Why the North Korean missile launch is different this time and some history of North Korea.

First of all Kim Un isn't going to be nuking anyone with an atomic warhead on any missile, they don't have the ability to do that, regardless of what any "intelligence" agency is speculating about. Even IF they could, which they cannot, I seriously doubt anyone, even the crazyass North Koreans are in the mood for suicide anytime soon, they just aren't that stupid. They also aren't going to EMP'ing anyone or using any other sort of exotic weapons, so you can forget the hyped up bullshit, we all know that kind of crap never happens anyway.

However, there are some details about this likely pending missile launch that do set it apart and in IMO make this time different, and also...dangerous.

It's the nuts and bolts of the situation, so if you'd rather read about some sort of firey glowing doom splosion sucking the atmosphere out...just move on, cause it's not going to be here.

So with that said, the players are:

China: Really the only tenious "friend" that North Korea has left, at least locally. 2nd largest economy on earth. China controls about 70% of the total imports that get into NK, so they have the economic muscle to be listened to by NK if they want to be. At this point China is becoming a bit tired of NK and their overt berserkness, they also however are not above allowing NK to twist the world's and especially the USA's nose a bit out of joint. They also for the most part do not care to be bothered with having to play kindergarten cop to whatever little pipsqueak country is acting up, like the US does. Until it becomes THEIR problem, they mostly couldn't give a shit.

North Korea CAN become their problem very quickly though, they are notorious for having a shitload of poor starving peaseants swarm their long border when the going gets tough, that's a big pain in the ass for them. NK screwing around with nuclear "devices" and various missiles also creates another problem for China, it makes everyone else in the pacific asia region shit their pants...or at least pretend to...and that produces the arms agreement opportunities that they all inevitbly cry out for...either more US presense, or sales of various military hardware to protect themselves from the crazy North Koreans...that of course also makes whatever nation stronger when facing anyone, China included, so that is a downside for them...they do want to be the "Super power" in the region and they do not like or want the US butting our nose in and upsetting the balance.

So China is somewhat tolerant of NK, can exert influence, however at this time it appears their patience is being stretched and they do not have as much pure diplomatic "You're our little buddy" clout as they used to and or most people would care to believe. There could be a more grand plan in play involving them, but I will get to that later.

South Korea: More or less the opposite world twin brother of North Korea. While North Korea is mostly struggling, starving and closed off to the world, South Korea is almost the Exact opposite. Their economy is booming, it's the 15th largest economy on earth. Many large massive industrial corporations are South korean, Daewoo, Hyudai, LG, Samsung and many more...South Korea has well established and good trade relations with the "west", which mostly means the USA, as well as Asia. The USA also maintains a Large troop Military presense in South Korea, about 28,000, most of which are stationed on or near the border with North Korea, along the "DMZ"..de-militarized Zone. There is very much a Love/Hate relationship going on between the North and the South. While they are Korean brothers, NK considers SK as a sellout, rich yes, but they got that way BECAUSE they sold their soul to the Debil more or less. SK looks at NK as the brother who is mostly nuts and has cut off their nose to spite their face.

Japan: 3rd Largest economy on earth. More of a player in this affair than most might realize. The main reason, everyone hates Japan's guts. There is a lot of bad blood going back decades and even centuries. Also well established and good trade relations with the west, as well as most of Asia. Japan is not really "Allowed" to have a real Military...no one has forgotten WWII yet, and more beyond that which I will touch on later. Japan is allowed to have a "Self Defense Force" which they do...after the North Korean missile "test" of 1998, they entered into the American Anti-Ballistic Missile Defense Program, the ABM...they deployed their own AIGES type ship based anti-missile systems and land based Patriot type systems in 2003, both succesfully tested and operational about 5 years later in 2008.

North Korea: There is much more information availible than it's worth regurgitating here, you can easily research more yourselves if you care to. The basics are that North and South Korea were seperated after WWII with America taking control of the South, Russia/communists with China as a lessor player taking control of the North after routing the Japanese who had annexed the entire Korean pensinsula prior to WWII in 1910 and controlled it until 1945. The Americans and Russians attempted to unify Korea directly after Japan's surrender to Aliied forces, however that quickly failed and the "Cold war" ensued and Korea was divided into 2 seperate nations by 1948. In 1950 the North invaded the South and the "Korean War" began with the US supporting the South and mainly the Russians supporting the North with some support coming from China. Hostilities more or less ceased in 1954 and the countries remain seperated to this day with SK being aligned with the USA/west and NK being aligned with the Russian/Chinese communists.

Brief history, rise of the Kims: Kim Il Sung, born 1912, the original "Great leader" and "founder" of North Korea. In his early years his family fled to China (Manchuria) as many Koreans did to flee Japanese occupation in the 1920's. There he joined up with various communist Anti-Japanese groups which he worked his way up through the ranks, participated in various raids and incursions etc etc. Much of his early history is known to be distorted, but generally that is his accepted path toward power. By 1940 Kim had become a major in the Soviet Red Army and in 1945 after the Russians declared war on Japan, the Soviets marched back into Pyongyang, retook North Korea and shortly thereafter installed Kim Il Sung as the leader of the provisional govt.

Through the late 1940's Kim closely aligned himself with Soviet leader Joeseph Stalin, consolidated power, recieved military and financial aid from Russia, until he became prime minister and all communist parties in North Korea merged and are consolidated, Kim begins to be called "Great leader". Kim embarks on a military campaign to unify Korea and a series of captures and re-captures of Seoul, pyongyang go back and forth involving US/UN forces and the North Korean forces. In 1950 the Chinese enter the conflict as allies of the Korean Peoples Army. Kim resents this, the Chinese are also reluctant to enter and this is the "Official" start of the Korean War. By 1954 the conflict is fought to more or less a stalemate and the North South Border is established. Kim remains the leader of the North, so he considers the Korean war a Victory for his side.

In the following decades Kim and North Korea have sometimes strained, sometimes cordial relations with both Communist Russia and China. Kim rejects the Cultural revolution which happened under Mao in China. Russia accuses Kim of establishing a "Cult of personalty" type regime ala Stalin, Russia underwent De-Stalinization in the mid 1950's which put him at odds with the USSR, when China under their cultural revolution, he was at odds with China. Kim attempted to keep good relations with one, while he would be at odds with the other. During the 1950's Kim embarked on a series of "Purges" killing off the last remainder of any political opposition and further expanding the massive "Cult of personality".

Eventually after difficult relations with both communist powers, Kim sided with the soviet Union and denounced the cultural revolution in the 1960's, which pissed off Mao who then embarked on producing anti-Kim propoganda and pursued efforts to normalize relations with the USA. Kim however was reluctant to become just another soviet puppet state and adopted the concept of "Juche" or self reliance. During the late 1960's and 1970's North Korea's economy struggled and more or less failed to thrive under this policy. China having it's own economic struggles in the 1970's and enacting it own economic reforms further stifflied trade between those 2 countries. The collapse of the Soviet Union in the late 1980's and early 1990's pretty much completed North Korea's economic and cultural isolation from the world.

By this time Kim's health was failing and in the early 1990's he named his Son Kim Jong Il as succesor and began transferring active leadership, Kim dies in 1994 and Kim Jong Il formally takes over North Korea as "Dear leader".

It takes a few years for Kim Jong Il to formally cement his positon of power, which he does. During the 1990's North Korea embarks on a program of "Military first" Under KJI. During the 1990's North Korea suffers a series of massive floods, massive food shortages and malnutrition and must rely on food support from other nations, some due to those floods, some due to poor land managment and lack of usable farmlands. By the early 2,000's North Korea struggles to produce barely a small growth in their economy. By this time they begin to adopt some very small avenues of trade by establishing some minor and limited free trade policies. One result of which is the Kaesong Industrial park which mainly employs South Korean manufacturing knowledge and North Korean labor.

In 2011 Kin Jong Il died and was succeeded by his youngest son, Kim Jong un, who is the supreme leader of the NK today. He had a tenious rise to power as the youngest son of Kim Jong Il while older siblings appeared to fall out of grace. The eldest son being "caught" attempting to enter Japan on a false passport for a visit to "Disneyland". Another older sibling was deemed "too feminine" by the father to succeed...so whatever that means...

Until 2010 Kim Jong Un was virtually unseen, much less unkown, no photos, no public appearances. There is no official biography for Kim un that has ever been published. It it assumed that he went to school and possibly grew up in Switzerland, but that information comes only from reports of others. The date of his birth is not even fully confirmed and is listed as either 1983 or 1984.

North Korea's economy is currently ranked around 125th on earth and is less than half the total economy of the smallest single state in the USA's economy, (Vermont). Sporting a total GDP of about 12 billion. This makes it one the poorest nations on earth and one of the poorest in the region, by far, Vietnam has 10x the GDP of NK.

That's enough of the history of North Korea in a nutshell...as much as that read was, of course it's far more expansive and has far greater details. Hopefully that will give everyone enough foundation to understand them better.

The relationships of the players, also in a nutshell:
So here you have it, China is not as great a pal to North Korea as most would believe, or as most would have us believe. China has a general feeling of being the "Heir apparent" to power throughout the entire area due to their bringing Confucianism and enlightenment to the region. They view Japan and South Korea as "uppity" among other countries, they view North Korea as being a pain in the ass, one that also told them to fuck off and sided with the Soviets when they had the chance to side with them. By virtue of being attached to China along a long border, China tolerates them and their behavior more than it condones or encourages it. China also does not appreciate having to "Ask" North korea anything, because as I stated before, they feel they should just be listened to by defualt.

China and North korea do have one thing very much in common though...they HATE Japan's guts...in the late 19th century Japan's economy took off due to trade with the west...Japan considered China a primative backward nation...during the time when the Empire of Japan expanded in the early to mid 20th century and through WWII...Japan literally Slaughtered millions of Chinese and Koreans, among others. There were countless war crimes and the most horrific atrocoties committed by the Imperial Japanese, ones which till this day they want to forget and in fact still attempt to re-write history to either exclude or play down.

There are still very sensitive issues there which to this day continue to arise, disputes over some small islands, access to ancient sites, things of that nature and that bit of history is still very much a sore point to the Chinese.

So while the North Koreans may be a pain in the ass to China, as long as they are bigger pain in the ass and threat to Japan?...China is happy enough to tolerate them to a greater extent than they might under other circumstances.

This however also becomes problematic for China in the sense that Japan is closely aligned with the US, and so is South Korea. China does not care for the USA having as much influence, military hardware and presense throughout their "Home turf"...which always increases everytime North Korea does it's rabid dog let's scare everyone routine. China however has to walk a fine line, China needs the USA, Japan and South Korea as trading partners and as much as those relationships can seem contentious at times?...we are all more or less stuck in a "we need them as much as they need us" situation. It's like an import/export game of musical chairs...and no one country wants that music to stop, because none of us are really sure that our country is not going to the one left screwed without a chair.

So basically what we have is the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 15th largest economies on the globe all dancing around the economic table, some sort of friends, a couple hate each others guts and no one really trusting each other all that much either. Some have guns on em, couple have knives and we're all eyeballing each other, smiling on the outside, but no one dares takes their eyes off of anyone else...all with each others fate in each others hands to a substantial degree...like it or not....

...and then you have poor #125 economy batshit crazy neighbor kid who has almost nothing to lose execpt their life...running around among all of us doing epic retarded dangerous shit, popping paper bags behind that ones head, pointing guns, maybe fake, but who knows, running with scissors, he keeps making bigger and better pointy sticks and keeps trying to stab everyone with em and generally being an accident looking for a place to happen..and he's getting worse and worse....

It's kinda funny when that kid pops the guy you hate in the head with a rock...but you know this is going to end badly and someone could very well get shot, unless someone calms that douchebaggety kid down...one way or the other...

You don't really want to do it, but you don't really want one of the other guys playing hero while you sit there on your hands and look like a wuss to everyone else either...giving the kid a sammich chills him out sometimes, but it's only temporary...and lately he's just been eating the sammich and acting more and more like a DICK anyway...soooo...who's going to make or lead the move?...

Now he's got yet another impliment of destruction that he's cobbled together...and he's getting ready to come running screaming with it, flailing widly. Is this going to be the time when someone says, "Enough!" and knocks his fool ass out?...is he going to stop at the last minute and yell HAHA! PSYCH!!! and Laugh at everyone for getting scared?...who the fuck knows, the kid is totally unpredictable...

That's about where we are at with bratty dangerous "Kid" North Korea.

So why is this time different, why is it more dangerous and why should we care?...

For several reasons...

First of all Kim Jong Un is the young, inexperienced and brand new fresh "Supreme leader" of the DPRK. All he really has as any qualifications to be the Supreme leader is his bloodline. In the past, that has required killing of opponants and various internal power struggles to cement into place as the one who is all powerful. It also has in the past required giving a big fuck you to any outside interlopers and pretty much telling everyone, even China, that you are your own man/country and don't need or want any "help" or any interference either. Now, you accept some, because if you didn't all your people would starve and more likely than not would revolt, but that is just minor bump on the road on your path to greatness. So that is a big factor, Kim has to prove himself...

He also has to be careful that he does not overplay his hand, or that his lack of experience is used against him to create a situation where he does overplay his hand. That he listens to the wrong people, get's duped into having his face slapped hard and is then deemed a failure..in which case?...opposition forces, such as the elder brother could very well be asked to step in and take over.

That prove yourself without going too far is a major factor this time around, far more so than it was for Kim Jong Il who was much older and had much more govt experience when he took over, even then, it still took a few years for him to cement himself into complete control. It makes Kim Un far less likely to be backed down IMO.

Secondly, the type of missile that is currently in question and where the launch site is.

That being the east coast of North Korea, specifically Wonsan in the Kangwon Province. If you look at a map, you can easily see that this area is penned in...by Japan. There really isn't any other way out. They could shoot over themselves, but the flight path would more likely than not be right over PyongYong, too dangerous. This particular Missile also has around a 2,500 mile range. Even if they fired it at the longest path possible without going over Japan?...the longest shot they could achieve is maybe 800 miles, not a very good "test" for a 2,500 mile range missile. Any other flight path goes over other undesirable locations, such as Seoul South korea. They also have fired missiles over Japan in the past, however this time it is different. Japan has it's new AGEIS anti-missile and Patriot batteries tested, deployed and ready...the last time NK fired a missile over Japan it was only mere months after they had tested the system and had them deployed...now they have been ready to go, tested and trained operators, for years.

This type of missile, the "Musodan" type is a brand new system for North Korea. It's mostly a Russian re-tread as several of their missiles are, but it is indeed of their own design. It's also so new, that as far as anyone knows, it's never been tested before, certainly never flight tested as in fired off, ever. It's so new, that it was never even seen before a 2010 military parade, where several "experts" speculated that the actual missiles on parade were fake, mockups meant to be non-functional copies of the actual missiles, it's that new.

So, we have a brand new untested kid leader with a brand new untested 20 ton ballistic missile system that's parked on their east coast with no logical way out that doesn't go directly over Japan.

You can see why they, and us, are pretty upset and nervous about this one.

There are a lot of things that could go wrong, guided missile systems of this size are a massive technological acheivment to get right...which North korea has not a stellar track record of "Getting right" all the time, as well everyone should know.

That is only the "Accident" aspect of this whole scenerio, the likelyhood that this missile might actually be shot down this time is higher than any other time before due to the factors I have stated above. The Japanese anti-missiles are ready, the missile is untested and dangerous due to that fact alone, and the world in general is pretty much fed up with North Korea launching their crappy potentially dangerous missiles all over the place.

So what might actually happen?...there a several scenerios.

One and the best outcome: Kim never fires his missile, maybe it IS fake, that cannot be discounted, but forever reason he packs it up and takes it home. Tells the world it was some sort of "operational test", not a flight test, and STFU or we will keel all yankee dogs in firey fury of blah blah blah...maybe he succumbs to international pressures, but chances are we'd never hear about that. He'd just claim victory as usual and take his missile home. That isn't likely to happen IMO because as far we know the missile appears to be fueled, that would mean it's not fake, if that is true, and if they do not fire it?...the missile would likely be damaged due the corrosive nature of it's fuel. They would also scrap the fuel itself and history shows that once they setup?..they always fire...

Two, the next best outcome IMO: Kim fires his missile and no one does shit about it. We and Japan watch it go over, the launch is a success enough that it doesn't rain down shitty NK missile on anyone or anything and that's that, it spashes into the ocean. Everyone on earth sings the blues afterwards, there are more sanctions, more pressure put on whoever could pressure Kim and that is mostly the end of it. Now...you would think this would be a pretty bad outcome, and really it would be, because the USA and all our allies would look like a bunch of paper tiger limp dicks, which we would, but every other possible scenerio is actually worse IMO.

Three, Kim fires, something goes wrong and someone gets hurt:Believe it or not this may be the third best outcome, because it could and likely would be seen as an accident. This puts the blame and the finger of fuckup squarely on Kim and NK. While there would be action to whatever degree taken after this, it's more likely than not going to be actions that do not lead to war, not immediately anyway. It's hard to estimate what level of actions would be taken, but the chances are good that there wouldn't be any shooting on a large scale immediately after. It's possible that we would immediately take out any other missiles that are prepared to fire, but that has as much chance of not happening as it does. It's more likely that the world would hold it's breath, Kim would not shoot any others directly after the failed launch, we'd be in an immediate re-act stance, but it's be a mad scramble to "get him on phone" and that sort of thing, not a direct and or immediate military response. If did take immediate military action?...then NK would no doubt consider that an act of war, where it goes from there?...

Four, Kim fires, we/Japan shoot it down: We have the ability to do this, that is not in dispute. If we shot the missile down?...we enter the world of batshit wildcards...no one...NO ONE really knows what would happen then.

Certainly North Korea would consider that an act of war, no matter what anyone said. Kim very well could un-leash his artillery batteries on South Korea, once that happens?...we are immediately at war, full blown shooting war with North Korea and many tens of thousands of people get dead.North Korea does have the ability to inflict serious damage and loss of life upon South Korea, this is well known as fact. It's also well known as fact that nothing on earth can stop it, not us with all our awesome military might and tech, or anyone or anything else.

It's also suicide for the Kim regime, but they know that, they also do not have a lot to lose at that point and they also know that. They are also not known for being humnitarians and having compassion etc etc...they are far more well known for being a completely militarized society that has little else, that would be taken away, so they have nothing else to lose at that point...the proverbial cornered rat...

Once that happened if it did?..there is knowing what could happen as far as everything spiraling out of control, China becoming involved, Russia becoming involved and while I don't believe it would lead to an Armeggedeon world crushing war between super powers?...it no doubt would disrupt the world on a scale that none of us have experienced, crashed economies, global chaos and basically just a few ticks away from the absolute worst things you could think of.

or, nothing happens, Kim licks his wounds and issues the usual batshit crazy almost threats and rhetoric...at that point?, the chances of THAT happening are slim enough to be very worrisome. Kim Un could likely be overthrown by whoever the next in line is, that also could involve who knows what, a coup, an overthrow or any other level of instability, in a country that has virtually zero relations with the outside world and has atomic devices/weapons and a whole shitload of military gear and personel all pointed outward and is currently dangerous already. When a country like North Korea is in the throws of a regime collapse?....things become even more dagerous. Neither of those outcomes are good for anyone, us included, one is just far worse than the other....

IMO Kim is going to fire his missile...I don't believe we will shoot it down because we are well aware that the chances of it sparking a real shooting war are far too high to risk. We will officially pitch a bitch and increase the pressure and continue along that route. We will use the launch as an excuse to deploy and sell more hardware, which China will not be too pleased about, but eh, you had your chance to talk Kim down and failed, or that's what we will put out there anyway.

Let's just hope that nothing else happens, or goes wrong.

If we get REAL lucky?...Kim takes his missile, fake or not, and scampers on home with it...but I don't see the chances of that happening as very good...less than 50/50...

For those of you that think we just ought to "git in there and whoop his ass if he pulls any shit!"

Be careful what you wish for...

Hopefully that was the worth the long read for those who took the time to read it all and at least some people came away with some understanding or insight into this that they didn't have before...that's what it's all about ey?...:)


BTW,,,right around 6-9PM Eastern time is historically when NK prefers to shoot off it's missiles...

Keep watching and lets hope for the best!

Last Edited by SHR on 04/12/2013 06:04 PM