LORENZO HURRICANE: Storm Lorenzo path – UK braces for 65mph winds as dozens of flood alerts issued!!!p19

Live camera view looking South from the Soggy Dollar Beach Bar - White Bay on Jost Van Dyke in the British Virgin Islands. St. John is in the background.

[link to www.cruisin.me (secure)]

...JERRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...
2:00 AM AST Sat Sep 21
Location: 21.0°N 63.5°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

474
ABNT20 KNHC 211149
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of
Puerto Rico.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. The
wave is forecast to move quickly westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph for the next day or two, crossing the Windward Islands
on Sunday. Although the system is currently disorganized,
environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some development
and a tropical depression could form later this weekend or early
next week. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system this afternoon. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the
weekend, and interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should
monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad area of low pressure centered near the eastern tip of Cuba
continues to produce only disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Significant development of this system is not expected while it
moves slowly west-northwestward during the next couple of days due
to strong upper-level winds and interaction with land. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is likely over portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba through the weekend, potentially
causing flash flooding and mudslides in areas of high terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Jerry could pose a threat to east coast

[link to www.weathernerds.org (secure)]

Global warming?

OT:

For the last 40 years the the minimum arctic sea ice has been declining on average by ~87000 km² per year.

Here I show this decline as if it were over Europe We lose area of Iceland,Portugal,Ireland,Spain,UK, France,Germany,Italy,Sweden,Norway and more

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

I am watching Karen name means pure

Tropical Storm Karen Floods Streets, Traps People in Homes in Tobago

[link to weather.com (secure)]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 24.1W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

...KAREN NOT WELL ORGANIZED BUT HEADING TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...
11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 23
Location: 14.9°N 64.8°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Tropical Storm Warning for San Juan and Vicinity, PR
Active for next 7 hours · National Weather Service
This alert has been updated.
Posted 1 hour ago
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED

- San Juan and Vicinity

* WIND

- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind

- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph

- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 39 to
57 mph

- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.