Hurricane Humberto: Humberto is now a MAJOR HURRICANE, a Category 3 with 120mph sustained winds. Hurricane warning for Bermuda NOW!!!p14

Getting larger? Looks like it is growing to the SE, but kind of moving NW.

worst case is it does to FL what Dorian did to the Bahamas.

TRUMP needs to go play golf and stare it down again.

Here we go again.

National Hurricane Center
@NHC_Atlantic
Potential Tropical Cyclone #Nine Advisory 2: Tropical Disturbance Meandering Over the Southeastern Bahamas. [link to go.usa.gov]

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

Good Morning ,Luisport

287
FXUS62 KMFL 130758
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
358 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...Wet, windy Friday as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine moves over
the Bahamas...
...Strong downburst winds possible with convection today...

.DISCUSSION...
Today: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine meanders over the
southeastern Bahamas this morning while an upper and mid level low
sits over the Gulf of Mexico to the west of Florida. Gusty
northeasterly to easterly flow will continue today with a surge of
low level winds expected by this afternoon. The exact values vary in
the guidance but 850 mb winds in the 25 to 35 kt neighborhood are
expected which means that we could see strong wind gusts from
convection today, particularly in areas that experience healthy
amounts of diurnal heating earlier in the day. Damaging wind gusts
are possible with the supportive low level wind environment and the
potential of water loading with convection today. The tornado threat
is non-zero and the threat could emerge as Nine becomes better
organized today. A 700 mb low level jet of 30 to 40 kt will develop
on the northeastern side of the disturbance later today and wrap
around in a counterclockwise fashion with the jet streak entering
the east coast around the Lake Okeechobee region and spreading
westward and northward as the Nine moves along its eventual path.

The Weekend: The eventual track and development of Potential
Tropical Cyclone Nine will play a major role in the weather forecast
for South Florida over the weekend. Regardless of the exact path,
localized flooding from heavy rain, gusty winds, high seas in the
Atlantic, high rip current risk along the Atlantic beaches, and the
non-zero threat of tornadoes will all be hazards that will need to
be monitored. The forecast for the weekend will continue to feature
increasing rain chances, gusty winds, and the potential for tropical
storm conditions over portions of Palm Beach County and the
surrounding area.

Early to Mid Next Week: Even with the varied possibilities with Nine
as we start the next work week, most guidance shows the system to
the north of our area with a trough at the mid to upper levels along
the eastern seaboard of the United States possibly beginning to
interact with Nine. Depending on Nine`s structure at that point, our
region could see trailing moisture associated with a weaker system
or drier air brought in behind a strong system. A drier pattern
could lead to another round of hot days while a cloudier, wetter
pattern could lead to temperatures being a few degrees cooler.
Forecast confidence for next week is low to start the week and
remains low as there is some large divergence in solutions with some
featuring the mid to upper level trough settling over the region
while some other solutions have high pressure building back over the
region from the Mid-Atlantic states. The forecast stays in the
middle of the road, which favors something close to average PoPs and
temperatures for this time of year.

Good morning my friend!

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
DISTURBANCE...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 75.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Nine, centered over the central Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave located midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and
the Lesser Antilles is producing a large but disorganized area of
cloudiness and showers. Conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development in a couple days, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while the system moves
westward across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another tropical wave is located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Slow development of
this system is possible during the next several days while the
it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

just found this nice little forecast map, it is interactive. shows where the high pressure and low pressure fronts are:
[link to www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov (secure)]

now cast

5* non ape thread... Thanks Luis.

yes

Thank's!

It’s going to be a long hurricane season.

[link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)]

We're leaving for the Gulf coast this next Friday. Hope nothing hits.

[link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)]

I feel so sorry for the Bahamas. Hopefully, they won't get hit.

Well we have 96L now

96L INVEST 1909133 1200 12.0Nh 45.0W ATL 15 0