SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

M6.66 at 3:33 AM

Do I win some sort of GLP Illuminati prize?

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

I just noticed we had an M1.0 from AR3312 as a foreshock.

SUVI:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 759
Issue Time: 2023 May 20 0745 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2023 May 20 0731 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 May 20 0731 UTC
End Time: 2023 May 20 0732 UTC
Duration: 1 minutes
Peak Flux: 170 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 165 sfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 313
Issue Time: 2023 May 20 0734 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 20 0730 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

M 6.5 was from 3311 again.

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

SDO movie:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com (secure)]

Here's the precursor flare from 3312:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

...and the M6:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

x-rays still high:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

M 8.9 !

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

SUVI:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 05/20/2023 09:11 AM

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 314
Issue Time: 2023 May 20 1237 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 20 1234 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

X-rays going vertical again!

M 5.68

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

SUVI:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Here's the May 20, 2023 updated SDO movie (including partial eclipse):

[link to sdodata.oma.be]

Anything earth directed?

M 5+ again.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

M5.2

SUVI images:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 316
Issue Time: 2023 May 20 2310 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2023 May 20 2305 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

D-layer Absorption model:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

That's not a simple question. If the sun is shining the photons are Earth-directed. Likewise the x-rays are detected by GOES sats in Earth orbit and reach us within 8 minutes at light-speed. As far as CMEs or plasma ejections go, they are very dependent on the source of the eruptions. Usually a rule of thumb is with +/- 30 degrees of mid-disk there's a good chance of geoeffectiveness. This is also contingent on the size, speed and direction of the CME. Each event is unique.

As far as this recent spate of very strong flares go, I haven't seen any major ejections yet. At this point they wouldn't be Earth-directed anyway as AR3311 is still too far from mid-disk. That may change in the next few days as the sunspot rotates into a position directly facing the Earth. Also, keep in mind that CMEs typically can take 2-4 days to travel the 93 million miles towards Earth.

Thanks for asking.

I appreciate the well thought out, honest answer!

Another Ten-flare....

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 760
Issue Time: 2023 May 20 2322 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2023 May 20 2302 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 May 20 2303 UTC
End Time: 2023 May 20 2304 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 170 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 170 sfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Solar Demon movie of M5.2:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

Everything I know about this stuff I learned from participating in this GLP thread during Cycle 24. I've always been fascinated by astronomy and I have a curious mind. I had the good fortune of benefitting from the world-wide-web and the recent advances in solar observations thanks to SoHO, SDO, STEREO, etc. I just followed the links and and asked the right questions....

I was amazed to find out no one knew there was such a thing as a CME until the 1970's. Even Eugene Parker's theory of 'solar winds' was considered a crack-pot fairy tale before the 'space age' proved him right. NASA & DoD were completely shocked to find that outer space is intensely radioactive in the 1950's.

I was born shortly after Sputnik so I have a lifelong connection to space exploration and discoveries. In historical terms, this is a baby science-- and the 'experts' know a helluva lot less than they pretend to know. The SUN is the most important and influential thing in the human environment. It's exciting to report on each new discovery and theory.

It's ironic to think that astronomers understand billions & billions of stars in the visible universe, yet they have no true understanding of the one star which gives us LIFE and we can sense close up everyday.

This is why WE WATCH.

Space missions set to improve solar storm forecasts

The European Space Agency (ESA) will launch 'Vigil' in the mid-2020s, a first-of-its-kind mission that will monitor potentially hazardous solar activity using a number of UK-built instruments.

By launching the spacecraft into a position 60 degrees behind Earth in longitude, the Met Office will be able to improve space weather forecasts by using data assimilation of the NRT solar wind data. (snip)

Old dogs and new tricks
To predict space weather, scientists need to forecast the solar wind conditions at Earth. To do this, they combine computer simulations with observations from space to estimate what space weather will be like. This is known as data assimilation. The highest quality observations only become available many days after they are made, as they are processed on the ground and 'cleaned', meaning forecasts take longer to achieve.

To obtain forecasts faster, the research team tried using near-real-time (NRT) data. NRT data undergoes no processing or cleaning, meaning it is less accurate but can be made available within a couple of hours. The research team found that forecasts produced using the NRT data still produces reliable predictions and enables greater warning time. This could enable authorities to better prepare for power failures that cost up to 2.1 trillion dollars over a century in the USA and Europe. (snip)

(<50%)

Full report here:
[link to www.spacedaily.com (secure)]

If I understand this correctly, it's not a radical new idea. It's the same concept of having a STEREO A and STEREO B. I've already used STEREO solar wind data to predict the speed of coronal hole streams before they faced Earth. The loss of STEREO B was a huge setback in having a 360-degree view as envisioned. We actually need a QUAD A,B,C,D for continuous coverage. Still it seems like a worthwhile project.

The LaGrange Point orbits are ahead and behind Earth's position from the sun. L1 is where SoHO, ACE & DSCOVR hang out (roughly 1 million miles closer to the sun). L4 and L5 are in Earth's orbit, only 60-degrees away. More on LaGrange Points here:
[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

Link to science paper here:

Solar Wind Data Assimilation in an Operational Context: Use of Near-Real-Time Data and the Forecast Value of an L5 Monitor

[link to agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com (secure)]

That is so true! I have wondered how is it we claim to go to Mars, yet can't accurately predict weather here on Earth.

I am now learning from you. I learned all I know about volcanoes and earthquakes in the same way, right here on GLP.

M 1.4

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

M1.4 from 3311.

I've completely lost count, but this close to 18 M-flares in the last 72 hours.

GONG pic (India):

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

Howdy, MisterSplinter!

I'm always happy to see you post!

:Issued: 2023 May 21 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity 24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was at high levels. Region 3311 (N18E47,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for 7 M-flares (R1-R2
Minor-Moderate). The largest was an impulsive M8.9 flare at 20/1235 UTC.
Slight growth was observed in the northern section of Region 3311,
whereas separation and decay was observed in the intermediate and leader
spots. The M5.1/2b flare observed at 23/2306 UTC was accompanied by a
Tenflare (170 sfu). Very little change was observed in Region 3312
(S25E57, Cai/beta), although it was still responsible for several
C-class flares as well as an M1 flare at 20/0927 UTC. Slight decay was
also observed in Regions 3305 (N12W71, Dki/beta) and 3308 (N12W54,
Cao/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate to high levels. Further
M-class flares are likely (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) with a chance for
X-class flares (R3/Strong) on 21-23 May primarily due to the flare
potential of Region 3311.

AR3311 Beta-Gamma-Delta .... Watch Out!

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 141 Issued at 0030Z on 21 May 2023
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 20 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
3302 N18W72 031 0030 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
3305 N12W71 030 0250 Dki 10 15 Beta
3308 N12W54 013 0050 Cao 06 08 Beta
3310 S20E34 285 0310 Cko 05 06 Beta
3311 N18E47 272 0410 Ekc 14 18 Beta-Gamma-Delta
3312 S25E57 262 0030 Cai 04 06 Beta
3313 N22E63 256 0050 Hsx 01 01 Alpha

AR3311 has complex magnetic fields-

:3311_mag2:

I was feeling tired but this came on the radio and re-energized me. I hope you can relate....

M 2.6 - AR3311

GONG pic:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

Quicklook movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

LEMME TEL U SOLAR TARDS SOMETHIN'.... THAT SUN IS INTENSE! UH.
IM 'OUT~THERE' EVERY MUCKUH-LUCKIN' DHAY...AND 'THAT' IS NOT
THE SUN THAT I GREW UP WITH IN THE 70'S LIKE THE FRICKIN' UH,
WONDUH YEARZZZzzz.... ITZ~HOT AND 'BURNY'... SIZZLE sizzle..uh

^^^
What he said.

I'll need to watch this 2 or 3 more times-- it's a lot to absorb in one sitting. This lays out the foundational science behind the "Electric Sun" theory. Nonetheless I'm looking forward to Part 2.



[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

C 9.9 from departing AR3305 on the NW limb.

GOES SUVI:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]