TS Imelda: NEW: Flash Flood Warnings issued for Beaumont/Port Arthur, TX!!!p17

local news just showed a model that predicts "potentially" 30"+ inches for coastal counties

Normally people who live in flood zones are well aware they live in flood zones before any potential flooding occurs. If you live in a flood zone you know what to expect and take precautions accordingly.

Harvey was easy for us. We are in the northern part of Cinco Ranch so fortunately, we didn't flood.

Friendswood checking in

Be safe!

Did you flood during Harvey? I did. Finally finishing drywall in my garage this week 😆 For some reason I haven’t had any feelings that anything will really happen this time around. I’ve barely given it a thought. I haven’t heard any claims of 30-40 inches around Houston whatsoever. What have you heard we will get? San Jac and Lake Houston affect me.

When I was hunting for a farm a few years ago, I rejected any that had a house prone to flooding.

During Harvey, my pasture flooded as did 90% of the homes in my small town.

My house, barn, and chicken yard stayed above the flood. I may have to move my goats back in with my chickens again.

Since when is [link to weather.us (secure)] showing the Euro model not a reliable source? Beat it troll.

Our vacay house is at Babes Beach. Hopefully, no flood there, unless there is a storm surge.

We frequent Mr Sombrero in your area

Houston...

WHAT WILL THE NAME BE?

It shows about 45 inches in a swath from Houston metro to Tyler.

000
WTNT21 KNHC 171657
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112019
1700 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS
FROM SARGENT TO PORT BOLIVAR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SARGENT TO PORT BOLIVAR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 95.4W AT 17/1700Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 95.4W AT 17/1700Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 95.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 29.4N 95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 30.1N 95.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 30.7N 95.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 31.3N 96.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 95.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Our chicken run had 20" in it during Harvey. lost No hens though.

Sounds like you're in the Alvin, Rosharon, Pearland area

[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

We looked at a house in Taylor Lake Village. Very nice area, but we ended up north of Houston instead, also a very pretty area here.

IMELDA..SINCE IT IS SO CLOSE TO MEXICO!

Have some land up on 1488 in Magnolia, you up in that area?

Glad to meet you.

The models put the bulk of the rain in our area, unfortunately.

No, we did not flood during Harvey. There was just enough pause between bands to allow most of the water to drain before the next round hit. It was very wet, but not enough to get into the house. Our foundation is built up about 18 inches from the yard.

I just went to the garage and placed some items up high. We are remodeling the kitchen/great room area, and I have appliances in the garage. When Mini LJS gets home from school she can help me with some of the heavier ones, but the 48 inch range weighs about 500 lbs -- won't be able to move that. Mr. LJS is supposed to be home Thursday night, but looks like a good chance the planes will be diverted to Dallas if this system plays out. Looks like it is me, Mini LJS, and Micro Mini LJS riding the storm out alone again.

Like my tagline says, we will stand outside and scream at the clouds, "I AM THE STORM!". It's worked thus far.

Tropical Depression Eleven Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019
1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Satellite, radar, and surface data show that the area of low
pressure near the Upper Texas coast has become better defined this
morning. The associated deep convection has also become better
organized, and winds from the Houston Doppler Radar support
an initial intensity of 30 kt. Based on these data, advisories are
being initiated on a tropical depression. The system has very
little time left over water in which to strengthen, but given the
recent increase in organization, the system is forecast to become a
tropical storm before it moves inland. As a result, a Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of the Upper Texas
coast. Regardless of the intensity of the system, the primary
threat associated is flooding rainfall that is expected over
portions of eastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana over the next
day or two.

The initial motion estimate is 005/6 kt. The cyclone should move
inland very soon, and a general northward motion around the western
side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Tennessee Valley should
continue through tonight. The system is forecast to turn north-
northwestward on Wednesday and that general motion is forecast to
continue until dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast follows
the solution of the majority of the dynamical models.

Key Messages:

1. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and
Galveston areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1700Z 28.7N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 29.4N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/1200Z 30.1N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 19/0000Z 30.7N 95.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 19/1200Z 31.3N 96.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown