Earth Under Attack! CME arrives ahead of schedule amidst radiation storm! Tomata plants in! | |
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Hugh M Eye
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 43080811 United States 10/01/2013 11:20 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | WHAT TIME IS THE CME GONNA HIT? IN EASTERN OR PACIFIC TIME???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 47739901 Brazil 10/01/2013 11:21 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | WHAT TIME IS THE CME GONNA HIT? IN EASTERN OR PACIFIC TIME???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? dont know the time but nothing will happen. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 47743490 United States 10/01/2013 11:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | WHAT TIME IS THE CME GONNA HIT? IN EASTERN OR PACIFIC TIME???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? can we just focus on that one chic posting here. thanks |
goldielucks
User ID: 45699824 United States 10/01/2013 11:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This is pretty legit, we went from K2 TO K5 in less than ten minutes on solar storm impact, that's rare, at least for this cycle. Check out the pocket of early plasma that hit us. [link to www.n3kl.org] Look at the mag spike and the electron spike, that's a big , quick hit. These guys are different than Flare induced CMEs, we may see irregular spikes for days as this big momma comes in. I'd listen to HUGH he knows his shit! pin request please! :) |
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Hugh M Eye
(OP) User ID: 39479530 United States 10/01/2013 11:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hugh ive been watching the KP for the past few hours and the chart im watching is still sleepy.. Quoting: AnonCh4rl1 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] It'll be here soon, maybe your being premature? in another note, small flare starting to show on soho and stereo, but no xray data that i can see, another lift-off? The arrival may be premature, but I'm not, haha. NOAA Issued a K=5 Threshold Reached Alert @ 2:00 UTC (a little over an hour ago): Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05 Serial Number: 729 Issue Time: 2013 Oct 02 0203 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2013 Oct 02 0200 UTC Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] NASA Goddard's CME prediction forecasts a "disturbance Duration' of 27 hours! Event Issue Date: 2013-09-29 23:06:23.0 GMT CME Arrival Time: 2013-10-02 14:39:33.0 GMT Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours Disturbance Duration: 27 hours Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.4 Re |
NOLAangel
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#Geomagnetic_Storm#
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Hugh M Eye
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AnonCh4rl1
User ID: 47446969 United Kingdom 10/01/2013 11:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hugh ive been watching the KP for the past few hours and the chart im watching is still sleepy.. Quoting: AnonCh4rl1 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] It'll be here soon, maybe your being premature? in another note, small flare starting to show on soho and stereo, but no xray data that i can see, another lift-off? The arrival may be premature, but I'm not, haha. NOAA Issued a K=5 Threshold Reached Alert @ 2:00 UTC (a little over an hour ago): Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05 Serial Number: 729 Issue Time: 2013 Oct 02 0203 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2013 Oct 02 0200 UTC Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] NASA Goddard's CME prediction forecasts a "disturbance Duration' of 27 hours! Event Issue Date: 2013-09-29 23:06:23.0 GMT CME Arrival Time: 2013-10-02 14:39:33.0 GMT Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours Disturbance Duration: 27 hours Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.4 Re my bad your right, do cmes normally taper up on the kp index or do they start strong n fade down, kp of 5 is pretty nice already, i dunno weather to turn my sensitive electronics off for a few hours. |
shadasonic
User ID: 41520215 United States 10/01/2013 11:30 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hugh ive been watching the KP for the past few hours and the chart im watching is still sleepy.. Quoting: AnonCh4rl1 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] It'll be here soon, maybe your being premature? in another note, small flare starting to show on soho and stereo, but no xray data that i can see, another lift-off? The arrival may be premature, but I'm not, haha. NOAA Issued a K=5 Threshold Reached Alert @ 2:00 UTC (a little over an hour ago): Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05 Serial Number: 729 Issue Time: 2013 Oct 02 0203 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2013 Oct 02 0200 UTC Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] NASA Goddard's CME prediction forecasts a "disturbance Duration' of 27 hours! Event Issue Date: 2013-09-29 23:06:23.0 GMT CME Arrival Time: 2013-10-02 14:39:33.0 GMT Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours Disturbance Duration: 27 hours Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.4 Re [link to mms.rice.edu] Heres the BI, it shows it hitting above 250, that's a large spike , usually anything over 160 for a duration is K6 or higher, but this was an early hit and short in duration, still easily pushed us above K5 for a time. The Boyle Index (BI), [Boyle et. al., J. Geophys. Res., 102, 111, 1997] where v is the solar wind velocity in km/sec and B is the magnitude of the IMF, is a good predictor of the Polar Cap Potential drop for times when the solar wind is steady and the index is 160 kV or less. For the rare events where the Boyle index exceeds 160 kV, the polar cap potential generally saturates, only exceeding 200 kV in rare occasions, thus in those cases the Boyle Index is an overestimate of the Polar Cap Potential. A Boyle index of 200 averaged over three hours will often yield a Kp index of 6 or higher; for 250 or more, the Kp index is often 7 or higher. This spiked above 260 Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 10/01/2013 11:33 PM “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
AnonCh4rl1
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shadasonic
User ID: 41520215 United States 10/01/2013 11:34 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Mag below 50 we got a party going on. “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
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shadasonic
User ID: 41520215 United States 10/01/2013 11:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to www.n3kl.org] K5 “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
AnonCh4rl1
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Liquid_Pestilence
User ID: 26997671 United States 10/01/2013 11:39 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This is pretty legit, we went from K2 TO K5 in less than ten minutes on solar storm impact, that's rare, at least for this cycle. Check out the pocket of early plasma that hit us. [link to www.n3kl.org] Look at the mag spike and the electron spike, that's a big , quick hit. These guys are different than Flare induced CMEs, we may see irregular spikes for days as this big momma comes in. I'd listen to HUGH he knows his shit! I agree, this is a decent hit people in the north should go outside and look for auroras tonight. this really should be pinned "Fear paints pictures of ghosts and hangs them in the gallery of ignorance." Robert Green Ingersoll |
goldielucks
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Gypsy Priest
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Hugh M Eye
(OP) User ID: 39479530 United States 10/01/2013 11:49 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thank you, NOLAangel! This may fluctuate in the magnetic field for the next 24 hours and sometimes the worst of the effects are bringing up the rear as the CME plasma passes by Earth. I'll try to keep an eye on the situation give updates. Also, always check at NINzrez' thread SOLAR WATCH as we have a team of volunteers updating solar and space events on a daily basis . Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) (Page 2099) |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 15886212 Canada 10/01/2013 11:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | A Large and energetic Coronal Mass Ejection left the Sun on Sept. 30th and it seems to have arrived in a BIG WAY ahead of schedule. (It was forecast to arrive tomorrow at 10 am EDT). This means its velocity and, hence, dynamic pressure, is greater than thought. Quoting: Hugh M Eye Ten minutes after NOAA issued its sudden impulse warning the K-index leapt from K=2 to K=5 (Geomagnetic Storm Level) Check out this Realtime Bow-shock model of the magnetosphere: [link to pixie.spasci.com] Look at the Boulder Magnetometer reading now: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] NOAA Alerts and Warnings: Space Weather Message Code: WATA30 Serial Number: 108 Issue Time: 2013 Oct 01 1330 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Oct 02: G1 (Minor) Oct 03: G2 (Moderate) Oct 04: None (Below G1) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] [link to www.solarham.net] |
NiNzrez
User ID: 43003237 United States 10/01/2013 11:54 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | way to be on the ball with this one Hugh! 5* Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |