Hurricane Humberto: Humberto is now a MAJOR HURRICANE, a Category 3 with 120mph sustained winds. Hurricane warning for Bermuda NOW!!!p14

Oh boy...here we go again, Luis..

thanks ! shows severe thunderstorms over me...(southeastern Michigan)

You guys think it will turn into hurricane ? Looks unoriginized not sure . I write insurance and we have already shut off Florida for new business in case it does

GOT NEW DATA YET?

NEW CONE IN 2.5 HOURS!
OR
IS THE NEW CONE IN NOW?..

NEW CONE NOW OFF SHORE OF THE FLA COAST...MOSTLY..MOST-LY

MOVEMENT AT 1 MPH ..THAT IS A CHANGE..UH.

not bad for surfing

[link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)]

The bigest problem will be the huge rain amount i think.

Long-suffering residents of the Northwest Bahamas—still coming to grips with the human and physical toll from catastrophic Hurricane Dorian—now face a tropical storm warning for a system predicted to develop into a tropical storm by Saturday. A disturbance in the Southeast Bahamas, designated Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 (PTC 9) by the National Hurricane Center on Thursday, is expected to develop into Tropical Depression 9 or Tropical Storm Humberto.

The PTC label, introduced in 2017, refers to a disturbance that is not yet a tropical cyclone (typically because it lacks a closed center of circulation) but that could bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. The tropical storm warning for the Northwest Bahamas includes all areas except Andros Island. Tropical storm watches are up for a portion of the central east coast of Florida, as well.

PTC 9 was bringing heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the east coast of Florida and The Bahamas on Friday morning, including the islands of the Northwest Bahamas hardest-hit by Hurricane Dorian earlier this month. Settlement Point, on the western end of Grand Bahama Island, which was devastated by Dorian, recorded sustained winds of 28 mph, gusting to 32 mph, at 2 am EDT Friday morning. As of 11 am EDT Friday, the top surface winds found by the Hurricane Hunters in PTC 9 were just 25 mph, though the plane had not sampled the entire circulation yet.

Satellite loops and data from the Bahamas radar and the Hurricane Hunters on Friday morning showed that PTC 9 did not have a well-defined surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity was steadily growing in intensity, areal coverage, and organization. The system was tangled up with an upper-level trough off the west coast of Florida, and the upper-level winds associated with this trough were bringing dry air and moderate wind shear of 15 – 20 knots to the west side of PTC 9, inhibiting development. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in The Bahamas, though depressed by the passage of Hurricane Dorian, were still plenty warm for development--near 29°C (84°F).

The main threat from PTC 9 to the Northwest Bahamas is heavy rain and perhaps tropical-storm-force winds, as the system will have little time to intensify further before reaching the islands. Widespread rainfall of 2” to 4” is expected, with pockets of up to 6” possible. These conditions will hamper post-Dorian relief efforts, but will provide much-needed rain to the cisterns used to provide fresh water to the islands.

Forecast for PTC 9
The forecast models for PTC 9 have come into better agreement than on Thursday. The consensus is now that PTC will not cross into the Gulf of Mexico; fewer than 10% of the 70+ members of the 0Z Friday GFS and European model ensemble forecasts now have that solution. Instead, the models now agree upon a slow motion to the northwest bringing PTC 9 very close to the northeast coast of Florida on Saturday. By Sunday, a trough of low pressure to the north of PTC 9 is expected to pull the storm to the northeast, putting it well to the southeast of North Carolina by the middle of next week. At this time, it is very uncertain how much rainfall the Carolinas might get from PTC 9.

The main factor keeping PTC 9 in check is strong southerly wind shear and dry air from an upper-level low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Forecast models show this low retreating toward the western Gulf over the next couple of days, with upper-level high pressure building over PTC 9. This shift will make it easier for PTC 9 to strengthen over the weekend, assuming that the disturbance can consolidate around a well-defined surface low.

The 12Z Friday SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would drop to about 10 knots on Saturday and Sunday from the current 15 - 20 knots, then rise to the high range, 15 – 30 knots, beginning on Monday afternoon. The high wind shear expected early next week is a key reason why less than 10% of the 70+ members of the 0Z GFS and European model ensemble forecasts predicted that PTC 9 would eventually become a hurricane.

Despite the passage of Hurricane Dorian, which churned up vast amounts of water around the Northwest Bahamas, PTC 9 will have ample oceanic fuel. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) cooled by 2-3°F along Dorian’s path, but SSTs along the projected path of PTC 9 will still be near 29°C (84°F), which is very supportive of development.

Longer-range ensemble tracks from the GFS and European suggest that steering currents may collapse later next week, which could leave PTC 9 close enough to the East Coast to require continued monitoring.
[link to www.wunderground.com (secure)]

Nine Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Melbourne FL AL092019
1117 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

FLZ047-140000-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Southern Brevard-
1117 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Melbourne
- Palm Bay
- Cocoa Beach

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph

- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 39 to
57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force due to possible forecast changes in track, size, or
intensity.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be
completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Not available at this time. To be
updated shortly.

- Threat to Life and Property: Not available at this time. To be
updated shortly.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Not available at this time. To be updated
shortly.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
higher amounts

- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
localized flooding from heavy rain.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and
ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
bridge closures.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is marginal for tornadoes

- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency
- [link to www.ready.gov (secure)]
- Local weather conditions and forecasts
- [link to www.weather.gov]

$$

Local news just said we can expect high winds and rain showers this weekend (and just now). They say the storm will be over the Bahamas and up by spacecoast by next week.

[link to hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu]



Clear as mud

Spaghetti Model

:spaghettimodel:

Last Edited by nutmeg on 09/13/2019 03:04 PM

um, wow. yuge east shift!

[link to imgur.com (secure)]

NEW: We now have Tropical Storm #Humberto, which will minimally impact the #Bahamas for the next 24 hours before pushing off to the east-northeast. Those in #Bermuda should monitor for potential #hurricane impacts. Little to no impacts for SE US.

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

@NWSKeyWest
A 3rd area of disturbed weather has developed in the Atlantic, that may merge with an approaching tropical wave from the east over the weekend.

For a more detailed Tropical Weather Outlook, visit [link to hurricanes.gov] or tune into NOAA Weather Radio.

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

I'm confused. You named Humberto. What is the name of the 3rd?

Last Edited by nutmeg on 09/14/2019 01:52 AM

Good morning all !

I am comforted that this thread has not moved beyond page 9, with the storms moving away into the Atlantic ocean.