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THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472

 
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
Dorian is becoming better organized, as banding is developing around it and ahead of the small CDO it's trying to build. This is vital to encasing it from Dry air. If it does this successfully it stands a good chance to survive as shear is light aloft.

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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
Up to 60 MPH

5:00 AM AST Mon Aug 26
Location: 11.9°N 56.4°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
As mentioned in the NHC discussion. A slight shift north has occured in the track.

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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
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#BREAKING Tropical Depression Five has formed in the Atlantic basin.
The NHC expects this to become a hurricane as it moves into the Caribbean.
 Quoting: Luisport



The last time I heard the name Dorian, was the movie The Portrait of Dorian Grey.

Is this code for something? or just an odd name choice... ?
 Quoting: deplorable scottfree


You are onto something. Because the Portrait was Mandellad into "The Picture Of Dorian Gray."Mandela effects are often multiple. So this storm will have a high strangeness.
"Aside from the small band of Forteans scattered around the world, nobody seems to notice all aspects of this phantasmagoria."
John Keel
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
The SHIPS shows shear values no greater then 11 throughout Dorians’s journey
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
As mentioned in the NHC discussion. A slight shift north has occured in the track.

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 Quoting: Luisport


This shift is significant and puts dorian on track to touch Eastern Puerto Rico as cat1 storm

The storm is a full degree north of original predictions, again showing it is far too early to trust any of the models.

00
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
As mentioned in the NHC discussion. A slight shift north has occured in the track.

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 Quoting: Luisport


This shift is significant and puts dorian on track to touch Eastern Puerto Rico as cat1 storm

The storm is a full degree north of original predictions, again showing it is far too early to trust any of the models.

00
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77330562


hesright
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
Good morning, From the NWS in Melbourne.

Labor Day Weekend...All eyes shift to the weekend and the fate of
Dorian as tropical moisture approaches the FL peninsula. Have drawn
PoPs near climo at 50%, however this may take an upward trend later
this week depending on the evolution of the tropical cyclone. Models
are still producing various solutions in the fate of Dorian over the
next seven days, as it moves WNW across the northeast Caribbean and
Greater Antilles, leading to much uncertainty in the forecast. For
now, higher moisture is expected to reach FL by Saturday, leading to
the potential for a soggy Labor Day weekend.

Since any potential impacts are nearly a week away, and the peak of
the hurricane season is rapidly approaching, all persons in Florida
should closely monitor forecasts and updates this week from both the
National Hurricane Center and your local National Weather Service
Office. There`s no better time than now to review your hurricane
preparedness plan, and make sure you hurricane supply kit is fully
stocked and up to date.

&
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
000
WTNT65 KNHC 260956
TCUAT5

Tropical Storm Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
600 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS...

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 56.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...330 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
These are all grey matters now
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
Odd thing, I just checked ICON again and at 120 hours the model shows Dorian just to the NE of Cuba. Earlier when I posted about it shooting the Florida Straits, it showed the storm in the GOM at about 27.36 N, 86.73 W. This is a pretty huge change in 3 hours. Curious to see next run. Was it a computer glitch for the model? Don't know but hoping that's all it was because ICON was amazingly dead on with Barry.
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
Odd thing, I just checked ICON again and at 120 hours the model shows Dorian just to the NE of Cuba. Earlier when I posted about it shooting the Florida Straits, it showed the storm in the GOM at about 27.36 N, 86.73 W. This is a pretty huge change in 3 hours. Curious to see next run. Was it a computer glitch for the model? Don't know but hoping that's all it was because ICON was amazingly dead on with Barry.
 Quoting: abrock


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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
According to all these models FL gets hit no matter which path it takes
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 AUG 2019 Time : 102021 UTC
Lat : 11:57:35 N Lon : 56:40:19 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 999.8mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.5 3.5

Center Temp : -50.3C Cloud Region Temp : -54.5C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.96 ARC in LT GRAY

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 32nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES16
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.6 degrees
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
Dvorak T numbers support an intensity of 65mph with Dorian
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
...COMPACT DORIAN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY...
8:00 AM AST Mon Aug 26
Location: 12.0°N 57.0°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
All Georgia, Cat 5, mark my words.
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
All Georgia, Cat 5, mark my words.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77949927


Scott's dale, in my opinion, all out cat 5, massive destruction ahead, expect thread to have 5498 pages
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
All Georgia, Cat 5, mark my words.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77949927


Scott's dale, in my opinion, all out cat 5, massive destruction ahead, expect thread to have 5498 pages
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74006273


Please...
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
000
ABNT20 KNHC 261146
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dorian, located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of
the Lesser Antilles.

An elongated area of low pressure located about 275 miles south-
southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina has become a little
better organized overnight. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional gradual development, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone is likely to form later today or Tuesday while
the system moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the
United States east coast. The reconnaissance aircraft mission for
today has been canceled.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
Conflicting outlook. Oh well no recon
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 AUG 2019 Time : 112020 UTC
Lat : 12:00:33 N Lon : 56:52:32 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 998.5mb/ 53.0kt
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
Dorian looks frankly incredible this morning, literal classic "hurricane" shape with the two bands and an expanding CDO. The banda should help protect the core from dry air intrusion and allow it to continue strengthening

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Re: THE GREAT DORIAN HURRICANE CAT5. 906Mb : Max wave 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet! That matches max wave during the Perfect Storm in 1991!!!p472
Lots of lightening, hot towers and some expansion as well. Looks like a borderline TS to H...

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