TROPICAL STORM NESTOR: Nestor triggered tornadoes in Florida leaving damage, thousands without power!!!p7

People are a little wary after that catastrophic suprise last year.

.

Its fucking 59 F currently, High of 65F again today in the panhanlde.

There will be no escalation of this storm and only a diminishing storm as it gets torn apart by the cool air its encountering.

The above temps are not conducive of a strengthening storm.

Maybe you just aren't exp enough with storms, i've been watching storms since '96 online.

Might wanna plan your Friday and let this little thunderstorm roll on by!

This notion that a Cat 4-5 storm surprised the panhandle last year is another case in delusional recalling of history.

The storm was there for days and the track was there for 7 days before.

Again knowing is half the battle!

It's 6am EST Oct 18th Friday. I just looked at an excellent motion map satellite loop of the storm. It reminds me of Wilma. That's a storm that went from a tropical storm to the strongest hurricane ever recorded. It hit just south of Marco Island around Everglades City if I remember. This storm looks like it's heading the same way. Naples too. If anything it will bring a TON of rain. The radar I'm looking at has dark purple in it which mean the cloud tops are very high. This is a serious storm. It could blow up.

A tropical depression is a serious storm now?

Some of you seriously lack a brain.


45kt max expected winds with 50 mph gust's.

We have thunderstorms stronger then that, that pop up in 15 mins in the panhandle all summer on any given year!


How about you and I come back and discuss your absurd reality on Sunday?

ISSUED: 5:19 AM OCT. 18, 2019 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.

DISTURBANCE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baldwin Central,
Baldwin Coastal, Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Mobile
Central, Mobile Coastal, Okaloosa Coastal, Okaloosa Inland,
Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 540 miles southwest of Pensacola FL or about 560 miles
southwest of Destin FL
- 24.3N 92.5W
- Storm Intensity 40 mph
- Movement Northeast or 45 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 4:00 AM CDT, Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen continues to advance
northeast acorss the central Gulf of Mexico. This cyclone is expected
to gradually strengthen into a tropical or subtropical storm later
today and be positioned over the north central Gulf of Mexico by late
this afternoon. The system is forecast to near the coast later
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds along the immediate coastline of the
western Florida Panhandle will likely range between 35 to 45 mph, with
gusts up to 60 mph. Further west along the immediate coastal sections
of southwest Alabama, maximum sustained winds between 25 and 35 mph,
with gusts up to 50 mph will be likely. Winds are expected to be lower
across inland portions of coastal counties. The strongest winds are
expected tonight.

Rainfall amounts between 2 and 4 inches, with isolated higher amounts
will be possible, especially in coastal areas south of Interstate 10.
This may lead to nuescence flooding in poor drainage areas. Rainfall
totals are expected to remain below flash flood guidance at this time.

A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect with inundation of 1 to 2
feet expected tonight and Saturday morning, especially around the time
of high tide. A High Surf Advisory is also in effect with breaker
heights up to 5 to 8 feet developing this afternoon along area beaches
and persisting into early Saturday afternoon.

Prepare now for damaging winds, minor coastal flooding, strong rip
currents, and periods of heavy rainfall across locations in the
Tropical Storm Warning area.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
coastal sections of southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.
Potential impacts in this area include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.,
little to no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across coastal portions of southwest Alabama and the
western Florida Panhandle. Potential impacts include:
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
closures.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.,
little to no impact is anticipated.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
High surf with breaker heights up to 5 to 8 feet developing this
afternoon along area beaches will continue into early Saturday
afternoon. This pounding surf will create minor coastal flooding with
inundation of 1 to 2 feet expected tonight and Saturday morning,
especially at the time of high tide. Minor beach erosion will also
occur through the period. There is a high risk of rip currents through
Saturday night due to increased swell height and strong easterly
winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 10 AM CDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

If it becomes a tropical/subtropical storm, it would be called Nestor.

[link to weather.com (secure)]


Nestor means

"miracle",

[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

Yes Michael was horrific
Hurricane Michael made landfall at 2 pm EDT October 10, 2018 near Mexico Beach, FL with top sustained winds of 155 mph and a central pressure of 919 mb. This makes Michael the strongest landfalling mainland U.S. hurricane (by pressure) since Camille of 1969, which had a 900 mb pressure, and the strongest by wind speed since Hurricane Andrew of 1992, which had 165 mph winds. Note that Hurricane Maria of 2017 hit Puerto Rico with winds of 155 mph and a central pressure of 920 mb, and was virtually identical in intensity to Michael.
[link to www.wunderground.com (secure)]

7 of the most notorious October hurricanes in the Atlantic

[link to www.accuweather.com (secure)]

Hurricane Michael 2018:

Hurricane Matthew 2016:

Superstorm Sandy 2012:

Hurricane Wilma in 2005:

Hurricane Mitch 1998: (19,000 plus deaths)

Hurricane Opal in 1995:

Hurricane Hazel 1954:

The Great Hurricane of 1780 was the deadliest hurricane, killing almost 20,000 people in the Caribbean, in the same areas that were blasted by Irma and Maria.

From watching these storms over many years that movement is too fast to allow it to get better organized quickly. Gonna take some time if ever.

Juan was an ugly one. Formed in the Gulf and set it the mouth of Mobile Bay for days just spinning with tremendous amounts of soaking rain. Huge portion of the pecan trees that Baldwin County is noted for just fell over. It blew up so quick it caught the oil industry off guard and a lot of guys got caught on drilling rigs off shore and there were fatalities. Was a nasty storm indeed.

And thanks Luis for keeping on top of this!!

For Tampa Bay here is our morning forecast potential for the storm. (If you're new to FLA). Bars will still be open, just be careful driving home.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across the Nature Coast through just north of Tampa Bay.
Potential impacts in this area include:

- Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.

- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
spots.

- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
numerous rip currents.

- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages.
Elsewhere across West Central and Southwest Florida, little to no
impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the Nature Coast. Potential impacts include:

- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.

- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
and overflow in spots.

- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
closures.
Elsewhere across West Central and Southwest Florida, little to no
impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across West Central and Southwest Florida. Potential impacts include:

- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.

- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.

- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.

Actually, we might get tides/surge up to 5 potential feet along our Big Bend Coast;

ST. MARKS, Fla. (WCTV) – Hurricane season may be winding down, but those who live in coastal communities along the Big Bend know to keep a close eye to the forecast.

That's especially true this weekend, as towns like St. Marks prepare for a tropical system in the Gulf of
Mexico to make its way towards the Panhandle. "It's a little tropical storm. This is nothing," she said.
But Riverside Cafe owner Stan West has a more cautious outlook. "Do you take care of things or do you not take care of things," he said. "There's always that chance it could blow up." West can read off a menu of past storms and their effects in St. Marks. With storm surge on the table, he says his restaurant could see a foot or more of water. "We got everything so it can be washed out and clean up and we can get back into business just as quickly as possible." he said.

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
700 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 91.2W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

We want to retire someday in the panhandle...where are the best but safer areas in your opinion?

Here's some data (latest update) from the first two buoy's that PTC 16 should pass over/near/between in about 3 hours or so. Currently PTC 16 is still a good distance (70/80 miles) SW of these Buoy.
- NDBC "Station 42395 - Shell Alcyone Buoy - Walker Ridge 552"; Pressure Data = 1004.2 mb at 7:40 AM CDT.
- NDBC "Station 42001 - MID GULF - 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA"; Pressure Data =1002.3 mb at 8:00 AM CDT.