Hurricane Humberto: Humberto is now a MAJOR HURRICANE, a Category 3 with 120mph sustained winds. Hurricane warning for Bermuda NOW!!!p14

Four day stall over Bahamas?

[link to imgur.com (secure)]

[link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)]

[link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)]

Dropping in to follow. Unfortunately this one is going to affect people as well

@weatherchannel
What today's "climatological peak" of the Atlantic #hurricane season means and how much more activity there is left.

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

I see GFS dropped the big bad storm last night but as well began to development the GOM system... hmm

94L headed towards the Lesser Antilles has lost most of its convection

A tropical wave (94L) located at 11am EDT Tuesday near 14N, 47W, about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, was headed west at about 10 mph. This system has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms since Monday, and has very poor model support for development.

Satellite images on Tuesday morning showed that 94L had an elongated but fairly well-defined surface circulation, but almost no heavy thunderstorm activity. The severely limited heavy thunderstorm activity was due to dry air, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis.

The 6Z Tuesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that the atmosphere in front of 94L would have mostly favorable conditions for development over the next two days, with low wind shear and sea surface temperatures of 28 – 29°C (82 – 84°F). However, mid-level relative humidity was predicted to remain near 55%, which is on the dry side for tropical cyclone development. Dry air will inhibit development unless 94L can generate enough heavy thunderstorm activity to moisten the atmosphere. By Friday, when 94L will be nearing the Lesser Antilles Islands, some models (though not all) were predicting moderate wind shear that would make development more difficult.

The 0Z and 6Z Tuesday runs of our three top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET—all showed no support for development, and none of the 70 members of the 0Z ensemble runs of the GFS and European models showed 94L reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands as a tropical depression.

The tropical wave is predicted to take a track mostly to the west over the coming week, and 94L could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Saturday. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 20%. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Humberto.

Next wave to watch is off the coast of Africa

A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Monday had less support for development from the Tuesday morning model runs than than on Monday, but it is still one we need to keep a close eye on. This wave, which had not yet been given an “Invest” assignment by NHC, had a good deal of spin but limited heavy thunderstorm activity on Tuesday morning, as seen on satellite imagery.

The tropical wave will benefit from the moister atmosphere that 94L has created in its wake, but none of the 0Z and 6Z Tuesday runs of our three top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET—predicted that the wave would develop in the coming five days. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively.

Disturbance in the southeast Bahamas

An area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system was bringing disorganized heavy thunderstorms to the waters of the southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday morning. The system was showing increasing organization on satellite imagery compared to on Monday, but was battling high wind shear near 20 knots.

We can expect the disturbance to bring a few areas of 2 – 4” of rain to portions of Cuba and southern portions of The Bahamas Tuesday through Thursday, and to South Florida Friday through Sunday. This system had support for development from about 10 – 20% of the 70 ensemble members of the 0Z Tuesday GFS and European models, with development most likely to occur on Saturday or Sunday, after the system crosses Florida and enters the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 30%, respectively.

[link to www.wunderground.com (secure)]

Gn
768
ABNT20 KNHC 101755
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory
on Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, located over the far north
Atlantic Ocean.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough
near the southeastern Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters has
increased since yesterday. Limited development of this disturbance
is expected during the next couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward across the Bahamas. However, environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for development when
the system moves over the Florida Straits and the Gulf of Mexico
late this week and this weekend. Regardless of development, this
disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall across
the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday and
continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave located
about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although some slight
development of this system is possible today or Wednesday, by
Thursday, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation. This disturbance is expected to move
slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is expected to move quickly westward during the
next several days. Some slow development is possible over the
weekend when the system is a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hamrick/Blake

From the Miami NWS Disco...

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: As we move towards the end of the
week, Friday and into the weekend, the strong high pressure will
begin to weaken and a trough will be approaching the region.
Latest TAFB surface analysis has this trough currently extending
over the Turks and Caicos Islands. The National Hurricane Center
is monitoring this area for tropical development and currently
has a low chance of formation of 10 percent in the next 48 hours
and 30 percent the next five days. The trough will track across
the Bahamas through the week and towards the Florida peninsula the
end of the week and into the weekend. The trough will bring an
increase in tropical moisture with precipitable water values
greater than 2 inches. Regardless of tropical development,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across South Florida Friday into the weekend as the trough tracks
through. We will have to monitor as the week progresses any
flooding potential that may result of multiple rounds of
precipitation over the same location.

DEY B FUCT!

A from New Orleans!

GFS:

Monday 16th September - [link to tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]



Still there by Thursday...
[link to tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]




Then, Monday 23rd September - [link to tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]





Euro:

Saturday 21st September -
[link to tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]

oops wrong timeframe, fixed it

[link to tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]

Good morning, from the NWS in Melbourne.

Fri-Sun...The waves axis is forecast to reach the FL Keys by Friday
evening and move northwest toward the southeast Gulf into Sat
evening as weak low pressure tries to develop along the inverted
surface trough late this weekend. Deepening moisture associated with
the easterly wave will increase shower and isolated storm chances
across all of east central FL with rain chances in the likely range.
Will advertise highest POPs around 70 percent Saturday and bracket
this period with 60 percent for Friday for Sunday. Breezy conditions
are expected with easterly winds Fri and Sat becoming southeast into
Sunday. GFS progs PWAT values increasing to 2.3-2.5 inches in some
of the forecast convective shower bands on the ascendant side of the
low level wave axis. Both global models (GFS/ECMWF) point to the
potential for locally heavy rainfall especially Saturday and Sunday
with any deeper convection on the east side of the wave axis or weak
low pressure that may develop. Expect higher nocturnal rain chances
as well Fri night and Sat night with scattered showers and isolated
storms with the approach and passage of the easterly wave.

Irma 2.0 GoM?

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern
Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few
hundred miles are associated with a surface trough of low pressure.
Limited development of this system is anticipated today or
tomorrow, however conditions are forecast to become a little more
favorable for development over the weekend, and a tropical tropical
depression could form as the disturbance moves slowly toward the
west-northwest across the Florida Straits or South Florida and over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, this
disturbance could produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida
during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This
disturbance is accompanied by a large but disorganized area of
cloudiness and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move
westward toward unfavorable upper-level winds for tropical cyclone
formation.

2. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

3. A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the
next several days. Some slow development is possible over the
weekend or early next week when the system is moving over the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila