The Perfect Storm for a War With China

A war between China and Taiwan is nearly inevitable. And if the U.S. military intervenes, it could easily escalate, drawing in several of the world’s most powerful militaries.

China’s Ministry of National Defense published its defense policy, which includes suppressing “proponents of separatist movements … and to oppose and contain ‘Taiwan independence.’” The document goes on to outline a number of goals, including “to solve the Taiwan question and achieve complete reunification of the country.” It is clear that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) sees Taiwan as part of China and it is determined to rule over the island nation.

In 1979, when the United States switched its recognition from Taiwan (officially known as the Republic of China or ROC) to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), U.S. troops were removed from Taiwan, but Washington stressed that it would continue to maintain cultural, commercial, and other relations with Taiwan. The United States did, however, erase the name ROC from all official documents and began referring to the island as Taiwan.

While not officially backing Taiwan independence, the U.S. Taiwan Relations Act states that if China attacks Taiwan, “the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services … to enable Taiwan to maintain sufficient self-defense capabilities.” Additionally, the United States regards continued, close relations with Taiwan as a significant part of its Asia policy to maintain peace and stability in the region.

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