SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

I haven't really looked into it yet, but believe it's a signal dropout when the GOES-16 satellite is eclipsed by Earth for a brief time. NOAA Satellite Operations center usually posts a schedule of eclipsing events for each of its geostationary satellites.

I did a deep dive on this topic during Cycle 24 so I'll try to find some links.....

Thanks for responding to that Hugh. I was curious myself.

Yes, it seems that'aurora season' is also eclipse season for geostationary weather satellites (late Aug-mid-Oct).

GOES Eclipse Schedule

KOZ (KEEP OUT ZONE) / ECLIPSE

GOES satellites encounter two periods during the year in which they are in Earth's shadow. Known as the Eclipse (ECL) season, these periods require the spacecraft to be completely dependent upon batteries for a maximum of 72 minutes daily. Eclipses occur approximately from late February to mid-April, and from late August to mid-October.

GOES-14/15/16/17 - There is a significant risk of light from the sun directly entering the scanners and causing degraded products as the spacecraft enters and leaves the Earth's shadow, requiring a special algorithm to be applied to the Imager products. In some instances shifting, cancelling, or truncating the frame is necessary. This is known as the "Stray Light Zone (SLZ)." The seasonal charts describe the GOES-East and GOES-West Imager and Sounder scan frames that are canceled or shifted due to SLZ.

More details can be found here:
[link to www.ospo.noaa.gov (secure)]

Daily eclipse schedule listed down to second!

[link to www.ospo.noaa.gov (secure)]

BE FOREWARNED!--Anomalous weather imagery and other false data and dropouts will almost certainly be used by tards on YouTube to claim proof of alien visitations, HAARP shenanigans, top secret photon torpedo tests, etc, etc....

The GOES satellites' primary mission is 24/7 weather imagery across many bandwidths. They also monitor the Earth's space environment pertaining to LEO satellites (electron flux, magnetometer and x-ray flux).

Weird effects may occur as GOES enters and leaves the Earth's shadow. Here's NOAA's warning about just one product the 'lightning mapper'.......

During eclipse season with the GOES-R satellite series Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), solar intrusion into the lens assembly will result in localized blooming (false events) and saturation (blind regions) in the data. These effects will occur daily around the same time as the ABI effects (0500 UTC and 0900 UTC). The daily effects begin with many false events at the limb, which cover regions of varying size and location as the eclipse features move across the field of view. The false events will peak during the beginning and end of the eclipse season and the 20-second files will intermittently peak in size above 3-5 MB per file during false events, which is well above the average of ~0.3 MB per file.
The increased number of false events can cause an overflow condition in the electronics which saturates the event processing. This saturation creates blind regions in the data outside of the areas impacted by the solar intrusion.

[link to www.ospo.noaa.gov (secure)]



Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 09/03/2021 11:46 PM

I don't know which strain the boys in Boulder are smokin' nowadays, but I wish I had some. I'm getting exasperated correcting their boneheaded mistakes.

I watched a new sunspot form in the NORTHEAST quadrant all day today. I was waiting for a flare before posting about it. Anyway, the SWPC has numbered a new spot AR2864....in the SOUTH. This mistake was made 2 times.

In other news, I've counted SIX sunspots just now. Two are just tiny dots in the South; another is a mature sunspot coming over the SE limb; a fourth is forming in the Northeast; plus the 2 NOAA has numbered.

Have a look for yourself:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

SWPC Discussion (derp)-

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2863 (S16E15, Dso/beta) underwent
minor growth this period, primarily in the trailer spot area, but
remained mostly quiet. New Region 2864 (S23E22, Cro/beta) emerged and
was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class
flares, over 04-06 Sep.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 247 Issued at 0030Z on 04 Sep 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 03 Sep
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 03/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2863 S16E15 257 0160 Dso 05 09 Beta
2864 S23E22 250 0030 Cro 03 04 Beta

++++Those coordinates for 2864 should be N23E22. (if I'm wrong I'll apologize. If I'm right the Dept. of Commerce should apologize, lol)

I just noticed the GOES 16 data drop on the X-ray flux, so I checked their Eclipse Schedule. It was exactly at 4:37z just as predicted.

PENUMBRA 2021/09/04 04:37:56 2021/09/04 04:41:36 3.67 EARTH

Full schedule fro GOES 16:
[link to www.ospo.noaa.gov (secure)]

Wow. Awesome info.

I'm vindicated once again. NOAA sunspot# 2864 is in the north, not the south (although spaceweather.com has yet to correct their graphic).

AR2864 images:

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

Also TWO new sunspots have been numbered 2865 & 2866.

SolarHam lists all numbered regions and their locations here:

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

Now we just wait for some flares.....

MORE SUNSPOTS-The two tiny dots in the south that I mentioned last night have both grown considerably today. One in the SW has been numbered AR2867 according to SolarHam. The other is growing in between 2863 and 2866 in the SE.

With 6 active regions we can expect the official NOAA Sunspot Number to jump to 80 or higher. It's only a matter of time before we see some good flares.

Latest HMI Intensitygram:
[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

Images of current numbered regions:

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

The Solar Surface is Peppered With Multiple Sunspots


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

The SILSO (Belgium) International Sunspot Number has spiked up accordingly.

Graph:
[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

More coming up soon......

When NOAA's SWPC screws up it has a ripple effect of ramifications across the scientific community. Besides spaceweather.com mis-locating 2864, Lockheed's Solarsoft has done the same thing (based on SWPC's error).

A recent B4 flare from un-numbered region (2868) is displayed here. Note the wrong location of 2864 in the graphic:

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

The Dancing Chimps routine is as contagious as the Pi variant... Anyone paying attention would've caught and corrected this error almost immediately. Scientists reputation is sinking as low as journalists, health officials, Congress-critters and used car salesmen.

The un-numbered region mentioned above appears to be the fastest growing region on the disk. I can't understand why NOAA failed to number it, as I've been watching it grow all day. I even mentioned it being a 'tiny dot' 24 hours ago! I hereby christen it AR2868.


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary

SRS Number 248 Issued at 0030Z on 05 Sep 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 04 Sep
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 04/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2863 S16E02 256 0090 Cso 05 05 Beta
2864 N24E10 248 0050 Dao 04 07 Beta
2865 N22E25 233 0010 Bxo 04 03 Beta
2866 S18E63 195 0040 Bxo 02 02 Beta
2867 S18W74 332 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha

Aside from Mr.2868, I'd also note that AR2867 is NOT an alpha spot. It's nearing the SW limb so it's getting harder to see the magnetogram. AR 2864 (now in its proper home) is also growing may start flaring soon.

NOAA Discussion-

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low with B-class flares. New Regions 2865
(N22E25, Bxo/beta), 2866 (S18E63, Bxo/beta), and 2867 (S18W74,
Axx/alpha) were numbered this period. Regions 2863 (S16E02, Cso/beta)
and 2864 (N24E10, Dao/beta) were stable and mostly quiet. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class
flares, over 05-07 Sep.

Latest HMI Magnetogram:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

Our new un-numbered friend (2868) has just produced a B6 flare.

SolarDemon movie:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

I also found a disturbing image of a mushroom cloud in a GONG h-alpha image:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

Weird, huh?

Oo that is weird! How cool you found it. It reminds me of a really old microfiche lol

And ty for posting the daily eclipse info, pretty neato(!) and great pic too!

Peculiar B8 flare from AR2865, now a spotless plage. Interestingly, I don't see it recorded anywhere yet.

This could possibly be a small filament release.

GONG pic of B8 flare:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

EDIT: Solarsoft has later posted it:

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 09/05/2021 10:41 PM

NOAA/SWPC Discussion--

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low with B-class flare activity. Regions 2864
(N24W05, Dao/beta), 2866 (S17E48, Dai/beta), and 2868 (S21E33, Dso/beta)
all exhibited growth throughout the period, but were quiet. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class
flares, over 06-08 Sep.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 249 Issued at 0030Z on 06 Sep 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 05 Sep
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 05/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2863 S16W10 255 0040 Cso 06 04 Beta
2864 N24W05 250 0090 Dao 07 08 Beta
2866 S17E48 197 0080 Dai 06 08 Beta
2868 S21E33 212 0060 Dso 07 06 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 05/2400Z Sep
Nmbr Location Lo
2861 N16W78 323
2865 N23E13 232
2867 S18W85 330
II. Regions Due to Return 06 Sep to 08 Sep
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

SolarHam images for Sunspot Regions:

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

Soteria SS Region map:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

there is anothr big filament there again

and more ... dark matter opening spots

Something is happening - looking at all data - and the lack of reporting or wrong reporting is worrisome .

Bump

POSSIBLE EARTH-DIRECTED EXPLOSION: Yesterday, Sept. 5th, decaying sunspot AR2865 produced a B7-class solar flare. The explosion sent a shadowy shock wave rippling through the sun's lower atmosphere and may have hurled a faint CME toward Earth. ETA: Sept. 8-9. Stay tuned for updates about this potentially geoeffective event.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

"possible" lol

https://imgur.com/DJEEqCN

Big Sunspots
September 6, 2021 @ 19:05 UTC

Both AR 2866 and 2868 located in the southeast quadrant are large sunspot groups, but so far have lacked the magnetic instability to generate noteworthy solar flares. Over the past 24 hours AR 2866 showed gradual spot growth, especially within the central portion of the group. This region should be monitored closely as it continues to evolve and turns into a better Earth facing position. AR 2868 also expanded in terms of area coverage, but separation between the leader spot and trailing spots was evident. An increased chance for at least minor C-Class solar flares is likely.

https://imgur.com/RCJVX7J

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

ELLERMAN BOMBS: Bombs are going off in new sunspot AR2866. They're called "Ellerman bombs." A handful are circled in this image taken yesterday by Philippe Tosi of Nîmes, France.

https://imgur.com/96Klqxm

Ellerman bombs are magnetic explosions about one-millionth as powerful as true solar flares. They are named after physicist Ferdinand Ellerman who studied the tiny blasts in the early 20th century. Of course, "tiny" is relative. A single Ellerman bomb releases about 1026 ergs of energy--equal to about 100,000 World War II atomic bombs.

If sunspot AR2866 continues to blow off steam with Ellerman bombs, it might not produce a big flare. Either way, it's a dynamic target for solar photographers.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

Finally some C-flares today. An earlier C1 from AR2866 and this recent C2.4 from 2864 in the north.

GONG pic (from behind the Iron Curtain in Australia):

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

The C2 event seems to involve a small embedded filament and may produce an Earth-directed CME.

SolarDemon movie:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

Stay alert. I sense more flares coming soon;)

Chance of M-flares.....

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...

Regions 2866 (S18E21, Dkc/beta) and 2868 (S21E05, Dso/beta), both in the
southeast quadrant, continue to be the largest and most interesting
sunspot groups on the visible disk. Region 2866 produced a C1/Sf flare
at 07/0934 UTC, but was fairly quiet otherwise despite its complexity
and size. Region 2868 was also quiet, and showed some signs of decay
among its trailing spots. Region 2864 (N24W31, Cso/beta) underwent
significant decay, losing the bulk of its trailing spots. Region 2863
(S17W40, Hsx/alpha) has remained stable and inactive.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low 07-10 Sep, with a slight chance of
M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) given the
complexity and size of the two spot groups in the southeastern quadrant.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 251 Issued at 0030Z on 08 Sep 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 07 Sep
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 07/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2863 S17W40 258 0080 Hsx 03 02 Alpha
2864 N24W31 249 0220 Cso 11 10 Beta
2866 S18E21 197 0430 Dkc 08 23 Beta
2868 S21E05 213 0240 Dso 10 10 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 07/2400Z Sep
Nmbr Location Lo
2865 N23W14 233

Latest HMI Intensitygram:
[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

Latest Magnetogram of AR2866 looks potentially volatile:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

C2.3 (LDE)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]