3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2015 Jun 22 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 22-Jun 24 2015 is 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 22-Jun 24 2015
Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun 24
00-03UT 1 6 (G2) 4
03-06UT 3 6 (G2) 4
06-09UT 4 5 (G1) 3
09-12UT 3 4 2
12-15UT 6 (G2) 4 2
15-18UT 7 (G3) 4 2
18-21UT 7 (G3) 3 2
21-00UT 6 (G2) 3 3
Rationale: G2 (Moderate)-G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms are likely on
days one-two (22-23 Jun) due to the arrival of a full-halo CME from 21
Jun. 24 Jun should see a return to active conditions as CME effects
wane.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 22-Jun 24 2015
Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun 24
S1 or greater 99% 99% 95%
Rationale: S2 (Moderate) radiation storms are expected for days
one-three (22-24 Jun) as a result of activity from Regions 2371 and
2367.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 21 2015 1820 UTC
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 22-Jun 24 2015
Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun 24
R1-R2 75% 75% 75%
R3 or greater 20% 20% 20%
Rationale: R1 (Minor) radio blackouts are likely with a slight chance
for R3 (Strong) or greater.
[
link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
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