SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Screw Bill Gates (& King Charles!) - Follow the Science!

[link to rumble.com (secure)]

I'm looking for the GOES X-RAY FLUX chart for 10 particular dates in 2022. NOAA denies access. All i could find was historical on solar cycles. Thanks. Happy New Year.

Last Edited by Broose on 01/02/2023 09:54 AM

happy new year! same to you!

SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT 7 YEAR HIGH (UPDATED):

December was a busy month on the sun. How busy? Senol Sanli of Bursa, Turkey, answered the question by stacking 26 days of sun photos (Dec. 2nd - 27th) from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

"There were more than 24 sunspot groups, some of them quite large, congested in two bands on opposite sides of the sun's equator," says Sanli.

The congestion of dark cores catapulted the monthly sunspot number to its highest value in 7 years:


This plot from NOAA shows the ascending progression of Solar Cycle 25. It has outperformed the official forecast for 35 months in a row.

If the trend continues, Solar Maximum will either happen sooner or be stronger than originally expected--possibly both. Stay tuned for lots more sunspots.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

from January 2 page:

SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT 7 YEAR HIGH: 2022 ended with the highest monthly sunspot number in 7 years. This plot from NOAA shows the ascending progression of Solar Cycle 25:


For the 35th month in a row, Solar Cycle 25 is outperforming the official forecast. Conclusion: Solar Maximum will either happen sooner or be stronger than expected--possibly both. The next few years should have plenty of sunspots, solar flares, and CMEs. Happy New Year!

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

HIGHLY IMPORTANT!

From December 31 page:

COSMIC RAYS SINK TO A 6-YEAR LOW: Cosmic rays reaching Earth just hit a six-year low. Neutron counters in Oulu, Finland, registered the sudden decrease on Dec. 26th when a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field:

The CME swept aside galactic cosmic rays near our planet, abruptly reducing radiation levels. Researchers call this a "Forbush Decrease," after American physicist Scott Forbush, who studied cosmic rays in the early 20th century.

The Dec. 26th event continues a trend that began in 2020. Since then, cosmic ray fluxes have been fitfully decreasing as one CME after another hit Earth. The reason is Solar Cycle 25, which began around that time and has been gaining strength. The Forbush Decreases are adding up.

Scott Forbush was the first to notice the yin-yang relationship between solar activity and cosmic rays. When one goes up, the other goes down. CMEs play a big role in this relationship. The solar storm clouds contain tangled magnetic fields that do a good job scattering cosmic rays away from our planet.

A recent paper in the Astrophysical Journal looked at the last two solar cycles and compared the daily rate of CMEs to the strength of cosmic rays near Earth. This plot shows the results:



At the peak of Solar Cycle 24, the sun was producing more than 5 CMEs per day. At the same time, galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) dropped more than 60%.

Neutron counts are now at their lowest level since 2016. If current trends continue, cosmic ray levels will plunge even further in the years ahead, perhaps even lower than Solar Cycle 24. This is good news for astronauts and polar air travelers who will benefit from less radiation.

FAQ: Why neutrons? When cosmic rays strike Earth’s atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that rain down on Earth. Among these particles are neutrons, which can make it all the way down to Earth's surface. Researchers at the Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory in Oulu, Finland, have been counting neutrons every day since 1964, providing an unparalleled record of cosmic rays for almost 60 years.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

December 29:

BIG FARSIDE SUNSPOTS:You might suppose that the farside of the sun is hidden from view. However, researchers using a technique called "helioseismology" can make crude maps of the sun's hidden hemisphere. Their latest map reveals multiple farside active regions:



The black blobs are probably sunspot groups--big ones. The first of the three will rotate onto the Earthside of the sun this weekend, followed by the other two next week. This could bring an uptick in geoeffective solar activity. Stay tuned!

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

We'll soon see an active sunspot just beyond the SE limb (and another in the NE).

A major CME was ejected earlier today....

SEEDS Movie (LASCO C2) of big CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Dr. Tony seems convinced that this is the return of AR3163, but I'm not so sure. We had a Beta-Gamma-Delta AR3165 spitting out M-flares in mid-December.


Both sunspots were active and capable of lasting thru the farside transit. Maybe both are coming back soon.

AR3165 (12/15/2022)-
:AR3165_BGD:

AR3163 (12/17/2022)-
:AR3163_big:

C8.5 from directly Earth-facing AR3177.

Looks like a classic textbook example of a 'sigmoid' eruption. Any CME from this event will likely be geoeffective.

GONG pic:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

GOES SUVI images:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Dying Sun last days

There is a good (quick 1/2 minute video) of the amazing
back-side solar eruption on the 3rd (around 4:00 A.M. EST)
from a sunspot the "solar folks" are watching carefully.

You can read the info and see video at this link:
[link to earthboppin.net]

It appears to be a long-duration blast lasting at least
an hour by what I can see in the video. Lots of solar
plasma expelled.

From NemesisMaturity comes this "classy presentation"
of the solar event. Very dramatic footage right there!
He reports "no geomagnetic storm" but seem logical that
we'll see some effects from it.


[link to youtu.be (secure)]

3 Minute duration. NemesisMaturity
published 1-03-2022

I think we can all agree we are VERY glad this puppy
was NOT earth=facing at the time.




The Oracle's Cookie

Solarsoft cutout movie of C8.5 flare from AR3177:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com (secure)]

Although I didn't see any sign of ejections in the flare pics, STEREO seems to show some plasma ejected into the heliosphere around the same time frame.

STEREO images:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

Mostly directed south of Earth's orbit, but the SoHO images have too many gaps.

For the curious-- A look at SIGMOIDS and their relationship to certain CME events found here:

[link to solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

Lurker, first time poster.

You think that the Carrington Event was an ELE?

I looked in empty cities in 1860-80s, mud flood, and orphan trains.

I'll add this UPDATED video of the same solar eruption as
the info in my earlier post...Earthboppin folks got
this covered fairly well. Looks EXTREME to me!

[link to earthboppin.net]


The Oracle's Cookie





Last Edited by The Oracle's Cookie on 01/05/2023 03:20 AM

A couple of things for today!

AND THIS JUST IN FROM NEMESISMATURITY yesterday: HERE COMES A COMET!




[link to youtu.be (secure)]

Great visuals from my favorite "space guy" Ilias in Athens, Greece.
Includes visuals of Comet C/2022 E3 as well as starmaps showing
the comet's path/parahelion and its approaches on past tirps to
see us 50,000 years cycles.


AMAZINGLY "CLASSY" PRESENTATION ON THE IN-BOUND COMET (COMET C/2022 E3)
passing through the inner solar system. It may be visible starting around Feb. 1st in
the NORTHERN HEMISPHERE without the need for binaculars (need dark skies)--last time
this puppy was seen (maybe by some lucky cave-guys) was 50,000 years ago!

Hoping I can see this puppy up here in NW Montana. I'm
marking my CALENDAR for the end of January 2023 to start
looking for reports on it. (BE SURE...there will be at
least ONE thread posted that this thing is going to hit
earth. Anyone ready to watch "DEEP IMPACT" again? They'll
be posting the link. I promise! lol!)


The Oracle's Cookie

Thanks for that info, Digital Mix! Here's acouple more
updates for the thread (1-05-2023)

[link to twitter.com (secure)]
"Comet dives into Solar Corona"

From Earthbopping's EVE:

[link to earthboppin.net]

quote:
Although the sunspot is severely foreshortened and, probably, still partially hidden
behind the edge of the sun, we know a lot about it. The Jan. 3rd blast shows it is
capable of very strong flares (circumstantially X-class) and CMEs. It may even be
an old friend--sunspot AR3163, which produced a fusillade of solar flares
when it crossed the Earthside of the sun in December.

A repeat performance may be in the offing. Stay tuned. [link to spaceweather.com (secure)]


[link to youtu.be (secure)]

BACKSIDE SUNSPOT COMES OVER SUN'S LIMB SOON TO BE
EARTH-FACING...(Estimated to have released an "X-flare" this
past week on the backside.)
end quote

This was the HUGE backside SOLAR ERUPTION referenced in Eve's 1-05-2023 post
(see above quote) -- this was said to be a "circumstantial X-CLASS FLARE" because
there were no cameras directly recording the originating flare. (Video was posted a few posts up...but I think
it is a GOOD IDEA to keep the videos together. Right?


[link to youtu.be (secure)]

January 3rd report/video on LARGE SOLAR BACKSIDE ERUPTION:
From NemesisMaturity Youtube channel (Athens Greece)

INTERESTING TIMES WE LIVE IN! (Hurray!)


The Oracle's Cookie

Fast-rising flare from new AR3182.

X-flare! X1.2

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

GOES SUVI images:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

D-RAP centered near New Zealand:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

06 Jan 2023 00:57:00 GMT X1.2

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

https://twitter.com/_/status/1611168278482763777

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 289
Issue Time: 2023 Jan 06 0106 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Jan 06 0057 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

(it went up to R3)

AR3182-

:AR3182:
:3182_mag:

X1.2 flare-



Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 742
Issue Time: 2023 Jan 06 0125 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2023 Jan 06 0055 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 Jan 06 0056 UTC
End Time: 2023 Jan 06 0058 UTC
Duration: 3 minutes
Peak Flux: 420 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 154 sfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Quicklook movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Here is a "classy presentation" of the X-class flaring
event (see posts above this for more info) from
NemesisMaturity in Athens, Greece.


[link to youtu.be (secure)]

2 1/2 minute duration. Great graphics!

This week could be a little "dicey!"


The Oracle's Cookie

Solarsoft close-up movie of X1.2-

AIA193:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com (secure)]

Other wavelengths:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com (secure)]