RUSSIA 'KEEPING A CLOSE EYE' ON WHETHER U.S. TROOPS LEAVING SYRIA, IRAN WARNS TURKEY AGAINST ATTACK

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Russia has 3 messages for Turkey over operation in Syria

Hours after Donald Trump threatened to "obliterate" Turkey's economy should Ankara do anything that he considers "off limits," Moscow struck a different tone. On Oct. 7, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, following the drawdown of US troops and the launch of the Turkish operation, reiterated Russia’s recognition of “Turkey’s right to ensure its security,” but conditioned it with several important don’ts.

“We haven’t been informed on the American pullout," Peskov said. "But you know, there were different statements about withdrawals from other parts of the world that have never materialized. We are observing the situation carefully.” He also denied that Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan had discussed Ankara’s plans to carry out a military operation in northeastern Syria. Yet he did say that the “Russian and Turkish militaries and intelligence agencies maintain close contact.”


In this tug of war for Turkey, Russia has positioned itself as a more pragmatic, predictable and “delivering” partner than the United States. Such was the case with the sale of the S-400 to Turkey.

In dealing with a difficult actor like Turkey, Russia has learned three things. First, you need to demonstrate empathy on issues that are sensitive and important to Turkish security. Second, clearly outline your own red lines and a corridor of opportunities for future cooperation on these issues. Third, take advantage of mistakes made by the other party whose position is important to Ankara — the United States — and use the contrast to your advantage. The statement by Kremlin’s spokesman reveals the ABCs of Russia's approach to Turkey.

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