Nagorno-Karabakh - Armenia and Azerbaijan heading for another war?

Azeri-Armenia Clashes May Escalate Into War, Research Group Says
By Zulfugar Agayev - Jun 22, 2012 2:09 AM GMT+1200


Clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia that killed at least ten soldiers this month risk escalating into all out war in a region where BP and its partners have invested $35 billion in energy projects, an international research group said.

“There is a weak control of the cease-fire line by Azerbaijan and Armenia and almost no international monitoring,” Sabine Freizer, director of the Europe Program of the International Crisis Group, or ICG, said by phone from Istanbul today. “Large-scale hostilities can break out accidentally, as a result of tit-for-tat responses by the sides.”

Azerbaijan, the third largest oil producer in the former Soviet Union, has invested heavily on its army since the cease fire, weaponry purchase from Israel. President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly said Azerbaijan reserves the right to use military force to regain control of its internationally-recognized territory should peace talks mediated by the U.S., France and Russia fail.

Neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia plan an all-out military offensive in the short term, Freizer said.

“If large-scale hostilities resume, it will be a protracted war as neither side has a huge advantage over the other,” Freizer said. “It is also unclear how Russia and Turkey will respond. They may be drawn in due to security guarantees they have provided.”


[link to www.bloomberg.com]