Typhoon Hagibis continued to weaken on Friday, but was still a formidable Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds and a central pressure of 935 mb at 11 am EDT, less than 24 hours before its expected landfall near Tokyo, Japan.

Strong typhoons do not typically threaten central Japan as late as mid-October, but forecast models are in tight agreement that Hagibis will pass over the Tokyo Bay region of Japan's Honshu Island, with landfall occurring near 12Z (8 am EDT, or 9 pm local time) on Saturday. Though Hagibis is expected to make landfall, only a slight shift to the right could result in the typhoon’s eye passing just offshore, sparing Japan the worst storm surge and wind impacts.

Satellite images on Friday afternoon showed Hagibis was holding its own against dry air intruding from the west, with the typhoon featuring a small 12-mile diameter eye surrounded by a solid eyewall of intense thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. Outer bands from the large typhoon were spreading heavy rain showers across much of Japan’s main island of Honshu, as seen on Japanese radar.

Hagibis was a large typhoon at 11 am EDT Friday, with hurricane-force winds that extended out 85 – 105 miles to its north side—the side that will be impacting Japan on Saturday. As cooler waters, dry air, increased wind shear, and land interaction weaken the typhoon before landfall, Hagibis’ hurricane-force wind field is predicted to shrink, and extend 20 – 45 miles to its north at the time of landfall on Saturday. The typhoon’s radius of tropical storm-force winds is predicted to be about 350 miles at landfall. This large wind field will drive a large and damaging storm surge to the coast, if the eye of Hagibis makes landfall. Extensive wind damage and flash flooding and mudslides due to heavy rain will also be major threats from Hagibis, and the typhoon is likely to bring rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) along a long stretch of its path.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicted at 11 am EDT Friday that Hagibis would move over or near Tokyo Bay around 8 am EDT Saturday as a high-end Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. These peak winds are slightly lower than those in Typhoon Faxai, which struck Tokyo Bay as a Category 2 typhoon last month, inflicting at least $7 billion in damage, according to Aon. Faxai was Japan’s sixth most damaging typhoon on record (see below). Despite the lower peak winds expected in Hagibis, it's still possible that it will inflict damage comparable to that from Faxai, given its large swath of tropical-storm-force winds and the potential for significant storm surge.

Hagibis is disrupting the Rugby World Cup taking place in Japan, with two Saturday matches now cancelled, and a Sunday match between Scotland and host Japan in doubt.

[link to www.wunderground.com (secure)]