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Polls Are Bullshit: Iowa Can Surprise Everyone

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 67588110
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01/27/2016 08:51 PM
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Polls Are Bullshit: Iowa Can Surprise Everyone
First let me start with polls are bs- In 2012 Iowa caucus they were dead off, and in the 2014 elections they were nearly worse than off. Everyone is thinking about the polls, looking at the polls but people are ignoring candidates who will surprise a LOT of people. First of all, Cruz isn't going far in Iowa. He has a lot of conservatives with histories in Iowa. Huckabee and Santorum both conservatives who have won the Iowa caucus before but polls give them less than one or two percent. I don't buy it. No they won't win, but will definitely take votes away from Cruz and will probably finish much better than expected. Rubio is drawing huge crowds in Iowa and I dislike him but it's ridiculous to rule him out of the race because of weak polls. Also Rand Paul- People in Iowa LOVED his father and know his name- new poll said that 84% of millennials will vote in the Iowa caucus- should bump up Paul- hell I won't even be surprised if he gets in the top 3. I'm ready for a surprise in Iowa- hell I expect it.
Cigarette_Smoking_Man​

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01/27/2016 08:53 PM
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Re: Polls Are Bullshit: Iowa Can Surprise Everyone
I bet Trump gets 40%. Rubio comes in 2nd at 25%, Cruz 23%, Rand Paul 10%, the rest in single digits.

Rubio has transformed himself back into a Tea Party candidate, after spending the past few years in the Senate voting like a RINO. I give him credit, he's a masterful liar. We'll see how stupid the voters of Iowa really are.
"Only a man suffering from a severe case of dignity atrophy would even entertain the thought of financing, housing, and raising some other man's orgasm."
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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01/27/2016 08:55 PM
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Re: Polls Are Bullshit: Iowa Can Surprise Everyone
I bet Trump gets 40%. Rubio comes in 2nd at 25%, Cruz 23%, Rand Paul 10%, the rest in single digits.

Rubio has transformed himself back into a Tea Party candidate, after spending the past few years in the Senate voting like a RINO. I give him credit, he's a masterful liar. We'll see how stupid the voters of Iowa really are.
 Quoting: Cigarette_Smoking_Man


I've heard people say he's the Hillary equivalent of the republican party. I think he can win (Unlikely)- hell I hope not, but really not a lot of talk and beef about him and could dominate the debate because he's a master bullshitter...
Exiled Wolf

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01/27/2016 09:01 PM
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Re: Polls Are Bullshit: Iowa Can Surprise Everyone
Rand Paul has 1000 precinct captains.
Proles and animals are free.
Shiva ascendant

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01/27/2016 09:03 PM
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Re: Polls Are Bullshit: Iowa Can Surprise Everyone
Polls are certainly no guarantee, nobody in the media saw the republican takeover of congress in '94 coming either but the look on Bernard Shaws face as the returns came in was priceless. tounge You' d have thought he was being forced to watch his mother being gangbanged. 1rof1
This is the way the world ends.
This is the way the world ends.
This is the way the world ends.
Not with a bang but with a whimper.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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01/27/2016 09:04 PM
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Re: Polls Are Bullshit: Iowa Can Surprise Everyone
Rand Paul has 1000 precinct captains.
 Quoting: Exiled Wolf


Can you elaborate on that statement?
Larry D. Croc

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01/27/2016 09:04 PM

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Re: Polls Are Bullshit: Iowa Can Surprise Everyone
Iowa voters, about 40% of them, generally make up their minds during the weekend immediately preceding the caucus gatherings. I'm of the opinion that it's still "anything can happen time" regardless of what any of today's polls show.

Not taking sides, just reflecting on how they decide things in Iowa.
"Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don't need it and hell, where they already have it." Ronald Reagan

The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so." Ronald Reagan
Exiled Wolf

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01/27/2016 09:05 PM
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Re: Polls Are Bullshit: Iowa Can Surprise Everyone
Rand Paul has 1000 precinct captains.
 Quoting: Exiled Wolf


Can you elaborate on that statement?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 67588110


[link to www.washingtonpost.com (secure)]
Proles and animals are free.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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01/27/2016 09:08 PM
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Re: Polls Are Bullshit: Iowa Can Surprise Everyone
Polls are certainly no guarantee, nobody in the media saw the republican takeover of congress in '94 coming either but the look on Bernard Shaws face as the returns came in was priceless. tounge You' d have thought he was being forced to watch his mother being gangbanged. 1rof1
 Quoting: Shiva ascendant


Yep, and they are undoubtedly manipulated.
My predictions
Trump- 30%
Cruz- 23%
Rubio- 21%
Paul- 10%
Carson- 5%
Huckabee- 4%
Bush- 2%
Santorum- 2%
Kasich- 1%
Christie- 1%
Fiorina- 1%
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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01/27/2016 09:10 PM
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Re: Polls Are Bullshit: Iowa Can Surprise Everyone
Iowa voters, about 40% of them, generally make up their minds during the weekend immediately preceding the caucus gatherings. I'm of the opinion that it's still "anything can happen time" regardless of what any of today's polls show.

Not taking sides, just reflecting on how they decide things in Iowa.
 Quoting: Larry D. Croc


That's my point. People are taking polls too literally. Hell, It's a stretch but I think Rubio and Paul could shock the world and finish in top 2 (Trump is killing the rallies- and polls may be underestimating him, I doubt he finishes out of top 2)
Shiva ascendant

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01/27/2016 09:13 PM
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Re: Polls Are Bullshit: Iowa Can Surprise Everyone
Polls are certainly no guarantee, nobody in the media saw the republican takeover of congress in '94 coming either but the look on Bernard Shaws face as the returns came in was priceless. tounge You' d have thought he was being forced to watch his mother being gangbanged. 1rof1
 Quoting: Shiva ascendant


Yep, and they are undoubtedly manipulated.
My predictions
Trump- 30%
Cruz- 23%
Rubio- 21%
Paul- 10%
Carson- 5%
Huckabee- 4%
Bush- 2%
Santorum- 2%
Kasich- 1%
Christie- 1%
Fiorina- 1%
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 67588110


Absolutely, more often than not the pollsters skew the questions to produce results that the people paying for the poll want to see. Each party has their favored pollsters who are their 'go to guys' when they want to sway public opinion.
This is the way the world ends.
This is the way the world ends.
This is the way the world ends.
Not with a bang but with a whimper.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 23669331
United States
01/27/2016 09:13 PM
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Re: Polls Are Bullshit: Iowa Can Surprise Everyone
Im from Iowa and will be voting Paul. Ron won majority of delegates in 2012, keeping fingers crossed for an upset
Exiled Wolf

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01/27/2016 09:15 PM
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Re: Polls Are Bullshit: Iowa Can Surprise Everyone
Im from Iowa and will be voting Paul. Ron won majority of delegates in 2012, keeping fingers crossed for an upset
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23669331


clappa
Proles and animals are free.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 67588110
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01/27/2016 09:16 PM
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Re: Polls Are Bullshit: Iowa Can Surprise Everyone
Im from Iowa and will be voting Paul. Ron won majority of delegates in 2012, keeping fingers crossed for an upset
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23669331


How is it like there? Who do people there think will win?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 22278902
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01/27/2016 09:24 PM
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Re: Polls Are Bullshit: Iowa Can Surprise Everyone
Im from Iowa and will be voting Paul. Ron won majority of delegates in 2012, keeping fingers crossed for an upset
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23669331


How is it like there? Who do people there think will win?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 67588110


Lots of Paul supporters where Im from but there are alot of establishment Republicans as well. it will be interesting to see whether the media and polls still have the influence they once had
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 67588110
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01/27/2016 09:28 PM
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Re: Polls Are Bullshit: Iowa Can Surprise Everyone
Im from Iowa and will be voting Paul. Ron won majority of delegates in 2012, keeping fingers crossed for an upset
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23669331


How is it like there? Who do people there think will win?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 67588110


Lots of Paul supporters where Im from but there are alot of establishment Republicans as well. it will be interesting to see whether the media and polls still have the influence they once had
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 22278902


Hopefully voters don't lose hope. I'd go out and vote for my candidate if there was a hurricane outside.





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