SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

we're not doin' any stock mah-ket prediction chartz 'ere..!UH.

Great catch.

C6.4

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

AR3089 has produced dozens of low-level C-flares over the past 48 hrs. The largest being C6.4 which may be ejecting a CME at this time.

SolarDemon quicklook movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

C8.2 from AR3089.

Quicklook movie of C8 flare:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Hiya, Simple, hope all is well with you this day.

Hi my friend!

All is good here. Hope you're having a nice weekend. :)

https://imgur.com/s7UiVcu

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

Nice G2 Storm still in progress....

Planetary K-index (Potsdam):

[link to isdc.gfz-potsdam.de (secure)]

GOES Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

SWPC Kp Index:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2022 Sep 04 1715 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

SWPC Alerts & Warnings:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Aurora Forecast-No. Hemisphere:

[link to services.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

I'm half-expecting AR3089 to produce an X-flare just as it's going over the limb.

Here's a snapshot of the C8.2 courtesy of SDO-

:C8.2flare:

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2022 Sep 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 3089 (S23W74, Ekc/Beta-Gamma-Delta)
produced numerous C-class flares the largest of which was a C8.2 at
04/1638 UTC, which was also the largest of the period. Region 3092
(S10E27, Cso/beta) was responsible for a pair of late C-class flares.
Region 3093 (S27E16, Cro/beta) was responsible for a C3.9 flare at
04/0735 UTC and Region 3094s (N21E53, Cao/beta) largest event was a
C2.2 flare at 04/0717.

A surge-like event was observed in GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery beginning
near 04/0609 UTC. This event was associated with the aforementioned C3.9
flare from Region 3093. A subsequent faint CME was observed by LASCO C2
coronagraph imagery just after 04/0900 UTC emerging from the SE limb.
Analysis and modeling is currently underway to determine any
Earth-directed component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-flares and a
slight chance for X-flares over 05 Sep. Solar activity is expected to
decrease to a chance for low levels on 06-07 Sep following the exit of
Region 3089.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 248 Issued at 0030Z on 05 Sep 2022
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 04 Sep
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 04/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
3089 S23W74 195 0520 Ekc 11 13 Beta-Gamma-Delta
3092 S10E27 094 0090 Cso 03 03 Beta
3093 S27E16 105 0030 Cro 03 03 Beta
3094 N21E53 068 0100 Cao 02 03 Beta

AR3089... last good look.-
:AR3089_last:
:3089_delta:

Those sunspots always get exciting as they're leaving

C5.0 from AR3092 in the SE. AR3092 appears to have an embedded sigmoid filament. To the south is a gigantic filament, too.

GONG H-alpha pic:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

That's a good one to embed!

https://imgur.com/1vPdUn3

Quicklook movie of C5 from 3092:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Today's geomagnetic storm reached -70 Dst rating. My rule of thumb is >100 Dst ia a notable storm and >150 is a severe storm. I've no idea what the record is.

Dst plot:

[link to wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp (secure)]

Is there a way to tell if the storm had a positive or negative charge?

Isn’t all plasma a positive charge?

Looked it up. Protons AND electrons get ejected in the plasma. The electron flux was above the alert threshold during the storm. So I’ll call it a negatively charged storm. It felt good.

Last Edited by Isis One on 09/05/2022 01:55 AM

Hey Isis One!

I'm thinking that it COULD BE a "good thing and feel good"
as long as you have POSITIVE charged blood type. O + is
the dominant blood type in the U.S.A.

But for us "negatives"...you remember that LIKE CHARGES
REPELL, right? The physical impact for folks with NEGATIVE
BLOOD TYPES (in my case A-)...It doesn't feel so good.
Was up most of the night with my "peculiar geo-storm sickies!"

This is only by my own experience, but I'm thinking it
is probably on-target. Here is the GEO-STORM health chart:



Hang in there all you NEGATIVES...should be over soon!


The Oracle's Cookie

Solar winds as explained by the Electric Sun Theory (Donald Scott)-



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Any updates on the m flare yet? Looks like it may be a chained event to a large flare on the farside.

Keep us posted :)


September 6, 2022 @ 19:15
UTCGood afternoon. The enhanced solar wind stream continues to stir up geomagnetic activity with minor (G1) storm conditions observed on Monday. Visible aurora will remain likely at higher latitudes during the next 24 hours.

Big sunspot region 3089 is now turning behind the west limb and will soon be out of direct Earth view. The active region did produce a low level M-Flare (M1.0) at 18:05 UTC (Sept 5).

A major space weather event took place earlier today off the farside of the Sun. A large, full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) is becoming visible in the latest coronagraph imagery courtesy of both LASCO and STEREO Ahead. Although it is not possible to say exactly what the source of the eruption was, perhaps it was related to our old friend AR 3088. We will begin to see this region reappear next week.

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]