BREAKING! Super Typhoon Kammuri heading towards Manila!

USN JTWS has identified a second tropical system forming behind Typhoon Kammuri:

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.7N 158.7E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD, WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LLC, BUT NOT OVERHEAD. A 290429Z SSMI F-15 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A COMPLETE LACK OF CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE TO WARNING STATUS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[link to www.metoc.navy.mil (secure)]

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39 - 15:00 PM JST November 30 2019
TYPHOON KAMMURI (T1928)
=======================================
Sea East of the Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Kammuri (955 hPa) located at 13.8N 135.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
70 nm from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
270 nm from the center in northwestern quadrant
150 nm from the center in southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5-

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 13.3N 129.8E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea east of the Philippines
48 HRS: 13.8N 125.7E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea east of the Philippines
72 HRS: 13.7N 121.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) over land Luzon (Batangas province)

Now in the PAR. Last bulletin from DOST-PAGASA for Typhoon Tisoy (Kammuri):
[link to bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph]

Thanks for the update. I was busy with preparations for the storm. It's track is now forecast to take it 75-100 km (50-60 mi) South of Manila. My province is current under Signal 2 alert (scale of 1-5). I'd classify Typhoon Tisoy (Kammuri) as a CAT3 intensity.

As of 12/02/19 at 5 PM report, eye wall is making landfall in Northern Samar Island. Here is link to DOST-PAGASA, but their AWS based server is experiencing DDoS type problems due to the high amount of traffic. Thanks Bezos!
[link to bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph]



Last Edited by Agent MIB on 12/02/2019 05:25 AM

When I saw that well formed eye on this mornings Himarawi-8 WX visible band feed, I was like

The Phil are counting about 7000 islands.

All depending where the Typhoon hit.

Kammuri produces the coldest cloud-top temperature on record

Kammuri may have earned a distinctive place in tropical cyclone history—not because of its impacts in the Philippines, but from its behavior several days earlier. While still a Category 1 typhoon well east of the Philippines, Kammuri was generating exceptionally strong convection, with storms extending high enough in the atmosphere to produce extremely cold cloud tops. At 0420Z on Saturday, November 30, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aboard the NOAA-20 satellite detected a cloud-top infrared brightness temperature just west of Kammuri’s center of –109.4°C (–164.9°F). According to Mark Lander (University of Guam), this appears to be the only cloud-top temperature on record known to exceed by a wide margin the world record reported by Elizabeth Ebert and Greg Holland in 1992 of–102.2°C (–148°F) from Tropical Cyclone Hilda east of Australia in 1990.

Severe thunderstorms can also push cloud tops to extremely high, cold levels. Bachmeier reported in November 2008 that a thunderstorm complex on the north coast of Australia had produced an apparent infrared temperature of –102.9°C (–152°F), rivaling or perhaps slightly besting the record from Hilda.
[link to www.wunderground.com (secure)]

This may have something to do with Earth's atmosphere being thicker (higher) around its equator. Similar to its relative sea level due to Earth's 'bulge'. Its sea level is about 21 km (13 mi) higher than that at its polar axis. The troposphere (where weather occurs) is 20 km (12 mi) high at equator, compared to about 6 km (4 mi) high at poles. Then there is also the 'Coriolis Effect'. It's higher at Earth's poles and zero at its equator. That is the "counter-clockwise" spin in typhoons/hurricanes in Northern hemisphere, "clockwise" spin of cyclones in Southern Hemisphere. Same thing you see with vortexes such as tornadoes or water draining out the sink. We are also close to Winter Solstice in the Northern hemisphere.

When I lived in mid-West/North Carolina, the thunderstorm tops could reach 60-70k feet. Here they're about 35-40k feet at most.

Last Edited by Agent MIB on 12/03/2019 10:10 PM

I contacted a friend who is from Sorgoson in the news story link from your previous post. Their family and property in Sorgoson were ok. Many downed trees, utility poles blocking roads and electricity was still not on. As the pictures showed, there was widespread damage to area.

Last Edited by Agent MIB on 12/04/2019 10:43 PM