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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
Helios Maximus

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10/05/2022 09:10 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
No cannibal CME impact and no X-flares or even M-flares... NOAA's prognosticators are just blowing smoke up yer arse. When the 'real deal' is happening they just dismiss it or ignore it altogether.

AR3112 (old 3098 from the last rotation) is getting old and frail. The region is decaying yet it still has a mixed polarity in it's intermediate spots. It may still possible produce a large flare or 2 before he retires.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 279 Issued at 0030Z on 06 Oct 2022
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 05 Oct
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 05/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
3110 N21W93 163 0060 Cso 03 02 Beta
3111 N28W33 104 0060 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
3112 N22E21 050 0750 Fkc 25 55 Beta-Gamma-Delta
3113 N16W80 152 0090 Cso 06 03 Beta
3115 S18W24 096 0180 Dao 08 08 Beta
3116 N29E28 044 0060 Dai 09 09 Beta
3117 S12W10 080 0010 Bxo 02 03 Beta

AR3112 (it's so elongated I had to crop out the quiet lead spot)-

:AR3112_decaying:

Still has a Delta configuration-
:3112_still mixed:
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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10/05/2022 09:14 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
NO FEAR- NOAA scientists are on the case.....

# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity returned to low levels as only C-class flares and
enhancements were observed. Region 3110 (N21W93, Cso/beta) rotated to
the limb and was too foreshortened for an accurate analysis, but the
lack of activity suggested the region weakened. Region 3112 (N22E21,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to be the most impressive group of spots
present on the visible disk. The region underwent minor changes and only
produced C-class and optical subflares. The region is rather lengthy in
heliographic extent (25 deg) and now that it has become less
foreshortened, magnetic maps hint the spots could possibly be comprised
of three separate, but close proximity regions.
This implies less
intra-magnetic connectivity and could be a reason why this spot complex
has been less active than would be normally expected. However, more
observational data will be necessary before any region separation is
considered further.


Region 3116 (N29E28, Dai/beta) grew in spots and coverage, but was
absent of notable activity. The remaining numbered regions underwent
little or minor change. Late in the period, a small area of potential
spot development (approximately N09E77) was the source of C2.7 flare.
However, we need to ensure this potential region does not decay over the
next several hours before considering for region assignment. No new,
potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.



.Forecast...
Solar activity remains likely to be moderate, with a decreasing
likelihood of M-class (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) flares and a decreasing
chance of X-class (R3-Strong) flares on 06 Oct as Region 3110 rotates
beyond the limb and Region 3112 remains less active than anticipated.
Low levels of solar activity, with a chance of M-class flares and a
slight chance of X-class events are expected 07-08 Oct due mainly to the
flare potential of Region 3112.

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 10/05/2022 09:17 PM
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
The Oracle's Cookie

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10/06/2022 05:06 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
No cannibal CME impact and no X-flares or even M-flares... NOAA's prognosticators are just blowing smoke up yer arse. When the 'real deal' is happening they just dismiss it or ignore it altogether.

AR3112 (old 3098 from the last rotation) is getting old and frail. The region is decaying yet it still has a mixed polarity in it's intermediate spots. It may still possible produce a large flare or 2 before he retires.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 279 Issued at 0030Z on 06 Oct 2022
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 05 Oct
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 05/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
3110 N21W93 163 0060 Cso 03 02 Beta
3111 N28W33 104 0060 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
3112 N22E21 050 0750 Fkc 25 55 Beta-Gamma-Delta
3113 N16W80 152 0090 Cso 06 03 Beta
3115 S18W24 096 0180 Dao 08 08 Beta
3116 N29E28 044 0060 Dai 09 09 Beta
3117 S12W10 080 0010 Bxo 02 03 Beta

AR3112 (it's so elongated I had to crop out the quiet lead spot)-

:AR3112_decaying:

Still has a Delta configuration-
:3112_still mixed:
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


I am so glad you expressed your frustration with the
info coming to the public, Helios. I watched the solar
movie (at solarham tracker) today and noticed multiple
times FRAMES WERE REMOVED when the sun was doing "something"
and they decided we didn't get to see.

I don't understand that kind of censorship when our
taxes are paying their salaries. I want to see the whole
movie UN-REDACTED so I can make my own accessment.

Take a look at it...the movie's all chopped into little
pieces...but you can tell some big things were going on
as they were too stupid to take ALL THE frames out when
they cut it:
[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

Oh well...

cheers
The Oracle's Cookie
WhiteAngel
also known at WA

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10/06/2022 05:10 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
BGD and they aren't giving good info! Shame shame, this could pop of good X-flare. Solarham showing a 25% change of an X.
Isaiah 5:20 KJV
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
Digital mix guy

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10/06/2022 09:37 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
WHEN WILL THE NEXT CME ARRIVE? A magnetic filament in the sun's southrn hemisphere erupted on Oct. 4th, hurling part of itself into space. The emerging CME will pass mostly to the south of our planet, but a fraction could graze Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for minor geomagnetic storms and auroras on that date. Aurora alerts: SMS Text
Have no fear, Spock is here!!! LLAP
Digital mix guy

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10/06/2022 09:38 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 1235 UT Oct06
24-hr: C2 2119 UT Oct05
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1250 UT



Daily Sun: 06 Oct 22
Expand: labels | no labels


Sunspot AR3112 has a delta-class magnetic field that poses a threat for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

[link to spaceweather.com (secure)]
Have no fear, Spock is here!!! LLAP
Digital mix guy

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10/06/2022 09:39 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Major Flare Potential
October 3, 2022 @ 22:10 UTC


AR 3110 and 3112 are currently trading low level M-Flares. Both regions appear poised to produce something much stronger. AR 3112 in particular should be monitored closely as the active cluster of sunspots continue to rotate into a better Earth facing position. Any eruption around this region could potentially be directed towards Earth in the days ahead.


[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]
 Quoting: Simple27


if it is Earth-facing, then an X-flare is highly unlikely, isn't it?

Last Edited by Digital mix guy Spock on 10/06/2022 09:39 AM
Have no fear, Spock is here!!! LLAP
Anonymous Coward
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10/06/2022 10:18 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
wHAT WAS THAT BIG DROP ON GOES X RAY FLUX ?
4 HOURS AGO
mtn_mang

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10/06/2022 10:35 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Earth facing active region and quieter than it's been in weeks. So typical. We gonna need a banana2banana2 soon
The Oracle's Cookie

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10/06/2022 11:14 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
WHEN WILL THE NEXT CME ARRIVE? A magnetic filament in the sun's southrn hemisphere erupted on Oct. 4th, hurling part of itself into space. The emerging CME will pass mostly to the south of our planet, but a fraction could graze Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for minor geomagnetic storms and auroras on that date. Aurora alerts: SMS Text
 Quoting: Digital mix guy


From "Eve" at Skywatchers on "Earthboppin" site 10-06-2022:
[link to earthboppin.net]

If you watch this video closely you will notice the
SOLAR FILAMENT (snake-like ribbon which is curled at one
end at base of the sun in this view) which snapped off.
Earthboppin's post for it reported the energy arriving
around the 8th. It was HUGE and I wish we could have had
the footage of the whole thing as I am sure it was
SPECTACULAR!



[link to youtu.be (secure)]
FairUSE
Solar Filament release video and report

Sometimes they will go back and put in the "cut"
footage...maybe we'll get lucky and be able to
watch it later.

cheers
The Oracle's Cookie
joinca

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10/06/2022 11:20 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
Digital mix guy

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10/06/2022 12:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
if a solar flare is Earth-facing, then it isn't an X-flare. if it is an X-flare, then it ism't Earth facing. Earth-facing solar quiet can be pretty useful.
Have no fear, Spock is here!!! LLAP
Digital mix guy

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10/06/2022 12:07 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
SUNSPOT SUNSET: You know a sunspot is big when you can see it in the sunset. At the end of the day on Oct. 5th, Radu Anghel photographed AR3112 from Bacau, Romania:



"What a wonderful view," says Anghel. "Clouds crossing the solar disk made it look like a big Jupiter with sunspots! :)"

AR3112 is one of the biggest sunspots in years. With more than a dozen dark cores scattered across 300,000 km of solar terrain, it is an easy target for safely-filtered backyard telescopes and cameras. When the sun is dimmed by low clouds and haze, it may even be photographed without a filter.

Be careful, though. Sunlight viewed through unfiltered optics can damage your eyes--even at the end of the day.

[link to spaceweather.com (secure)]
Have no fear, Spock is here!!! LLAP
Digital mix guy

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10/06/2022 12:13 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
ACTIVE REGION: 13112

N22E12
(-185",260") βγδ/βγδ Fkc/Fkc

SIZE:0750/0720!!!

NUMBER OF SUNSPOTS: 55/48!!!!


Yes, that is prety big!!

[link to solarmonitor.org (secure)]

Last Edited by Digital mix guy Spock on 10/06/2022 12:14 PM
Have no fear, Spock is here!!! LLAP
Digital mix guy

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10/06/2022 12:15 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
03 October - 29 October 2022

Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares likely and
a chance for X-class from 03-14 Oct and again from 18-29 Oct due to
current active regions on the visible disk and returning active
regions. Low levels are expected during the interim dates from 15-17
Oct.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]
Have no fear, Spock is here!!! LLAP
Helios Maximus

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10/06/2022 07:34 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
wHAT WAS THAT BIG DROP ON GOES X RAY FLUX ?
4 HOURS AGO
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 84330652


NOAA has to move from GOES 16 sensors to GOES 17 sensors. Sometimes this isn't a smooth hand-off. Also, this is a time year known as 'eclipse season' and we may see a few more data dropouts along the way. NOAA's Satellite Operations Center usually puts out a list of satellite eclipses in advance.

Maybe I can find the link.....

lunareclipse

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 10/06/2022 07:35 PM
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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10/06/2022 07:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
if a solar flare is Earth-facing, then it isn't an X-flare. if it is an X-flare, then it ism't Earth facing. Earth-facing solar quiet can be pretty useful.
 Quoting: Digital mix guy


We already had a 0 degree Earth-facing X-flare.

I think it was nearly 1 year ago.... look it up.

solar-corona

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 10/06/2022 07:42 PM
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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10/06/2022 08:07 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
THIS FORECAST MAY BE COMPLETELY CORRECT-

First AR3112- when it first came over the limb I said it was more than 1 magnetic region. Then I even apologized to SWPC (fool that I am), when I understood their belief that this was simply 3098 returning (which it was). Now they're finally evaluating the evolution into several regions of magnetism... which I saw from the get-go and posted here days ago.

2nd-ly, The scary filament CME- I was the first to post the GONG video of the disappearing filament soon after it happened. I also posted the STEREO Difference movie of the CME the same day. Yes it was a dramatic eruption featuring a double-ribbon Hyder flare (C4), but was clearly directed south of Earth. There's always a 10% chance we'll get a blob of plasma hit the magnetosphere and spark a short minor storm, but I would bet against it in this instance.

The subhumans at NOAA's SWPC may owe me an apology when all is said and done.

3Chimps
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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10/06/2022 08:44 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
DEEP STATE NOAA is once again hiding the public's data. Using my old link for Satellite Operations and their own search tool; I couldn't find any eclipse schedules later than 2018/2019. Are new GOES-R sats immune from eclipses? No, I think we've seen a few of them in the last 3 years....

Anyway, I did find 1 memo relating to eclipses beginning Sept. 30, 2022

[link to www.ospo.noaa.gov (secure)]

I personally don't want to hunt thru the weeds for data when they formerly published a simple chart in the past. A pox upon them heathens!

If you want to dig some more start here:

[link to www.ospo.noaa.gov (secure)]

Please don't share this link w/ Russia. They may hack our weather or disrupt our chemtrail operations.
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Anonymous Coward
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10/06/2022 08:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
C'MON MAHN! SCORE FOR ONCE..UH. SPECIAL PAGE NUMBUH. CAPS. UH.
Helios Maximus

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10/06/2022 08:59 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
DEEP STATE NOAA is once again hiding the public's data. Using my old link for Satellite Operations and their own search tool; I couldn't find any eclipse schedules later than 2018/2019. Are new GOES-R sats immune from eclipses? No, I think we've seen a few of them in the last 3 years....

Anyway, I did find 1 memo relating to eclipses beginning Sept. 30, 2022

[link to www.ospo.noaa.gov (secure)]

I personally don't want to hunt thru the weeds for data when they formerly published a simple chart in the past. A pox upon them heathens!

If you want to dig some more start here:

[link to www.ospo.noaa.gov (secure)]

Please don't share this link w/ Russia. They may hack our weather or disrupt our chemtrail operations.
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


KOZ (Keep Out Zone???)- I finally broke their code!

Here's a list of eclipse times and, yes, there were 3 today for GOES-17.

[link to www.ospo.noaa.gov (secure)]

"KOZ (KEEP OUT ZONE) / ECLIPSE
GOES satellites encounter two periods during the year in which they are in Earth's shadow. Known as the Eclipse (ECL) season, these periods require the spacecraft to be completely dependent upon batteries for a maximum of 72 minutes daily. Eclipses occur approximately from late February to mid-April, and from late August to mid-October."

Navigate to the GOES-16 and other satellites here:

[link to www.ospo.noaa.gov (secure)]

I hope Cosmo appreciates my tenacity to answer his query.

8/2-SDOeclipse
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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10/06/2022 09:09 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
C2.9 from AR3116:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Digital mix guy

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10/06/2022 10:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
if a solar flare is Earth-facing, then it isn't an X-flare. if it is an X-flare, then it ism't Earth facing. Earth-facing solar quiet can be pretty useful.
 Quoting: Digital mix guy


We already had a 0 degree Earth-facing X-flare.

I think it was nearly 1 year ago.... look it up.

solar-corona
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


We did? Ok. Did it damage anything major? Obviously it didn't.
Have no fear, Spock is here!!! LLAP
Digital mix guy

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10/06/2022 10:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Major Flare Potential
October 3, 2022 @ 22:10 UTC


AR 3110 and 3112 are currently trading low level M-Flares. Both regions appear poised to produce something much stronger. AR 3112 in particular should be monitored closely as the active cluster of sunspots continue to rotate into a better Earth facing position. Any eruption around this region could potentially be directed towards Earth in the days ahead.

https://imgur.com/nGwXx2H


[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]
 Quoting: Simple27


I don't think anything major will be Earth-facing.
Have no fear, Spock is here!!! LLAP
Digital mix guy

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10/06/2022 11:21 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Last 24 hours: Sun activity was low in the past day, with only 11 C class flares. The largest was a C2.7 flare – from AR3112 – at the beginning of the period, at 11 UTC October 5, 2022. In fact, AR3112 was the only player of the past day. No new sunspots today, either. And sunspot region AR3110 has moved out of sight, carried westward by the sun’s rotation. The sun now bears six labeled sunspot regions.

[link to earthsky.org (secure)]
Have no fear, Spock is here!!! LLAP
Digital mix guy

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10/07/2022 09:22 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
October 7 sun activity: Will fiery AR3112 split into multiple regions?

Today’s top news: Overall, the sun continues calm and quiet. Sunspot region AR3112 continues as the largest and most complex region. This region has been expanding east-west-wise, with its sunspots spreading out from one another on the sun’s visible surface. Currently, it’s still considered a single sunspot region. But experts are saying it might split into two or three separate regions. The expanding distance between sunspots in the AR3112 region might be why it has produced only C flares in recent days.

Still, there are expectations for this region to produce stronger M – or even X – flares. Meanwhile, on the sun’s southern quadrant, a long filament that has produced flares and CMEs is now moving closer to the sun’s southwest limb (edge). And, at the time of this writing (11 UTC on October 7), a filament has appeared on the sun’s northwest quadrant, between AR3112 and AR3111. There is a blast from this area in progress!

Last 24 hours: Sun activity continues low, producing only six C class flares during the period. The largest was a C2.98 flare by AR3112, blasted out at 23 UTC October 6, 2022. Four flares came from AR3112, one from AR3116 and one from an undetermined yet active region, which could be the filament in progress mentioned above. The sun now bears six labeled sunspot regions. There are two newcomers, AR3117 that emerged east of AR3115 on the southwest quadrant and AR3118 on the east limb (edge).

Next 24 hours: The forecast is for a 95% chance for C flares, 50% chance for M flares and 25% chance for X flares.
Next expected CME: No new Earth-directed CMEs are observed on coronagraph imagery.

Current geomagnetic activity: Quiet at the moment. The magnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. There is a slight chance for a G1 (minor) geomagnetic disturbance today, October 7, which might extend into October 8. It’s caused by mixed effects of high-speed solar wind from a coronal hole and a CME graze. So we have a chance for auroras at high latitudes, such as Alaska.

October 7, 2022,

sun activity shows a filament eruption in progress on the northwest solar quadrant. AIA 304. Image via SDO.
The sun, seen as a yellow sphere with dark spots.
Today’s sun activity with the most active regions labeled (1 UTC on October 7, 2022). Original image, without labels, via NASA SDO. Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams, with labeling by EarthSky. Today’s sun is posted by Armando Caussade. Why are east and west on the sun reversed?

October 6 sun activity: NOAA’s new Aurora Dashboard
This is nice! Beginning in late September 2022, the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has surprised us with a new Aurora Dashboard, albeit in an experimental phase, but still providing useful information on NOAA’s aurora forecast for each day. Feedback is welcome, they said. Congratulations to everybody at SWPC, and thank you for sharing your info! At the time of this writing (11 UTC on October 6), NOAA has issued an aurora alert for the possibility of displays at high northern latitudes (such as Alaska and Anchorage). The threshold for this activity was reached at 08:59 UTC on October 6, 2022. Is it still happening? If you’re at a high latitude, look and see.
Last 24 hours: Sun activity was low in the past day, with only 11 C class flares. The largest was a C2.7 flare – from AR3112 – at the beginning of the period, at 11 UTC October 5, 2022. In fact, AR3112 was the only player of the past day. No new sunspots today, either. And sunspot region AR3110 has moved out of sight, carried westward by the sun’s rotation. The sun now bears six labeled sunspot regions.


October 5 sun activity: M flare and filament eruption
Double sun fun! We saw a beautiful M1.6 flare yesterday (12:20 UTC on October 4, 2022) from sunspot region AR3110. At almost the same time as the M flare, there was a blast from a filament located centrally in the sun’s southern hemisphere at 13:20 UTC on October 4. Yet – overall – after the storm comes a calm.

After the high activity of the past days – with multiple M flares and an X flare on Saturday – sun activity has now returned to moderate levels. AR3110 is now near the western edge of the sun’s visible disk, soon to be carried out of sight by the sun’s rotation. So, AR3112 is now the largest and more magnetically complex region on the solar disk. Despite its impressive size and complexity, it produced only C flares yesterday. And, with AR3110 now moving out of view, today’s flaring forecast is lower than yesterday’s. In the meantime, on Earth, auroras all around!
Last 24 hours: Sun activity is moderate, with one M1.6 flare by AR3110 at 12:20 UTC. AR3110 only produced one C class flare besides its M flare. AR3112 produced other four C flares. No new sunspots today. The sun now bears seven labeled sunspot regions.


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Last Edited by Digital mix guy Spock on 10/07/2022 09:59 AM
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Helios Maximus

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10/07/2022 10:42 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Slow rising x-rays from ar3116.
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Helios Maximus

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10/07/2022 10:47 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
M 1 …ongoing.

5a
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Digital mix guy

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10/07/2022 12:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Have no fear, Spock is here!!! LLAP
Digital mix guy

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10/07/2022 12:06 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
High levels continued with M-class activity from Regions 3110 and
3112, the largest of these was an M8.7/1n from Region 3110.
Associated with this event was a Type IV, a Tenflare (190 sfu) and a
possible Earth-directed CME. Late on 02 Oct, the largest event of
the highlight period was observed from Region 3110, an X1.0 with an
associated Type II (1157 km/s) and 420 sfu Tenflare. Also associated
with this event was a CME that had not been analyzed as of this
writing.

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