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Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.

 
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2017 11:58 AM
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Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
OK GLP....

The capacity of the reservoir is 3.5 million acre feet.

They are saying that they will use the first spillway to bring it down 1.2 million acre feet before Wed's rain. That drains 1/3 of the water.

Now, first question.....how many acre feet ends up in that dam after say one big storm? Can you get more than 1.2 mill af in a day or two?

I read that right now the snowmelt is going to be about 2.5 million af. Any comments? Is that figure low?

As long as the first spillway can handle water and not erode backwards towards the dam, then with a discharge rate of up to 1.2 mill af in a few days, can they keep the water from coming over the emergency (oops, auxillary, lets be PC) spillway?

I am looking just for math figures here, not speculation on if the rock under the first spillway will erode back not, or if the hillside next to it will erode over to the dam. I understand all that. I am just trying to figure out the math IF the spillway functions with no problems at all.

Can more water come in than is going out? Can more than 1.2 Million acre feet come in during a couple days if the first spillway runs at maximum and doesn't erode dangerously?

What is Shasta drains? Anybody got math on that?

Please, I beg you, can we try to stick to math here? Thanks. Would love to get some numbers.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2017 12:01 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
Either way, they will use the snow melt to attack Trumps EPA stance, and not point the finger at the gross mismanagement of funds that led the dam to deteriorate
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02/13/2017 12:03 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
acre feet ? is that even a thing ?
cubic feet i can work with .
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2017 12:05 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
acre feet ? is that even a thing ?
cubic feet i can work with .
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74030634


They use ACRE FEET to make this seem like less than it is.


Cubic feet will be astounding.




How many cubic foot in 1 acre foot? The answer is 43560.0004435.
We assume you are converting between cubic foot and acre foot.
You can view more details on each measurement unit:
cubic foot or acre foot
The SI derived unit for volume is the cubic meter.
1 cubic meter is equal to 35.3146665722 cubic foot, or 0.000810713182109 acre foot.
Note that rounding errors may occur, so always check the results.
Use this page to learn how to convert between cubic feet and acre feet.
Type in your own numbers in the form to convert the units!

[link to www.convertunits.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2017 12:07 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
42
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02/13/2017 12:09 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
42
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73953975


clappa
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
This said they are releasing 100-110,000 acre ft of water over the regular damn to lower the water levels - and that is twice the amount flowing in 50-55,000 acre feet.

They must get it lower before the snowmelt expected in the storms later this week

They said (Channel 3- K- ???)
IF they can continue to let out 2x as much as is going in over regular dam

And IF the current emergency spillway holds - letting out more overflow without becomg completely compromised

And IF erosion can be reinforced with giant bags of rocks

And IF no more rains or water are coming soon

Then it's all under control - haha

And IF erosion hasn't already turned it into one big mudslide - what's the word when soils are supersaturated and FLOW - forgot - it's a special word for when the earth moves like an avalanche - but no Warning before it FAILS
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/13/2017 12:10 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
I guess what I am trying to ask is whether or not the dam was designed to handle a rainy season like 1861-1862, when the central valley was a lake up to 30 feet deep. They are saying this is the wettest season since they started keeping records. If the main spillway runs at full capacity, was it designed for this sort of rain and snowmelt? If it hadn't started eroding, can the dam handle the water coming in? Did they build for a "thousand year" flood?

It boils down to acre feet in and acre feet out. If they can get 1.2 million acre feet out in three days, can more than 1.2 million acre feet come in during that short a time from storms? (I think it could if Shasta bursts....)

Just looking for math figures, thanks.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2017 12:16 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
here is some simple math, they were aware for 12 years they had a problem yet ignored it, meaning Bush and Obama failed the people, one for 4 years the other for 8. shows you Obama ignored the problem twice as much as Bush. but then golf for Obama was a bigger priority. people there should Love Bush and Obama for this.
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
At the same time, DWR officials noted at a noon media briefing (on Friday), runoff into the lake is decreasing. The inflow hit a peak of 190,000 cubic feet per second Thursday evening and had fallen to 130,000 by midnight Friday.

The spillway has a maximum capacity of 250,000 cfs, but the most that has ever flowed down the chute was about 150,000 cfs in 1997. And obviously now with the hole in the chute, they have been running it at less.
UrTard Dume

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02/13/2017 12:25 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
This said they are releasing 100-110,000 acre ft of water over the regular damn to lower the water levels - and that is twice the amount flowing in 50-55,000 acre feet.

They must get it lower before the snowmelt expected in the storms later this week

They said (Channel 3- K- ???)
IF they can continue to let out 2x as much as is going in over regular dam

And IF the current emergency spillway holds - letting out more overflow without becomg completely compromised

And IF erosion can be reinforced with giant bags of rocks

And IF no more rains or water are coming soon

Then it's all under control - haha

And IF erosion hasn't already turned it into one big mudslide - what's the word when soils are supersaturated and FLOW - forgot - it's a special word for when the earth moves like an avalanche - but no Warning before it FAILS
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72038469


Liquefaction?

Last Edited by UrTard Dume on 02/13/2017 12:26 PM
UrTard Dume
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2017 12:29 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
From what I understand the problem is that the spillway isn't holding. In other words releasing the water is a problem.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/13/2017 12:34 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
From what I understand the problem is that the spillway isn't holding. In other words releasing the water is a problem.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73778773


Yes, that is what I was trying to figure it. It sounds like the numbers show that the spillway could handle all the imput if it functions properly and can be run at maximum capacity. So they did design it for this kind of flooding.

Too bad they let the cracks go unfixed.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2017 12:35 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
This said they are releasing 100-110,000 acre ft of water over the regular damn to lower the water levels - and that is twice the amount flowing in 50-55,000 acre feet.

They must get it lower before the snowmelt expected in the storms later this week

They said (Channel 3- K- ???)
IF they can continue to let out 2x as much as is going in over regular dam

And IF the current emergency spillway holds - letting out more overflow without becomg completely compromised

And IF erosion can be reinforced with giant bags of rocks

And IF no more rains or water are coming soon

Then it's all under control - haha

And IF erosion hasn't already turned it into one big mudslide - what's the word when soils are supersaturated and FLOW - forgot - it's a special word for when the earth moves like an avalanche - but no Warning before it FAILS
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72038469


110,000 acre feet times 43560 = 4,791,600,000 CUBIC feet per second.

Much more than Niagara Falls. [link to images.slideplayer.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2017 12:36 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
From what I understand the problem is that the spillway isn't holding. In other words releasing the water is a problem.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73778773


Yes, that is what I was trying to figure it. It sounds like the numbers show that the spillway could handle all the imput if it functions properly and can be run at maximum capacity. So they did design it for this kind of flooding.

Too bad they let the cracks go unfixed.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70561639


The water is not flowing over the spillway anymore, but three more storms are on their way this week to the area.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2017 12:42 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
They just said the 1.2 million number is wrong. But it is 200,000.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/13/2017 01:11 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
They just said the 1.2 million number is wrong. But it is 200,000.
 Quoting: Cavjock12


Ive been trying to find numbers online. The LA times said it took less than a week to go from 80% of capacity to full. That 20% would be 700,000 acre feet (out of 3.5 million).

So if the true number for how much they can release before the next storms is only 200,000 and not 1.2 million, that means doom with a few days of rain.

The official figure still appears to be a 1.2 million af release by wednesday. Of course i cant believe the official line. Where did you hear 200,000? Thanks.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2017 06:03 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
acre feet ? is that even a thing ?
cubic feet i can work with .
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74030634


They use ACRE FEET to make this seem like less than it is.


Cubic feet will be astounding.




How many cubic foot in 1 acre foot? The answer is 43560.0004435.
We assume you are converting between cubic foot and acre foot.
You can view more details on each measurement unit:
cubic foot or acre foot
The SI derived unit for volume is the cubic meter.
1 cubic meter is equal to 35.3146665722 cubic foot, or 0.000810713182109 acre foot.
Note that rounding errors may occur, so always check the results.
Use this page to learn how to convert between cubic feet and acre feet.
Type in your own numbers in the form to convert the units!

[link to www.convertunits.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73685179


Apologize - it is Cubic Feet

One live stream I was watching referenced acre feet - which I also had never heard of - and that's why I remembered it

Either speakers mistake - or for a different type of measurement.

Accuracy counts and I couldn't wait to get home from work and correct this
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2017 06:23 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
One plus one = Two days of rain coming = too frickin' much water. Math is only complex for morans.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2017 06:28 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
Weather forecast....oroville and down flood are screwed!!! [link to forecast.weather.gov]
GrizzlyBear

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02/13/2017 06:35 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
((43560*((AB)3/10000)^.855)*(1.2(x2/43560)))*.85

A=acre feet
B=Inflow
X=Outflow
Rule#4 Double Tap.
deplorable abeliever
Members

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02/13/2017 06:40 PM

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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
It's out of control.

Not even done with rain season!

Then snow melt from the Sierra Nevadas..


Just evacuate people!

HA!!! and they wanted to secede!

Get on your knees California and beg Trump to help
woowoochic

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02/13/2017 06:55 PM

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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
42
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73953975


lmao
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2017 06:58 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
This said they are releasing 100-110,000 acre ft of water over the regular damn to lower the water levels - and that is twice the amount flowing in 50-55,000 acre feet.

They must get it lower before the snowmelt expected in the storms later this week

They said (Channel 3- K- ???)
IF they can continue to let out 2x as much as is going in over regular dam

And IF the current emergency spillway holds - letting out more overflow without becomg completely compromised

And IF erosion can be reinforced with giant bags of rocks

And IF no more rains or water are coming soon

Then it's all under control - haha

And IF erosion hasn't already turned it into one big mudslide - what's the word when soils are supersaturated and FLOW - forgot - it's a special word for when the earth moves like an avalanche - but no Warning before it FAILS
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72038469


Liquefaction
Dontwastetime

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02/13/2017 07:00 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
It's out of control.

Not even done with rain season!

Then snow melt from the Sierra Nevadas..


Just evacuate people!

HA!!! and they wanted to secede!

Get on your knees California and beg Trump to help
 Quoting: deplorable abeliever


THIS ^^^^^^^
jake

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02/13/2017 07:08 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
you cannot forget to add in snow melt
Evil controls the ignorant... Climate change is a hoax so is the vax you have been fear-porned into compliance!

Definition Satan from the bible: Satan (Rev 12:7) exercising his subtle (indirect) impact on heathen governments (powers) – i.e. accomplishing his hellish agenda from "behind the scenes."
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2017 07:17 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
acre feet ? is that even a thing ?
cubic feet i can work with .
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74030634


an acre foot of water is enough to cover a flat acre of ground with water 1 foot high


with a little math,u can convert it to cubic feet
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2017 07:21 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
CALL ME THE COSMIC MATHMETICIAN.

Anything man designs Regardless of cfs will fail at some point.
So we get a damn failure this time because of record rainfall;
NEXT it will be excess radiation from unexpected combination of earthquake/Tsunami/new fuel rod storage;
After that an ignorance of the Sun Cyles.
And finally adopting a great arrogance of self.

YEAH I KNOW mentioned very little about math; the reason ??
When the soul connects directly to the creator these calculations are automatically performed for you
WHY FIGHT IT ?
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2017 07:23 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
PS: The only calculation needed is to GET OUT of the way & learn humility of purpose !
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/13/2017 07:59 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
[link to www.washingtonpost.com (secure)]

Up to nine inches of precipitation is possible in the region over the next seven days. That’s what global weather forecast models are predicting as three storms line up back-to-back for Northern California. After a relatively dry Monday and Tuesday, rain will return Wednesday and last through early next week.

Even if we assume widespread rainfall totals of six inches in the Oroville runoff area, that would mean 400 billion gallons, or 1.23 million acre-feet, of water input over the next five to 10 days.

Alan Haynes, a hydrologist at the River Forecast Center, says they expect 2.2 million acre feet to flow into Northern California’s water infrastructure during the melt season between April and July. But there’s a considerable amount of uncertainty in that forecast this year.

“The high end is more like up around 3.4 million acre feet, if it stays wet through the spring,” Haynes told The Washington Post, “which is twice as much as average.”

******************

Well, if they can drop 1.2 million acre feet by Wed and keep spilling, they will survive the next ten days.

Then they have to do the same thing for every storm after that.

The snow melt coming is enough to fill the entire reservoir perhaps, so the spillway has to keep draining...and eroding.

The dams upstream are maxed out, and they will have to start letting out extra water, so add that. Shasta for sure.

I guess if it was me I'd pull the plug and empty the thing out and be done with it....but what do I know.....
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/13/2017 08:18 PM
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Re: Oroville dam math. Can we do the math here please? Just math. Hoping for some math imput.
Bill Croyle, acting director of the state Department of Water Resources:

As long as the integrity of the main spillway holds, he believes he can push 1.2 million acre-feet of water out in a day's time.

Read more here: [link to www.sacbee.com]

If they can push out 1.2 million acre feet daily, that dam will be fine.

Everything depends on spillway erosion. If it holds, all is well. Can you really spill that much water and not keep eroding over towards the dam???





GLP