2015 Hawaii Hurricane Season Thread: Cat 2 JIMENA going to slam the islands?!?!! Update bottom page 9

120 knots!! (138 mph)!!!

CAT 5 next?!?!!! Anyone? Anyone?

Another source showing a CAT 4 currently!! Looks like it'll stay a Cat 4 for a couple days at least!


[link to www.tropicalstormrisk.com]

Last Edited by Aloha Nui Loa on 08/08/2015 04:50 PM

140mph Cat 4!!!!!

16 more mph and it will make Cat 5!

[link to www.wunderground.com]

CRAZY!!! It wouldn't surprise me at this point!! YIKES!!

That's a pretty "fat" cone they have on days 4-5!! They don't look too sure of anything there!

[link to www.prh.noaa.gov]

From NOAA/CPHC:

[snip]

"MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HILDA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY."

(Highlights are mine)

check out wunderground's computer models - each one taking a radically different course - they don't have a clue!

BTW - she's terrifyingly beautiful!

[link to www.wunderground.com]

Yeah I've been rather obsessively looking at many different sites for their updated models--everything from a direct hit on the BI then going south, to headed straight North!! Cray cray!

And yes, "terrifyingly beautiful" is a good way to put it. Also, most of the forecasts show a TS before too close to BI. I wonder if it will weaken that much, that rapidly. Guillermo only strengtheNed to a Cat 2--maybe that's why it fell apart so drastically and rapidly? Who the hell knows...just speculating here!

Do you think they're downplaying Hilda? Will have to watch the news tonight!

Thanks for the link! Here's another:

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com]
[link to derecho.math.uwm.edu]

Also, saw this thread earlier:

Thread: Hilda will make landfall

Wonder what they "knew." ......

Yes she is!!
[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]


Let's hope that "rapid weakening" forecast for 48h out is spot on.
Wonder if we'll see cat5 by 5pm?

Last Edited by Westsail on 08/08/2015 05:40 PM

Check out the wording in this article

[link to www.staradvertiser.com]

they don't know!

of course they never really do but most times they at least pretend to have confidence

seems as if the OP vanished

definitely not a troll thread

I know...is there reason to worry about that "info" in your opinion? I wish they'd come over here to discuss!

Yep, that was horribly written with many contradictions! Why do the have "powerful" in quotes like that in the first sentence? Isn't a Cat 4 powerful?!? Downplaying??

[Snip]

"Hurricane Hilda intensified into what forecasters described as a "powerful" category 4 storm with sustained winds of 140 mph on a path that could take it near or over Hawaii.

However the storm is expected to weaken to a tropical storm as it nears the islands Wednesday or Thursday.

The five-day forecast, which has a large margin of error, suggests the storm could hit the Big Island and Maui if it takes a more southerly track."

"

Nobody I spoke with today was even aware of Hilda 0_o

Waiting on the next update...

Weakened slightly - 135mph - still a cat 4

The cause of the recent slight degradation in satellite imagery is
uncertain...but may be due to an eyewall replacement cycle. Although
the current forecast keeps Hilda steady-state overnight...there is
still a chance Hilda could restrengthen as the hurricane remains
over warm sea surface temperatures near 28c...and weak shear as it
approaches an upper level ridge axis roughly along latitude 16n.

[link to www.wunderground.com]

To follow.

Just watched HNN and it seems like they're much more uncertain of Hildas path than Guillermo or even Iselle last year. A strong El Nino plays a big part I guess-- Guy Hagi talked about later in the hurricane season there stiLloyd being higher than normal sea surface femps, but less wind shear. Basically it sounds like it's going to potentially get worse before it gets better!

Well that's not very comforting!

Hilda is apparently a rare annular hurricane - they can be stronger and take longer to weaken (so says the weather guy)

[link to www.kitv.com]

The intensity of annular systems is typically greater than 83.5% of the maximum potential intensity, suggesting that the conditions in which storms gain annular characteristics are generally conducive for tropical cyclone persistence.

[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

Still cat 3 - track now has it making landfall on the Big Island as a tropical depression.

Computer models are still widely varied with 3 showing a southern route.

[link to www.prh.noaa.gov]

That's a pretty big "cone of uncertainty". lol

Reminds me of the old joke about the weather man who gives a 50% chance of rain..

Just looking at it's previous motion, sure looks more likely a southern track.


I'm thinking tomato plants 'in'.

Last Edited by Westsail on 08/09/2015 04:13 PM

I agree with southerly track-- below BI? Are you thinking it could strengthen south of the islands and pull an "Iniki"? Look at latest models here--all over the place even 24 hour out!!
[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com]



Do they even have a CLUE what this thing's gonna do? Even Iselle and most recently Guillermo didn't seem to have this much uncertainty.

T-minus 36 min and counting for 11am crazy update!

Let's hope not! That AEMI model is kinda a trip.

Thanks for posting those! That really shows the forecasting might be more art than science and maybe borders on wizardry. lol

I don't think it can restrengthen, can it? More just a matter of how quickly it weakens. The forecasters say only a TD at landfall regardless. But, I would think a track south of BI would tend to have greater impact.

One to keep an eye on for sure!

Edit to add:
We'll just have to hope their intensity models are more accurate than their guidance models! lol

Last Edited by Westsail on 08/09/2015 04:43 PM