

C8.47 from AR'007....(Sunspot with a license to kill?)--

GONG photo shows a horned evil-grinning smiley face (?!):

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

Maybe I just need more sleep, lol, ZZzzzzzzzzzzz

CACTus CME Detections shows 5 Type II Halo CMEs since 1400z 5/10/2022--
(click the Blue #'s for pics & details):

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Class M right now (Solar Ham)

M1.3

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Our old friends (2993/94) returning very soon in the NE....still looking large.

STEREO EUV image at the time of the M1.3 flare:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

SD movie of occulted M1.3 flare:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Power outage last night.....so here's a delayed update.

AR3010 has come over in the SE and is near the equator. Other new spots are emerging as well.......

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 133 Issued at 0030Z on 13 May 2022
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 12 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 12/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
3006 S31W33 235 0140 Eao 14 20 Beta
3007 S24E18 184 0350 Ekc 15 30 Beta-Gamma-Delta
3008 N16E20 182 0030 Cao 04 05 Beta
3009 N14W35 237 0030 Cao 04 06 Beta
3010 S13E71 131 0030 Hsx 02 01 Alpha

AR3007 is losing its Delta configuration, however it's now Earth-facing.

:ar3007_HMIIC:
:3007_HMIBC:

New AR3010-

:AR3010:
:3010_mag:

THE FIRST SUNQUAKE OF SOLAR CYCLE 25: Twenty-six years ago, researchers discovered seismic activity on the sun. A team led by Dr. Alexander Kosovichev, then at Stanford University, found circular waves rippling from the core of some solar flares, like this:

https://imgur.com/8bQQOHr

They named the tremors "sunquakes"--much like earthquakes except incredibly more powerful. A typical sunquake contains 40,000 times the energy released in the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906. These solar seismic waves appear to be compression waves like the "P" waves generated by an earthquake. They travel through the sun's interior and probably recombine on the opposite side of the sun to create a faint duplicate of the original ripple pattern.
Kosovichev and colleagues have since observed hundreds of sunquakes. Not all flares produce them, which is a mystery. Moreover, the ripples behave strangely. A typical wave starts off at an initial speed of ~20,000 mph, then accelerates to a maximum of 250,000 mph before disappearing. No one knows exactly why.

"We have just detected the first sunquake of Solar Cycle 25," announces Kosovichev, who is now a professor at the New Jersey Institute of Technology (NJIT). "It rippled away from the X1.5-class solar flare of May 10, 2022." The movie below, centered on the blast site, shows concentric rings emerging from the turbulent surface of the sun:

https://imgur.com/BHHjBZR

When Kosovichev discovered sunquakes in 1996, he stretched the images fourfold to highlight the ripples for press releases. This week's sunquake he has left in its raw form--not quite as easy to see, but just as impressive for a different reason. "I wanted people to appreciate how the ripples are nearly overwhelmed by turbulence," he explains. "This is why it took us so long to discover them."

Solar Cycle 25 is intensifying rapidly and many more sunquakes are in the offing. The mysterious ripples could teach researchers a great deal about the magnetic underpinnings of sunspots and how they produce the strongest flares. "We are ready to learn," says Kosovichev. Let the tremors begin.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY: One of the many CMEs that appeared set to miss Earth this week might hit after all. NOAA analysts say that a glancing blow is possible today, potentially turning Friday the 13th into a lucky day for high-latitude aurora watchers. Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible if the CME grazes Earth's magnetic field.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]