SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

its going high.... excalating goes graphic ...

high x may be on to happen logically

uv x bomb

M5.3

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

M 5.4 flare!

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 312
Issue Time: 2023 May 19 0052 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 19 0048 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES SUVI images:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Those filaments are Weird dense and fliyng

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

NOAA forecast of 'isolated M-flare' is a total joke! If AR3311 isn't B-G-D I'll eat my hat.... and I got a big hat, LOL.

# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity 24 hr Summary...

Solar activity reached high levels due to a total of 8 low level M-class
flares. Region 3311 (N18E76, Dao/Beta), the culprit of said activity,
was numbered this period as it rotated into view on the far northeastern
limb. Of the previously stated M-class flares from AR 3311, an M4.5
flare at 18/2105 UTC was the largest. Region 3310 (S20E59, Dho/Beta) was
much quieter this period in comparison to the last. Region 3305 (N12W43,
Dsi/Beta-Gamma) saw some redevelopment in its western intermediate
spots, but was relatively quiet as well. Region 3308 (N12W28, Cao/Beta)
exhibited some minor growth in its leading spot, but like the remaining
active regions, was otherwise unremarkable.

Two filaments appear to have erupted from the NE quadrant this period.
The first began around 18/1333 UTC and was centered near N50E60 and was
likely reabsorbed. The second nearby filament began shortly after around
18/1503 UTC and was centered near N31E40. GOES-16 SUVI 195 and 304
imagery suggest that this filament lifted off successfully and have a
easterly biased trajectory. However, we await SOHO-NASA coronagraph
imagery to conduct a proper analysis and modeling efforts.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class
flare activity (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through 21 May.

Latest 24-hour SDO movies featuring NINE M-flares from AR3311:

[link to sdodata.oma.be]

M 3.86 flare-

:M3.86flare:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 139 Issued at 0030Z on 19 May 2023
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 18 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 18/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
3301 N14W51 036 0005 Axx 01 03 Alpha
3302 N18W47 032 0030 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
3305 N12W43 028 0100 Dsi 09 12 Beta-Gamma
3307 S08W10 355 0010 Bxo 03 05 Beta
3308 N12W28 013 0060 Cao 05 08 Beta
3309 S19W64 049 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
3310 S20E59 286 0250 Dho 05 05 Beta
3311 N18E76 269 0110 Dao 10 06 Beta

New AR 3311-

:AR3311:
:3311_mag:

AR3310-

:AR3310:
:3310_mag:

Howdy, Wyatte.

Hot Damn! You got the goods!!!

Well we got that isolated M-flare out of the way in less than an hour... maybe an X-flare is coming soon.

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 183
Issue Time: 2023 May 19 0123 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2023 May 19 0041 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 May 19 0048 UTC
End Time: 2023 May 19 0054 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.3
Location: N18E76
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

Solarsoft cutout movie of M5.4:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com (secure)]

Solar Demon movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

#10 - M 1.62 from ar3311.

GONG:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

SUVI:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

3311 is havin' a real party! Don't be surprised when the x-rays go back up again.....

Flaring Continues
May 19, 2023 @ 03:30 UTC

At least nine M-Flares during the past 24 hours, all of which were centered around newly assigned AR 3311. As of this update, the largest event was an M5.3 flare at 00:48 UTC (May 19). So far, none of the flares appear to have generated a coronal mass ejection (CME). An increased chance for an isolated X-Flare is now present.

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

15% chance for an X flare

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

#11 from 3311.

M 2.5......

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

A bouncy M flare... 2.7

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Another double-shot from AR3311.

M2.32 and M2.75

GOES X-ray flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Solar Ultraviolet Imager:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Still going up...

X-rays remained above M1 for 90 minutes again. I think this happened 2 times yesterday, too. These are definitely big-league Solar Max type events. Unless this AR calms down we could see even bigger LDEs as it turns toward Earth.

Solar Demon movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

I haven't checked here in a few days. I knew to come here as I haven't felt good since I woke up today. I guess I just knew something was up

K-Index is ramping up....

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]


Anyone know why?

I don't know, but it's at Kp4. It wasn't that high earlier, maybe 2?

:Issued: 2023 May 20 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity 24 hr Summary...

Solar activity reached high levels due to 5 M-class flares from Region
3311 (N17E60, Ekc/beta-delta). The largest was an M5.3/1n at 19/0048
UTC. Regions 3305 (N12W57, Dai/beta), 3310 (S20E48, Cko/beta), and 3311
continued to exhibit growth over the period. Slight decay was observed
in Region 3308. New regions 3312 (S25E70, Cro/beta) and 3313 (N22E75,
Hsx/alpha) were numbered.

The CME activity associated with a filament eruption in the SW quadrant
at 19/0730 UTC was modelled and determined to not have an Earth-directed
component. An approximate 10 degree filament eruption was observed
beginning at 19/1300 UTC in SDO/AIA 304 imagery near N18W14. However, no
discernable CME was associated.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares likely
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), and a chance for an isolated X-class flare
(R3/Strong) through 22 May.

:AR3311+friend:
:3311_HMIBC:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 140 Issued at 0030Z on 20 May 2023
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 19 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 19/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
3302 N18W58 030 0050 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
3305 N12W57 029 0240 Dai 10 18 Beta
3307 S09W20 352 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
3308 N12W41 013 0070 Cao 06 15 Beta
3309 S18W77 049 0010 Bxo 03 03 Beta
3310 S20E48 284 0320 Cko 07 08 Beta
3311 N17E60 272 0330 Ekc 13 12 Beta-Delta
3312 S25E70 262 0040 Cro 05 06 Beta
3313 N22E75 257 0030 Hsx 02 01 Alpha

:AR3310+friend:
:3310_HMIBC:

Hahaha... at least a brief dose of icewater .

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 526
Issue Time: 2023 May 20 0301 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 20 0259 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Solar Wind data:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

They changed there mind about the Auroras....

@_SpaceWeather_
Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6)
Threshold Reached: 02:59 UTC
Follow live on [link to spaceweather.live (secure)]