Hurricane Humberto: Humberto is now a MAJOR HURRICANE, a Category 3 with 120mph sustained winds. Hurricane warning for Bermuda NOW!!!p14

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Forests in Grand Bahama left unrecognizable after Dorian’s wrath

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If the SW convection and NE convection (for 95L) form around circulation we in trouble imo

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@Jackson_Dill
8 minHá 8 minutos
Mais
Satellite presentation of Invest #95L is fairly impressive with convection becoming more persistent, although organization is lacking. There is also no low-level circulation at this time but that can change by the end of this week.

I will not be surprised at all if 95L becomes a strong TS if not a weak Cat 1 before coming across FL.

euro model - up to 16 inches rainfall from system 95L

not good for areas of FL already saturated

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Ut Oh

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is anticipated at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the area
this weekend and into the early part of next week as a tropical
wave approaches from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Locally
heavy rainfall, gusty winds and higher than normal tides may be
possible, dependent on the eventual development or potential track
of this system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
415 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Expect warm and dry conditions to prevail for the next few days.
Only a few stray showers or storms will be possible through
Friday. An upper ridge over the eastern US will keep the area warm
and fairly dry. Temperatures in the mid 90s should be the rule
through Friday. For the weekend going into next week the big
forecast issue will be the tropical disturbance forecasted to move
into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Model guidance this afternoon
has shifted the track of this disturbance east. This would lend to
a drier forecast for this weekend going into next week. The ECMWF
is more aggressive with development than the GFS. Have stuck more
with previous forecast as significant changes to the forecast will
be needed depending on the eventual track of the tropical
disturbance. Also the organization and potential strength of said
system will also have an impact on the forecast going into next
week. Right now will keep increased POPS going into the weekend
into early next week. Watch for significant changes in the
forecast due to variability in the eventual track of the
disturbance.

Yes, I'm in Pinellas county here, and we've had ridiculous amounts of rain this year, ground totally saturated.

Umm Luis, you might wanna take a look at this

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Florida here, what is am I looking for on the map?

@B_Carp01
NHC upgrades #95L to a 70% prob of tropical cyclone development in the next 5 days. The disturbance continues to slowly organize and has localized areas of strong convection. Latest data suggests tropical storm strength max, and a trip through the NE Gulf.

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
418 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

[...]

Friday...The axis of the approaching tropical wave should reach
Andros Island in the Bahamas Friday morning and begin to spread
deeper moisture from the Atlantic across east central Florida
through the afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient will bring
breezy conditions with numerous showers and isolated lightning
storms moving onshore. Will continue rain chances in the 60-70
percent range with highest shower chances along the Space and
Treasure Coast. Increasing cloud cover and onshore flow will limit
high temps to mid 80s at the beaches and upper 80s for the interior.

Friday night-Sun...Models begin to diverge some this weekend with
the handling of the speed and development of the tropical wave which
is forecast to move across Florida. The GFS continues to be the most
progressive with the speed of the wave with surface development
later across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The NAM is slower and has a
weak low moving onshore the SE FL coast Sat evening which then
tracks WNW across the srn peninsula. The ECMWF and UKMET are
somewhat slower and develop the system closer to the area over the
weekend with the pressure field supporting tropical cyclone
development. Will lean at this time toward a blend of the GFS/NAM
and yesterdays 12z ECMWF which indicates a a more progressive
solution with westerly motion with the wave axis, west of east
central FL. This solution will bring a threat for locally heavy rain
over the weekend across east central Florida from Friday night
through Sunday with rainfall amounts to 2-4 inches with some locally
higher isolated amounts possible especially near the east coast.
Breezy conditions will develop with windy conditions expected for
the Atlantic beaches Fri night through Sat night with onshore flow.
Rough surf will develop at the beaches through the weekend with an
increasing risk for rip currents. Prevalent cloud cover will keep
highs in the mid 80s coast to upper 80s interior. Continue to
monitor the Tropical Weather Outlook from NHC for details on
potential development of the tropical wave near FL over the upcoming
weekend.
[...]

It shows a hurricane to Portugal. (It would be second year in a row that a hurricane hits Portugal if it happens)

Oh damn... now euro model turns 95L (Likely soon to be named Humberto) into an east coast menace!

Need to see how much movement west 95L makes today... if sufficient west movement then it would mean it's more likely to bring the rains to FL central and panhandle from Saturday-Monday. If not then the weak steering currents will keep it off east coast for a few days before finally landfalling somewhere on the east coast it looks like... on this run landfall is at NJ.


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00Z EURO 1RUN JUST INSIDE 5 DAYS..... #95L INVEST....
YES YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY #95L INVEST.... THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE BAHAMAS.......AGAIN 1RUN

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Might not be as fortunate to see this one go out to sea this time, unlike Dorian...