In announcing a secret ballot for Tuesday’s no confidence vote in President Jacob Zuma, National Assembly Speaker Baleka Mbete stepped up to the plate of constitutional responsibility. South Africans looked to Parliament for “signals of hope”, she said on Monday afternoon less than 24 hours before the debate and vote. “I have considered the environment and heard voices expressing doubt in the integrity and values of our 20-year-old Constitution. We therefore have to use this opportunity to show responsiveness to our people. This decision is, therefore, in the best interest of the country.”
 By MARIANNE MERTEN.
But it ain’t over till the Fat Lady sings. And that is the count, and announcement, of the secret ballot in Tuesday’s no confidence debate and vote. Two-hundred and one yeas are needed for a successful motion, leading to the resignation of Zuma, his deputy, the whole Cabinet and the deputy ministers, in line with Section 102(2) of the Constitution.
Shortly after Mbete’s announcement for a secret ballot, opposition parties said they were confident they had the required support from ANC MPs. It’s been three months of lobbying and cajoling – the motion was first set down for 18 April, but postponed pending the Constitutional Court action by the United Democratic Movement (UDM), IFP and Cope – and the lobbying was set to continue overnight.
That’s lobbying not only by the opposition parties in the ranks of the ANC parliamentary caucus, but also by those within the ANC who favour a vote of conscience rather than toeing the party line of defeating what the governing party continues to call a “frivolous” opposition motion, to find like-minded party colleagues.
With the opposition holding a combined 151 seats it needs everyone present and voting in support of the motion – that’s not going to happen as some of the smaller parties have indicated they would abstain – plus well over 50, preferably at least 60 or 70 ANC MPs, to carry the motion.
The ANC nationally and in Parliament on Monday maintained the motion would be defeated. “We reiterate our stance that the ANC will vote against this motion. We will not vote with the opposition to collapse our democratically elected government,” said ANC Chief Whip Jackson Mthembu on Monday afternoon.
ANC national spokesperson Zizi Kodwa said earlier: “We do not nor have we ever doubted their (ANC MPs) loyalty and discipline in relation to the decisions of the movement. Accordingly, we have no doubt that this frivolous motion, which has been hyped up by opposition parties as some sort of Damascus moment, will fail like many before it.”
The last no confidence motion on 10 November, 2016 was defeated 214 against, 126 in favour. That vote was difficult for ANC MPs, former tourism minister now parliamentarian Derek Hanekom told Daily Maverick’s The Gathering – Media Edition last week. But the hope had been that the ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) would ask Zuma to step down. This was defeated in the NEC then, and again earlier this year, despite increasingly vocal calls for Zuma to go from within the ANC veterans and stalwarts, alliance partners Cosatu and the South African Communist Party (SACP) and across civil society from labour, religious faith communities and business.
Much has changed since that last no confidence motion in Parliament.
The midnight Cabinet reshuffle of 31 March, 2017 triggered ratings downgrades as then finance minister Pravin Gordhan and his deputy Mcibisi Jonas, both internationally respected, were removed from office amid wide-ranging changes. A technical recession hit after two quarters of contraction in the wake of low business and consumer confidence. Economic growth forecasts stalled even as the international recovery from the 2008 economic crisis continued elsewhere in the globe, as South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago recently pointed out in Parliament. Unemployment has increased to 27.7% on the restricted definition – and has remained there – while it hits just over 36% on the broader definition of including all those who want to work but can’t find employment.
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