TROPICAL STORM NESTOR: Nestor triggered tornadoes in Florida leaving damage, thousands without power!!!p7 | |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 62398242 Portugal 10/18/2019 10:08 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: TROPICAL STORM NESTOR: Nestor triggered tornadoes in Florida leaving damage, thousands without power!!!p7 radar... [link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)] |
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Paranoiaaaaa
Butters User ID: 77184268 United States 10/18/2019 10:14 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: TROPICAL STORM NESTOR: Nestor triggered tornadoes in Florida leaving damage, thousands without power!!!p7 radar... [link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)] Quoting: Luisport As always, thanks Luisport! "Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get you." - Fox Mulder - The X-Files "Life is what happens while you are busy making other plans." - John Lennon |
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Butters User ID: 77184268 United States 10/18/2019 10:36 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: TROPICAL STORM NESTOR: Nestor triggered tornadoes in Florida leaving damage, thousands without power!!!p7 I found this when I checked my local weather for the weekend. Budding Tropical Storm Nestor to target northwest Florida "A budding tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico, that could soon form into the 14th named system of the Atlantic hurricane season, has officials in the southeastern United States on alert as forecasters warn the system could trigger dangerous storm surge flooding, damaging winds and heavy rain. The tropical threat, which will be named Nestor if it reaches tropical storm strength, was traveling quickly northward through the Gulf on Friday morning at 21 mph. It has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and was located about 300 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. A U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is expected to fly into the Gulf later Friday morning to gather additional information on whether the storm has reached subtropical or tropical status. AccuWeather meteorologists caution that the system will continue to fight dry air and wind shear, two factors that can inhibit growth of tropical system. " [link to www.accuweather.com (secure)] "Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get you." - Fox Mulder - The X-Files "Life is what happens while you are busy making other plans." - John Lennon |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 62398242 Portugal 10/18/2019 10:56 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: TROPICAL STORM NESTOR: Nestor triggered tornadoes in Florida leaving damage, thousands without power!!!p7 @TropicalTidbits 55 minhá 55 minutos Mais Surface winds around 60 mph on east side of the gulf storm according to @HRD_AOML_NOAA recon plane. East side will be the worst throughout the storm's life. Reminder that this southerly wind pushing water into Apalachee bay and the big bend of Florida is most dangerous hazard. |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 62398242 Portugal 10/18/2019 11:01 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: TROPICAL STORM NESTOR: Nestor triggered tornadoes in Florida leaving damage, thousands without power!!!p7 12H 19/0000Z 27.8N 88.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM The new NHC intensity forecast is adjusted upward from the previous one through 24 hours based on the initial intensity and allows for the possibility of at least some additional strengthening later today. |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 62398242 Portugal 10/18/2019 11:26 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: TROPICAL STORM NESTOR: Nestor triggered tornadoes in Florida leaving damage, thousands without power!!!p7 000 WTNT41 KNHC 181455 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 The satellite presentation of the system features an area of very deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80C within the eastern part of a rather broad and elongated surface circulation seen in visible satellite imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found flight-level winds as high as 72 kt and SFMR winds of 45-50 kt southeast of the ill-defined center, and based on these data the initial intensity is set to 50 kt. The NOAA aircraft also measured a pressure of around 1001 mb. While the cyclone has deepened, the circulation is still quite elongated and not well defined, so the system is maintained as a Potential Tropical Cyclone for now. The global models continue to indicate that the circulation will consolidate and the system will strengthen some during the next 12 hours or so, as the low-level circulation will be overtaken by an upper-level trough currently situated over southwest Louisiana. The system is still expected to become a tropical or subtropical storm later today, with the exact phase dependent on the timing of the circulation improving and the interaction with the upper trough. Once the system moves inland, it should become extratropical by 36 hours and slowly weaken once it moves offshore of the Carolinas by 72-96 hours before dissipating by day 5. The new NHC intensity forecast is adjusted upward from the previous one through 24 hours based on the initial intensity and allows for the possibility of at least some additional strengthening later today. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 055/19 given the lack of a well-defined center. The track model guidance remains in good agreement on the system moving quickly northeastward toward the northeastern Gulf Coast during the next 24 hours as it interacts with the upper trough. After moving inland, a northeastward motion is forecast to continue until after 48 hours, when an east- northeastward motion is expected, which will take the circulation offshore over the Atlantic by 72 hours. The new NHC track forecast is similar to, but a bit to the south of the previous one and is close to the various track consensus aids. Regardless of the exact evolution of the system, portions of the northeastern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds, locally heavy rains, and storm surge later today and Saturday. Similar impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground level beginning later today along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are likely later today and tonight along portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center. 3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern Gulf Coast and the southeast United States coast through Saturday night. 4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 25.9N 90.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 19/0000Z 27.8N 88.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 19/1200Z 29.9N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 32.2N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/1200Z 34.4N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1200Z 37.0N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/1200Z 37.0N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 62398242 Portugal 10/18/2019 11:41 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: TROPICAL STORM NESTOR: Nestor triggered tornadoes in Florida leaving damage, thousands without power!!!p7 @TropicalTidbits Seguir Seguir @TropicalTidbits Mais [#NerdTweet] The tropical component to this storm comes from deep convection made possible by warm SST. Blobs like the current one act as sources of diabatic heating that generate vorticity on smaller scales than the baroclinic forcing, causing a more compact circulation to form |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 62398242 Portugal 10/18/2019 12:08 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: TROPICAL STORM NESTOR: Nestor triggered tornadoes in Florida leaving damage, thousands without power!!!p7 [link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)] Current IR; looks like an eye type feature; we might be in for a stronger event! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 62398242 Portugal 10/18/2019 12:10 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: TROPICAL STORM NESTOR: Nestor triggered tornadoes in Florida leaving damage, thousands without power!!!p7 1042 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. .THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... Lightning storms will begin to develop over east central Florida mid to late afternoon. Expect brief heavy rain, wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph, along with cloud to ground lightning strikes. A developing Gulf of Mexico low pressure center will approach the region tonight. Rapidly increasing winds through the atmosphere will promote a few strong to possibly severe storms. These rapidly moving storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts near 45 to 60 mph, along with a few tornadoes within the highly sheared wind environment late tonight and into early Saturday morning. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 62398242 Portugal 10/18/2019 12:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: TROPICAL STORM NESTOR: Nestor triggered tornadoes in Florida leaving damage, thousands without power!!!p7 [link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)] Quoting: Luisport Current IR; looks like an eye type feature; we might be in for a stronger event! [link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)] |
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MaximusRex
User ID: 72151262 United States 10/18/2019 12:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: TROPICAL STORM NESTOR: Nestor triggered tornadoes in Florida leaving damage, thousands without power!!!p7 Very interesting storm for sure. I love this time of year when odd ball low pressure systems momentarily turn into tropical systems and then back again. Sometimes you can get extremely large wind fields in these situations which can cause severe surge over a larger area-- basically hybrid Tropical/NorEaster like Sandy. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 62398242 Portugal 10/18/2019 12:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: TROPICAL STORM NESTOR: Nestor triggered tornadoes in Florida leaving damage, thousands without power!!!p7 Very interesting storm for sure. I love this time of year when odd ball low pressure systems momentarily turn into tropical systems and then back again. Sometimes you can get extremely large wind fields in these situations which can cause severe surge over a larger area-- basically hybrid Tropical/NorEaster like Sandy. Quoting: MaximusRex |
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