Hagibis a threat to Japan

For the next 2-3 days, Hagibis should remain a formidable typhoon. Wind shear affecting Hagibis will remain low to moderate (around 10 knots). Sea surface temperatures will cool only slightly, dropping to around 29°C (84°F), and the environment will get somewhat drier (mid-level relative humidity dropping from around 70% to around 60%). There will likely be fluctuations in Hagibis’s strength based mainly on the timing of one or more eyewall replacement cycles. Any of these could bring down the top sustained winds for a day or more, while enlarging Hagibis by spreading the wind energy over a broader area.

Through this week, Hagibis will carve out a classic recurvature path, arcing toward the northwest and then north toward Japan and perhaps making landfall this weekend on the island of Honshu. Small variations in the timing and angle of the recurvature will determine what parts of Honshu might be affected. It’s a safe bet that Hagibis will be significantly weakening as it approaches Japan, thanks to increasing wind shear, drier air, and cooler SSTs, but the pace of that weakening remains to be seen. In its Monday morning forecast, JTWC predicted that Hagibis would be nearing the central coast of Honshu east of Kyoto on Saturday as a Category 2 storm.
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