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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
Helios Maximus

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05/09/2023 10:34 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Got up today and saw this story and came here to post it. It quickly got lost in today's rash of unfolding solar events. This event happened yesterday afternoon.....

Likely meteorite crashes through New Jersey home

A suspected space rock hit a house in central New Jersey on Monday afternoon, an incredibly rare event that is under investigation by police and scientists.

"It penetrated the roof, the ceiling and then impacted the hardwood floor before coming to a rest," the police department said. No one was injured during the incident.

Full article w/pics here:

[link to www.accuweather.com (secure)]

hiding
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Simple27

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05/09/2023 11:02 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Lol, I posted about it too!

Possible meteorite crashed through New Jersey homeowner's roof


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Simple27

~*Ride the Wave*~
Helios Maximus

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05/09/2023 11:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
SEEDS SoHO C2 CME movie:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

The M5.0 flare seemed to reinforce the large CME from the M4.3. The plasma seemed to flow out for hours. Also there was some minor flows from the earlier M-flares which got swept up by the big fast one. We could see a major impact when this energetic cloud arrives. The arrival of the previous CME ahead of schedule tells me this one will get here real quick.

SoHO C2 48-hour movie:

[link to soho.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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05/10/2023 12:08 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
ODDS & ENDS......

* I notice the new surge of protons also raised the blue line (>50MeV) of higher energy particles. This didn't happen with the first halo CME.

P-flux:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

* Observing the current CME arrival I noticed that the Density increased to a peak of 64 p/cu.cm and remained elevated for nearly an hour. I was surprised to this high of a density from this event. We rarely see it exceed 30-35. The Bz has been mostly North or we'd see a much stronger storm.

ACE Solar Wind data:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

* I see at least 3 Delta spots within AR3296-- 1 strong one and 2 smaller areas. Delta designation is when spots of opposite polarity are within the same penumbra. This is a good recipe for an X-flare!

banana2
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
WyatteSmith
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05/10/2023 07:03 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Holy crap! Busy lately!!!
Helios Maximus

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05/10/2023 10:23 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
M-flare rising....

GONG pic:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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05/10/2023 10:27 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
M-flare rising....

GONG pic:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


M2.27 peak.
5a
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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05/10/2023 10:46 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
M 2.27 was from AR3296.

GOES SUVI:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Quicklook movie (SDO):

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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05/10/2023 09:59 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Isis One

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05/10/2023 11:18 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I've been glued to this chair for hours now, lol. Unable to tear myself away due to all this action. I dread going back to a normal job, but I don't want to get evicted.

SDO 24-hour movie shows 3296 as a bubbling cauldron...6 M-flares:

[link to sdodata.oma.be]

deviltard
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


Why not inquire at nasa or sdo for some type of remote work? Managing data or something.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Isis One

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05/10/2023 11:22 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Lol, I posted about it too!

Possible meteorite crashed through New Jersey homeowner's roof


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Simple27

 Quoting: Simple27


Wouldn’t it be super heated? Having just blown down through the atmosphere?
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Helios Maximus

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05/11/2023 12:19 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
CACTus CONfusion!-

After long delays and several missteps (now deleted), there's now a 'corrected' CACTus analysis of the big halo CME. Initially they broke it into 2 halves for some reason. They had the weak side (East) as a Type II CME at 1735 km/s (!) and the strong side (West) as a Type III clocked at 736 km/s.... this made no sense whatsoever. CACTus stands for Computer Aided CME Tracking and as we all know computers lack common sense, LOL.

As usual, they pull a switcheroo and modify the models to something more sensible.

We now have a TYPE IV FULL HALO CME with a median velocity of 892 km/s (Max of 1953 km/s). This sounds reasonable to me. I've long had reservations about CACTus speed estimations, but I suppose it's the best we have unless you want to do the math yourself.

Here's the updated details:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

The CME could arrive at any time now. Most predictions center around 1100z-1200z today. But as usual there's a +/- 7 hours window (that's a 14-hour error cushion). I expect a strong impact initially w/ high speed and density. Normally I would predict a very deep magnetic storm from this event (G3-G4); however, watching the weak effects of the 1st CME I remembered that the source was a reverse-polarity region.

All things considered, I foresee a strong storm at first (G2) due to the velocity and density overcoming any North polarity of the Bz. Then one of 2 things may happen--1) If the polarity remains positive as in the 1st one, we'll see a weaker geomagnetic effect over time OR 2) the Bz polarity may oscillate up and down (as it commonly does) and we may see waves of G3 or more.

I haven't even looked at NOAA's forecast yet, the NASA 'scoreboard' predictions are generally Kp 5-Kp 8, LOL. Yeah, I'm pretty sure it will be in that range, haha. Had this been a normal North Hemisphere sunspot I would expect a negative Bz and a very strong storm.

We've witnessed large Earth-directed CMEs last cycle which were mostly North (positive) for 10 hours and then mysteriously go South (negative) for 8 hours with G4+ storming. So anything is possible.... that's why we watch!

I hope the Professor Skov video gave you some insight into how difficult these things are to predict. I don't always agree with everything she says but I always learn something I didn't know before.....

NASA CME Scorboard:

[link to kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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05/11/2023 12:41 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Lol, I posted about it too!

Possible meteorite crashed through New Jersey homeowner's roof


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Simple27

 Quoting: Simple27


Wouldn’t it be super heated? Having just blown down through the atmosphere?
 Quoting: Isis One


I would think so, too, but they say it would only be slightly warmer than room temperature. when it hits ground level. I guess they only cook in the ionosphere cause it has a charred outer crust when it lands in your living room.

hiding
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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05/11/2023 01:07 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I've been glued to this chair for hours now, lol. Unable to tear myself away due to all this action. I dread going back to a normal job, but I don't want to get evicted.

SDO 24-hour movie shows 3296 as a bubbling cauldron...6 M-flares:

[link to sdodata.oma.be]

deviltard
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


Why not inquire at nasa or sdo for some type of remote work? Managing data or something.
 Quoting: Isis One


Ha haha, I can barely manage the data in my checkbook. I'm more of a journalist, communicator, philosopher/poet or something. I'm a rare individual who dropped out of both High School AND College, LOL. I feel like an 'idiot-savant' when it comes to solar activity... completely self-educated. I did apply at NASA to be a tour guide at the Kennedy Space Center when I was in Florida... never heard back from them.

When Obama signed his 'Space-Weather' Executive Order covering ALL Federal Agencies, I'd hoped to see jobs available for lecturers or briefers for FEMA or DHS employees in need of space weather education. Unfortunately a PHD. @ GLP disqualifies me from government work, LOL.

5a5a5a
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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05/11/2023 05:32 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
M2.2 from AR3294 in the South.

Quicklook movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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05/11/2023 02:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Another M-flare from AR3294

M 1.89

GONG (Canary Islands):

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

SUVI images:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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05/11/2023 02:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Still awaiting CME arrival....

Realtime Solar Winds:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

ACE Solar Wind and particle data:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

manhole5
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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05/11/2023 03:12 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
M1.9 from ar3294 coincided with a filament activation near ar3297 north of the equator...

Solar Demon movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Dimming animation:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

drevil
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Isis One

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05/11/2023 08:25 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I hear ya Hugh!

Guess the halo cme is a bust!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
WyatteSmith
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05/11/2023 08:40 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I hear ya Hugh!

Guess the halo cme is a bust!
 Quoting: Isis One


K index rising...
The Oracle's Cookie

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05/11/2023 08:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
M1.9 from ar3294 coincided with a filament activation near ar3297 north of the equator...

Solar Demon movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Dimming animation:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

drevil
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


Very cool! Thanks!

cheers
The Oracle's Cookie
The Oracle's Cookie

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05/11/2023 08:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I hear ya Hugh!

Guess the halo cme is a bust!
 Quoting: Isis One


K index rising...
 Quoting: WyatteSmith


This is a good site to check daily:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

cheers
The Oracle's Cookie
Helios Max
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05/11/2023 08:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Still awaiting CME arrival....

Realtime Solar Winds:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

ACE Solar Wind and particle data:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

manhole5
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


CME should arrive any minute now.... unless it's a no-show....
Helios Maximus

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05/11/2023 10:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Another CME was launched with the M2 flare from AR3294. Possible Earth-directed components.

SEEDS movie of CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

STEREO cor 2 image:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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05/11/2023 10:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I hear ya Hugh!

Guess the halo cme is a bust!
 Quoting: Isis One


K index rising...
 Quoting: WyatteSmith


It's not too unusual for CMEs to arrive 12 hours later than expected... it happens a lot. In cycle 24 we saw 2 or 3 Earth-directed CMEs just vanish into thin space. I still can't figure out how that happened, but it's a possibility.

In this case, I feel that even if the bulk plasma misses to the west we still oughtta see a shock to the magnetosphere. It was a FULL HALO, so Earth should be well within the zone of influence. For now I'm just assuming its late and slower than the models suggest. The avg. travel time is roughly 3 days so I wouldn't give up on it yet. We're at about 56 hours now... out of a 72-hr window. I thought it looked faster than avg. but our methods of measuring these things are only primitive guesswork at best.

TB-waitn
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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05/12/2023 03:34 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 250
Issue Time: 2023 May 12 0640 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2023 May 12 0635 UTC
Deviation: 34 nT
Station: OTT


NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Weak CME impact.

Bz is North so far....

Solar Winds:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Digital mix guy Spock

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05/12/2023 02:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
bump
Have no fear, Spock is here!!! LLAP
Anonymous Coward
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05/12/2023 05:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I hear ya Hugh!

Guess the halo cme is a bust!
 Quoting: Isis One


K index rising...
 Quoting: WyatteSmith


It's not too unusual for CMEs to arrive 12 hours later than expected... it happens a lot. In cycle 24 we saw 2 or 3 Earth-directed CMEs just vanish into thin space. I still can't figure out how that happened, but it's a possibility.

In this case, I feel that even if the bulk plasma misses to the west we still oughtta see a shock to the magnetosphere. It was a FULL HALO, so Earth should be well within the zone of influence. For now I'm just assuming its late and slower than the models suggest. The avg. travel time is roughly 3 days so I wouldn't give up on it yet. We're at about 56 hours now... out of a 72-hr window. I thought it looked faster than avg. but our methods of measuring these things are only primitive guesswork at best.

TB-waitn
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


Maybe they rigged the system and LIED.
Anonymous Coward
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05/12/2023 05:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I hear ya Hugh!

Guess the halo cme is a bust!
 Quoting: Isis One


K index rising...
 Quoting: WyatteSmith


It's not too unusual for CMEs to arrive 12 hours later than expected... it happens a lot. In cycle 24 we saw 2 or 3 Earth-directed CMEs just vanish into thin space. I still can't figure out how that happened, but it's a possibility.

In this case, I feel that even if the bulk plasma misses to the west we still oughtta see a shock to the magnetosphere. It was a FULL HALO, so Earth should be well within the zone of influence. For now I'm just assuming its late and slower than the models suggest. The avg. travel time is roughly 3 days so I wouldn't give up on it yet. We're at about 56 hours now... out of a 72-hr window. I thought it looked faster than avg. but our methods of measuring these things are only primitive guesswork at best.

TB-waitn
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


Maybe they rigged the system and LIED.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 80057564


This world is ruled by LYING and stealing.
Helios Maximus

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05/12/2023 07:53 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
C 5 with ejecta on the NW limb.

One characteristic of the GONG h-alpha images is their poor visibility of limb events. This is a rare instance where a CME is even visible by GONG telescopes... very rare in my experience.

GONG (Australia) h-alpha image:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

GOES SUVI (best view in 304angstroms):

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

5a
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779





GLP