LORENZO HURRICANE: Storm Lorenzo path – UK braces for 65mph winds as dozens of flood alerts issued!!!p19

Tropical Depression Ten forms east of the Leeward Islands

NHC launched advisories on Tropical Depression Ten (formerly Invest 97L) at 11 am EDT Tuesday. TD 10 is a fairly classic Cape Verde-type system, gradually organizing as it cruises through the Main Development Region of the deep Atlantic tropics between the Caribbean and Africa. TD 10 already has a robust core of convection (showers and thunderstorms) and excellent upper-level outflow, so it will likely become a tropical storm later Tuesday or early Wednesday. The next name on the Atlantic list is Jerry.

Located about 1165 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands, TD 10 will continue heading west-northwest over the next several days as it gathers strength. Wind shear will be light to moderate (around 10 knots), which should allow the depression to wall off a pocket of moisture and fend off moderately dry air at mid-levels (relative humidity around 50%). Sea surface temperatures of 28-29°C (82-84°F) are more than warm enough for development, and TD 10 may also encounter one or more pockets of elevated oceanic heat content. The 12Z Tuesday run of the SHIPS model gives TD 10 a relatively high one-in-three chance of approaching major hurricane strength by Friday, when the system will be nearing the northern Leeward Islands.

Looking further out, the 0Z Tuesday GFS and European ensemble runs suggest that TD 10 is likely to recurve before threatening the U.S. East Coast. All but about 5% of GFS ensemble members and 10-20% of Euro ensemble members show such a recurvature. It’s too soon to count on such an outcome, though, as steering currents could easily change between now and then.

Meanwhile, a new tropical wave that will come off the coast of Africa later this week has a 20 percent chance of developing into at least a tropical depression between about Thursday and Sunday, according to NHC’s 2 pm EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook.
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Bump to follow later

Definitely seems like one to keep a close eye on. If it sticks to that track hopefully Hispaniola do a decent job of knocking it down a few pegs. If it stays south of an Hispaniola landfall and keeps going West all bets are off.

Of course any tracks this early are pure speculation and should be taken with a grain of salt.

Yes of course... to follow...

000
WTNT45 KNHC 172034
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

The organization of the depression has changed little today. Bands
of deep convection are located over the southern and southwestern
portions of the circulation, but is limited over the remainder of
the cyclone. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
were unchanged from this morning, so the initial intensity is held
at 30 kt. There has been no change to the intensity forecast
reasoning or the forecast itself. The depression is forecast to
move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures and within a
generally low vertical wind shear environment. These factors favor
strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues to call for the
depression to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane
before it approaches the northern Leeward Islands.

The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. The cyclone should move
west-northwestward at an increasingly faster forward speed to the
south of a strong deep-layer ridge. The track guidance is tightly
clustered, except for the latest HWRF run which is much farther
south at days 3-5. The latest consensus aids were very close to the
previous NHC track, and little overall change to the previous
official foreast was needed.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and
Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any
direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this
system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 13.4N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 14.1N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 15.0N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 15.9N 51.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.9N 54.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 20.9N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 23.5N 70.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

Holy fuck is that real Luis?

wow... so wild Luis!

Yes... impressive isn't it?

LOL, Houston needs to keep an eye on Imelda but luckily the other Houston seems to be safe.

Last Edited by Inhuman Deviant on 09/17/2019 06:35 PM

How strong ?

I wouldn't be making any vacation plans to the tropics

Morning friend, hope you are well.
Then here we go again....

Jerry to NYC?

It's just a storm, Jesus, relax.

Until it starts blowin shit all over the place.

So what? Are you scared of a little wind?

No! For now it seems he will be a hurricane to the caribean islands

You need a job. They're hiring on Grand Bahama

He should go to Lessen Islands to welcome Hurricane Jerry...

Do we need to hear another bedtime story?

I have a special one waiting.