F.O.G.

Revise: 50% chance of one of these being a 6+ Mag. Lots or pressure build up in South America.

Would you say one is due east of the La Paz area? Seems like one might happen there (to fill in the blank):
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

South America map:
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

Very well could be. Lots of pressure build up in that spot. We shall see.

Because there are now so many mid-level earth quakes occurring all around the rim, i have decided to change my forcasting methods. I will only start forcasting where i think the next MAJOR QUAKE will hit. Major meaning 6+.

I'm still forcasting South America for the next major hit.

By the way, here is the hit for this forcast:

MAP 4.3 2011/05/05 11:21:06 -24.118 -66.953 170.1 SALTA, ARGENTINA

[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

It is wild out there today!!!
Wow!

I know. I can't get a fix on any energy flow, its all over the place... to much going on...crazy.

It seems so active I am waiting to feel an EQ in Ohio! Ha!

Yup, there it is! And it's south of La Paz, where I thought one was due to "fill in the blank" (i.e. add a square to the map).
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

Doesn't it still seem like South America is due for one north and east of La paz / around or south of Lima?
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

Yup, there it is! And it's south of La Paz, where I thought one was due to "fill in the blank" (i.e. add a square to the map).
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

Doesn't it still seem like South America is due for one north and east of La paz / around or south of Lima?
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]


Yes, even more due now. All these quakes today are sending a lot of energy toward SA. My forcast for a Major quake in SA is not changing.

Last Edited by Gabriel on 05/05/2011 05:26 PM

i expect some more big quakes tonight as well as tomorrow
i always watch early morning as it seems that a good majority of big 6+ quakes happen early in the day UTC time
the solar winds have been very high for many days now due to the coronal hole wind stream arriving at earth
today they subsided and dropped significantly
when the winds drop like this, we see a significant rise in larger quake activity
more large quakes to come
Keep up your great work Gabi :)

where in SA are you thinking Gabi?
i have been watching Argentina since yesterday morning
the reason for me watching it is the seismic activity at Antarctica, Argentina and Tristan da Cunha
[link to aslwww.cr.usgs.gov]
[link to aslwww.cr.usgs.gov]
[link to aslwww.cr.usgs.gov]

they look a bit calmer today
but for the last few days i have seen a large rise in what appears to be strong harmonics
When you look at these 3 places on a map, you can see they form a triangle. somewhere within that triangle, or close to the Argentina coast line look like something is brewing below the surface

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 05/05/2011 05:53 PM

Great work as usual Nin.... I'm thinking Bio Bio or areas south. Recent quakes seem to be inland a bit so Argentina could absolutely be in the hit zone. Crazy day, i can almost feel a big one coming tonight or in the morning, in my bones.

i feel a large north America quakes coming very soon
everytime i hit refresh on my quake sites i expect to see one
people do not like that being said, but looking at the Virgin Island quake swarms, Puerto Rico swarms, Arkansas swarms, all the larger quakes in Alaska & Baja Cali, and now Mexico
add to that the ancient caldera in Chihuahua Mexico where we have seen recent good sized quakes
Pin point mark all them on a map and it looks a bit erie :/

Hard to tell if these swarms are fore shocks or just good ole pressure release, i hope the latter. What concerns me on days like today, with the rim so active, to have an area so quiet like South America. Its been very quiet for a week with no pressure release. We shall see together i guess.

Just checkin in. Nice job. :)

Still forcasting major quake for SA.

Some other areas vulnerable for mid sized quakes today are New Guinea, Solomon Island regions.

10+ quakes in Turkey today.

Yep:
MAP 4.9 2011/05/06 20:26:35 -21.668 -179.353 593.9 FIJI REGION

Mexico down to Southern Chile should be put on high alert!!!

For Mexico and S.A

China/India area

Another:
MAP 4.8 2011/05/06 22:35:01 -7.481 153.392 51.5 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

Just got a 4.6 in South America. South of that La Paz area I've been watching:

Magnitude 4.6 - ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
2011 May 06 23:30:34 UTC


map: [link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

list: [link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

Good call. I figure more to come in that region.

Yup, ya got another hit:

Magnitude 5.1 - OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
2011 May 07 06:57:32 UTC

[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

South America map:
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

Yes, that along with this one could be enough pressure release to avoid a big one:

MAP 5.0 2011/05/07 10:33:46 -15.213 -74.414 70.7 NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN PERU

Energy flow toward New Zealand now.

Yep, finally got that one we've been expecting north / east of La Paz, south of Lima! 5.0 near the coast of southern Peru (in the upper left hand corner of the map:)
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]


Gabs, do you still expect a 6+ in S.A., or is the pressure off now?

I think the 5.0, 5.1 and the 4.8 in the last day was probably enough to avoid a 6+.