If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?

Thanks again, for all the great info here.

PANDEMIC throwing down sick beats like this might
be a good indication something is up

[link to www.flutrackers.com]

Some really good-hearted folks here have put up a list of health department links plus are tallying themselves. It's a laborious process for medical nerds like me. It's one more way to get some epidemic surveillance.

It is in Newfoundland and Labrador now.
[link to www.flutrackers.com]

Many links there.

[link to www.cdc.gov]

The CDC has begun doing media advisory reports by streaming audio. This is to facilitate the spread of information about epidemic influenza. Believe me, they don't waste money on projects like this unless there's an issue. Things are very tight in medical budgets especially in government areas. It's not like Defense spending.

It's a red flag.

The World Health Organization (WHO) finally did an influenza update. Here it is:
[link to www.who.int]

It's very buried from the normal practice of influenza surveillance. While the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic flu was hyped by WHO, they got severely criticized and probably lost funding from governments and are being cautious. That's entirely my supposition.

The whole story is that the CDC in the USA severely curtailed reporting of the data, some would even remarked they suppressed data, while simultaneously promoting that the influenza had peaked but ignored data which falsely created that illusion in 2009. It was bad science, but probably reduced overreaction and panic.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/19/2013 12:43 AM

We know influenza is prevalent in British Columbia and elevated now.
[link to www.bccdc.ca]

The European Influenza data can be accessed here:
[link to www.euroflu.org]
"EuroFlu - Weekly Electronic Bulletin - Week 2 : 07/01/2013-13/01/2013 - 18 January 2013, Issue N° 471

Large variation in influenza activity across the WHO European Region



Summary, week 2/2013

Consultation rates for influenza-like illness (ILI) and/or acute respiratory infection (ARI) are now increasing in almost all countries in the Region.
However, influenza activity is still largely limited to the western part of the Region, where widespread transmission is being reported by most countries currently.
While influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and type B viruses are circulating in the Region, the proportion of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 continues to increase, relative to influenza B and A(H3N2), and accounts for 84% of influenza A viruses subtyped.
The number of reported hospitalizations due to severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) is increasing slowly along with a rising proportion of patients testing positive for influenza.

The EuroFlu bulletin describes and comments on influenza activity in the 53 Member States in the WHO European Region to provide information to public health specialists, clinicians and the public on the timing of the influenza season, the spread of influenza, the prevalence and characteristics of circulating viruses (type, subtype and lineage) and severity. "

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/19/2013 12:48 AM

How many people who got the flu hadn't been vaccinated?

Yes they were rather sensible back then.

I can answer that aproximately.

Vaccination according to the CDC has an effective rate of around 62% from getting the specific flu mix (yes it's a mix) that they assume will infect folks in that specific region. It's a coin toss.

However they got the mix WRONG this year. So if everyone got vaccinated by influenza vaccine, it wouldn't protect anyone from the strain which is proving infectious and more dangerous.

The vaccination rate is around 37% of the USA, and is largely driven by induced vaccination. They must get vaccinated as a function of working in their jobs or school. Therefore it's not a personal choice as it has been in history.

Getting vaccinated this year, wouldn't protect you from that specific strain that is so bad. It would protect you with a 62% effective rate (we think) against the specific strains in the mix.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/19/2013 01:04 AM

flutracker.com

Self-isolation is a pragmatic solution. The problem is population density. It's apples and oranges for most Americans. They live in such a density as to make self-isolation very difficult. School closures lead to teenagers going to the mall instead and not stopping the spread of illness.

Because parents work, they bring home illness. It's that simple. There's little chance of self-isolation.

Now the cities with lower incidence rates and lower case-fatalities in the 1918 Pandemic, they closed businesses, schools, houses of worship, public functions, funerals, etc. They did self-isolate successfully, but we're not there yet.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/19/2013 01:09 AM

Sorry, should be flutrackers.com

Just a thought would those hand held steam cleaners help to kill germs in high traffic areas? Door knobs, taps? Just a thought.

Of course it will for the time being. It will cut down on germ levels. If someone gets sick in your household, scrupulously clean AND change their sheets. You want to cut down on the transmission to your family, while caring for them.

Using inexpensive diluted vinegar will really help, but be careful of bleeding the dyes in some fabrics.

Isolation would be impossible in the modern world.

The top places for infection are
- public transport
- doctors rooms/ hospitals
- nursing homes
- schools/crèches
- shopping malls
- mail
- currency

The AC is quite correct. However, if everything shuts down, there are not visitations allowed at those places above. There isn't any transactions of currency. There isn't any mail. Most health care would be at home. Everything stops.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/19/2013 01:20 AM

A seperate strain of H1N1 is in Macedonia. It's infected 300.
[link to www.makfax.com.mk]

We have H3N2 in the USA, and in many places previously reported.

New Jersey has taken an interesting step of creating a Flu Misery Map.
[link to www.njspotlight.com]

This shows the worst areas. It's an intriguing idea. It would of course be always delayed since statistics are delayed in being calculated and tabulated.

Most people wear surgical masks. Those are masks that are meant to be worn for very short term use to block the transmission of germs from the wearer to the patient.

To protect themselves, medical staff will wear N95 masks to reduce the germs being shed by patients in the air. However those don't get tight fits on some people's faces, are meant to be very short term, and then tossed.

Now, people will wear them (both of them)longer and they will quickly be filled with moisture from breath and then air will travel around them and so, contaminate the wearer if a sick person is around.

They help, but only frequently changed and of the proper micron size, do nothing to protect. A virus is extremely small many magnitudses of order smaller than dust or bacteria. See for a brief interactive lesson on pathogen size.
[link to www.cellsalive.com]

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/19/2013 08:58 PM

There are numerous reports of H1N1 flu causing fatalitis in Poland, Jordan, Palestine, India, Sri Lanka, etc.

That's different that the H3N2 flu we have in the USA.

Flu sending many elderly to hospitals, CDC says
[link to www.cidrap.umn.edu]
" Jan 18, 2013 (CIDRAP News) – This year's edition of influenza is hitting the elderly hard, putting many in hospitals, even as overall flu activity is showing signs of slowing down, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today.

"We're in the middle of flu season, about halfway through, and it's shaping up to be worse than average and a bad season particularly for the elderly," CDC Director Thomas Frieden, MD, MPH, said at a noontime media briefing.

"Last week hospitalization rates increased sharply in people 65 and over, and this week they increased sharply again, going up to 82 per 100,000, which is quite a high rate," he said, referring to numbers in the CDC's weekly flu activity update. The cumulative all-ages hospitalization rate is 18.8 per 100,000. "

The Czech Republic is now in the midst of a flu epidemic:
[link to www.ceskenoviny.cz]
...

In the USA
We're at the typical midpoint of a influenza season. There's a drop in hospitializations for that. It might have peaked last week. We don't know if that's going to keep declining, but it's promising. It might be a data abberation due to a delay in tabulation of cases.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/20/2013 10:48 PM

If you live in Pennsylvania, you should be especially careful of the transmission if influenza. There's been a doubling of influenza death rates:
[link to www.portal.state.pa.us]

Austria is getting hammered by influenza:
[link to madonna.oe24.at]

Half of all pediatric visits in Venezuala are influenza now

Google for the article since the source is banned here.

House Approves the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Reauthorization Act of 2013
[link to energycommerce.house.gov]
"WASHINGTON, DC – The U.S. House of Representatives today approved the bipartisan Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Reauthorization Act of 2013, H.R. 307, by a vote of 395 to 29. The legislation, introduced by Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI), reauthorizes provisions of the Project Bioshield Act of 2004 and Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act of 2006 for an additional five years.

H.R. 307 continues to strengthen the nation's preparedness infrastructure and support development of medical countermeasures to better respond to chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear attacks."

Full text of the Bill can be found here:
[link to www.govtrack.us]

And yes, it's scary shit, but it looks like the epidemic peaked last wekk.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/24/2013 07:03 AM

Three items:

Czech Republic continues to see increasing influenza cases:
[link to www.szu.cz]

Closure of schools in Oklamhoma due to influenza:
[link to www.joplinglobe.com]

And most importantly, despite the reassurances of the CDC in the 2009 H1N1 Ifluenza Pandemic, the reality was that 24% of the world population got the flu. We got very lucky.

Because of that underplay of data (outright hiding it at times), you must do routine checks on influenza information. Because panic is always a concern, the powers that be will tend to calm folks down regardless of the seriousness of an epidemic or in this case pandemic.
[link to www.cidrap.umn.edu]

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/25/2013 03:21 AM