Obama will win in 2012 according to John Hogue | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1344538 United States 04/17/2011 02:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1280210 Czechia 04/17/2011 02:31 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | In the past century, there have been only four instances of a single term American president. Three of them were defeated primarily because of perceived mismanagement of the economy, while the other was undone by the independent candidacy of a maverick party member. Both of these factors are in play, yet again. The recent Republican midterm triumph, the continued damp economic forecast, high unemployment figures and the number of unfulfilled campaign promises by President Obama have thrown his future into speculation. Moreover, the winds of change that heralded his entry into the White House have somewhat fizzled out, while his much anticipated Health Care reforms is now buried beneath layers and layers of economic legalese and doomsday scenarios. America’s involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, our continued presence in Guantanamo and Obama’s questionable compromises with Congressional Republicans are seen as contributory factors in his low national approval ratings. More worryingly, there have been whispers and even an outright call of a challenge to Obama for the party’s nomination for the impending presidential election. While none have taken up the call, or even insinuated anything close to it, observers have pointed out how established and strongly funded candidates such as Mike Bloomberg, the Mayor of New York City, or Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, could potentially garner enough support either as a challenger or an independent candidate that could severely undermine an Obama campaign for a second term. A survey conducted by McClatchy-Marist following the recent disastrous midterm elections was inconclusive, as it revealed that over half of Democrats are against the idea of a challenger to President Obama renomination, while 40% of them wanted either a more conservative or liberal challenger. In addition, the same poll indicated that only 36% of respondents would reelect Obama in 2012. Even more alarmingly, a poll by the Associated Press showed that 54% of American believes that Obama should be voted out in the next election. Nevertheless, amidst the gloom and fear mongering, it is worth pointing out that President Obama’s approval rating of 46% has been consistently higher than the Congress’, which stood at only 25%. The midterm defeat was not an indirect referendum on Obama, as the defeats of Democratic candidates had as much to do with local issues as it had with national ones. Furthermore, his policies and legislations are still at its infancy, and with more than a year to go before the election, there are bound to be a change in fortune both economically and politically, while his health care reforms may begin to show a positive turnaround. However, the main factor that will assure his second term, according to observers, is the relatively weak field of Republicans challengers. The current Republican frontrunners, Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, have consistently been outperformed by President Obama in various national polls, and as his much anticipated rebound in the second quarter of his presidency occurs, his challenger, fresh from a bruising Republican primaries, will have a much higher mountain to climb then. And it certainly bears a mention that former President Bill Clinton won his second term with only 43% of the popular vote, in yet another polarized election. [link to 2012.republican-candidates.org] |
Lotus Petal
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 842983 United States 04/17/2011 02:33 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Opinions are like assholes .... everyone has one. Here is Peggy Noonan's opinion: Obama Is Likely to Lose [link to online.wsj.com] What if everything we think we know about the president's political position is wrong? That's what I think became clear this week. You know the conventional wisdom. It is that unemployment ticking down, plus the economy inching back, plus the power of the presidency to affect events, equals a likely Obama victory in 2012. Smart people, especially Republicans, believe this. But how about this for a thought: It's not true. It's all wrong. Barack Obama can be taken, and his adversaries haven't even noticed. In fact, he will likely lose in 2012. Only one thing can save him. |
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