Cass Freight Index....tell me this chart doesn't scare you about our economy!

We may be on the verge of something major sliding in the wrong direction.

Poked around a bit .... and to get a decent picture one would need to look at the detail breakouts since a couple of things are impacting any generalized freight index at the moment.

#1 is the continuing decline in coal shipments. Those are dropping steadily now as export markets close off and domestic consumption continues to decline quickly. Is that part of the Cass calculation? I couldn't tell with a quick review.

#2 the rapid decline in oil prices, along with the quick growth of utilizing cheaper natural gas for powering the big carrier companies trucks is definitely affecting the PRICING of shipping. Lower fuel costs ... lower prices to the shipper. Pricing of shipping is part of the Cass calculation but it is hard to tell how much

Historically the shipping data from UPS and Fed Ex have been a very good indicator of business activity increasing or decreasing ... but alas with Amazon moving very quickly to bring much of it's shipping in house those two traditional sources of information are distorted at the moment since both are losing large amounts of their Amazon related shipping. (this could also be affecting the Cass numbers at the edges since I am sure Amazon is NOT giving their INTERNAL shipping numbers to Cass, remember Amazon Air is now the 5th biggest air freight company in the world, and still growing).

Obviously the Cass info is enough to make one sit up ... but that is to sit up and delve into the details of what is really going on.

The real key to to go back and look at some of the historical data from 2008 what happened and compare to today's economy. This sends chills up my back because there were months of advanced index's showing what was coming in 08'. Today everyone acts like it's sunshine and rainbows and it's tracing the same way. The market has also founded the perfect "head and shoulders" technical formation. The next 30 days will make/break what is going to happen in our economy. This was another metric for me to look at and it causes many questions.

I was on 271 here in Ohio the other day and its wall to wall trucks out there.

Sounds right...Cass Index must me lying.

Go look at what Gold did in 2008 when the recession hit. Look at it compared to what is happening today. It's friggin identical!

[link to finance.yahoo.com (secure)]

And they just say "It's overbought!"

I can only report what I see.....

a once in a life time crash is just around the corner, the chip takes it place, money never returns. hard times get to know them, for they are on the way...

I don't think it rebuilds this time. The oligarchs want to see this crash and crash harder than ever before. I won't be surprised for a false flag event around the corner to help speed things up. They know that over 1/2 this country has waken up.....they are a wounded animal in the corner. It's time for them to bite...and bite hard.

Very real Blue Collar LABOR SHORTAGE out here in manufacturing land. I am still hearing radio ads for workers as I drive around ... this has been going on for 3 or so years now.

That LABOR SHORTAGE is finally causing pay to go up for people in that end of the work force, but the days of the very good paying Union Jobs are mostly gone now. Wage growth is slow, though job availability is VERY HIGH (as long as you can pass the drug test that is).

Also watch RV sales. Those tend to collapse early, before anything shows on the regular statistics, as blue collar workers (the typical buyers of RV's) see the slowdown starting in their businesses and their, and their friends, overtime gets cut, or empty positions are no longer having new hires come in to fill.

Last Edited by Midwest Skeptic on 06/24/2019 05:10 PM

It’s gonna happen. Don’t think they can stop it