LORENZO HURRICANE: Storm Lorenzo path – UK braces for 65mph winds as dozens of flood alerts issued!!!p19 | |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 2914845 Portugal 09/18/2019 05:40 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: LORENZO HURRICANE: Storm Lorenzo path – UK braces for 65mph winds as dozens of flood alerts issued!!!p19 [link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)] |
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FunnyStrange
User ID: 2356841 United States 09/18/2019 06:27 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: LORENZO HURRICANE: Storm Lorenzo path – UK braces for 65mph winds as dozens of flood alerts issued!!!p19 Counting Irma, Florida has now sustained 117 direct hits by hurricanes in recorded history. 2nd place is Texas. Louisiana is third in hurricane landfalls, followed by North Carolina and South Carolina. Top 5 states. |
RPHUNTER
User ID: 1931154 United States 09/18/2019 06:56 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: LORENZO HURRICANE: Storm Lorenzo path – UK braces for 65mph winds as dozens of flood alerts issued!!!p19 Eyewall almost formed [link to col.st (secure)] Lightning constant at ten minute intervals Sea surface temps Solid 85 looking all the way in [link to www.windy.com (secure)] This one will get bigger watch out! SAT IMAGE [link to rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu] IMPACT:Gulf OF Alaska! En [link to yadi.sk (secure)] Ru [link to yadi.sk (secure)] |
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Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 2914845 Portugal 09/18/2019 08:05 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: LORENZO HURRICANE: Storm Lorenzo path – UK braces for 65mph winds as dozens of flood alerts issued!!!p19 @TropicalTidbits #Jerry is still experiencing moderate NE shear, as it has since genesis. You can see this both from the displaced low & mid-level centers on satellite, as well as the changing environmental flow w/ height on GFS. Shear will relax today/tonight for a time. Best chance for stacking |
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Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 2914845 Portugal 09/18/2019 10:39 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: LORENZO HURRICANE: Storm Lorenzo path – UK braces for 65mph winds as dozens of flood alerts issued!!!p19 Michael Ventrice ✔ @MJVentrice Impressive transverse banding seen in this morning's satellite loop of Tropical Storm #Jerry. This is an indication that the tropical cyclone is well ventilated, analogous to the tropical cyclone breathing well. With well performing lungs, expect intensification today. |
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Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 2914845 Portugal 09/18/2019 11:57 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: LORENZO HURRICANE: Storm Lorenzo path – UK braces for 65mph winds as dozens of flood alerts issued!!!p19 TCAlert @WxTca I believe Jerry is slightly discomblobulated (that was on purpose) because of some NE shear. The LLC (red) is on the northern edge of the convection. A possible center reformation could occur, with the new LLC closer to the MLC (blue). This may have major implications on track. |
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Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 2914845 Portugal 09/18/2019 04:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: LORENZO HURRICANE: Storm Lorenzo path – UK braces for 65mph winds as dozens of flood alerts issued!!!p19 "...Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.... The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches)...." |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 2914845 Portugal 09/18/2019 04:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: LORENZO HURRICANE: Storm Lorenzo path – UK braces for 65mph winds as dozens of flood alerts issued!!!p19 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Jerry continues to strengthen this afternoon, as indicated by 1-min GOES-16 satellite imagery, with a large burst of convection close to the center. In addition, microwave data show that the central structure has improved, displaying a tightly wrapped band near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, on the conservative side of the intensity estimates. The storm should become a hurricane on Thursday while it is moving over very warm waters with light shear. Dropsondes from the NOAA G-IV aircraft this afternoon show that Jerry is surrounded by some very dry air in the lower to mid-levels, and this is likely the main limiting factor on the cyclone's strengthening rate in the near term. By 48 hours, almost all of the models show an increase in northwesterly shear due to flow from an upper-level ridge, which seems likely to cause some weakening. At long range, Jerry is likely to interact with a mid-latitude trough, which is notoriously difficult to forecast. Only small changes were made to the previous wind speed prediction, and this advisory is close to a blend of the various consensus aids. The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt. There's no substantial change to the track forecast on this package, with a subtropical ridge providing a well-defined steering current. This ridge should move Jerry along at a faster forward speed in about the same direction for the next couple of days, taking the center close to but north of the northern Leeward Islands. Afterward, a northwest to northward turn, influenced by a weakness in the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto and a new mid-latitude shortwave, is anticipated. The new forecast is very close to the previous one and a blend of the latest ECMWF ensemble mean and the corrected-consensus HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm- force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 15.0N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 16.7N 55.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 17.8N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 19.1N 61.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 21.5N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 25.2N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 28.5N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 2914845 Portugal 09/18/2019 04:57 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: LORENZO HURRICANE: Storm Lorenzo path – UK braces for 65mph winds as dozens of flood alerts issued!!!p19 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 50.5W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Maarten. Meteo-France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy |
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Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 2914845 Portugal 09/18/2019 05:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: LORENZO HURRICANE: Storm Lorenzo path – UK braces for 65mph winds as dozens of flood alerts issued!!!p19 Tropical Storm Jerry Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 510 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78016157 Portugal 09/19/2019 04:26 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: LORENZO HURRICANE: Storm Lorenzo path – UK braces for 65mph winds as dozens of flood alerts issued!!!p19 As of 06:00 UTC Sep 19, 2019: Location: 15.7°N 52.6°W Maximum Winds: 60 kt Gusts: nan kt Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb Radius of Circulation: 120 NM Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM |
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