OP - share some thoughts. I am guessing you mean to say that the spillway will fail. The damn is some distance from the spillway and E-spillway and do not see how the actual damn itself will fail.

I have watched several earthen damns and levies fail from liquefaction. So despite all the news today saying that they have avoided further erosion below the emergency spillway by allowing more flow out of the main spillway thereby lowering the lake level that - those efforts have ZERO affect on the substrate soil and the liquefaction that could take place. Don't get me wrong - there is way more eradication of the spillway than can be filled with rocks and concrete at this point. But I think with the upcoming rains and the build up of pressure under the emergency spillway - that is where I am thinking we have failure.

I am also thinking catastrophic landslide could happen under the main spillway if they continue at >100kgps outflow.

What are you thinking?