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You are here: Home News The Zogby Poll®: 2020 Presidential Election Report
The Zogby Poll®: 2020 Presidential Election Report

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Published: Sunday, 29 December 2019 07:00
Written by Zogby
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Trump Job approval

trumpapproval123019

The president's numbers remain solid: 50% at least somewhat approve of his job as president and 48% at least somewhat disapprove; 2% were not sure.

Trump is doing well and winning back support with important swing voters: Independents (42% at least somewhat approve/52% at least somewhat disapprove), Hispanics (45% at least somewhat approve/55% at least somewhat disapprove) and women (44% at least somewhat approve/53% at least somewhat disapprove).

The president's job approval numbers were strong in the Central/Great Lakes (50% at least somewhat approve/48% at least somewhat disapprove) and the south (56% at least somewhat approve/42% at least somewhat disapprove) compared with voters in the east (45% at least somewhat approve/53% at least somewhat disapprove) and the west (46% at least somewhat approve/53% at least somewhat disapprove). When it came to the household income of voters, Trump does best with high net worth voters earning > $100k (59% at least somewhat approve/40% at least somewhat disapprove).

Nearly half (49%) of voters in large and small cities at least somewhat approved of Trump. His numbers are steady in the suburbs as 46% at least somewhat approve and 52% at least somewhat disapprove.

The president's job approval numbers are very good with consumers: NASCAR fans (67% at least somewhat approve/32% at least somewhat disapprove), weekly Walmart shoppers (58% at least somewhat approve/41% at least somewhat disapprove), weekly Amazon shoppers (60% at least somewhat approve/40% at least somewhat disapprove).

As has been the case for the past few months in our polling, Trump performs well with the most vulnerable voters-lost a job (65% at least somewhat approve/33% at least somewhat disapprove); afraid of losing a job (52% at least somewhat approve/45% at least somewhat disapprove); at a job that pays less (52% at least somewhat approve/47% at least somewhat disapprove) and gone without food for 24 hours (57% at least somewhat approve/44% at least somewhat disapprove).

The president also scored well with Millennials (51% at least somewhat approve/47% at least somewhat disapprove) and Generation X (56% at least somewhat approve/42% at least somewhat disapprove), which represent sub-groups who have majorities who at least somewhat approve of president.

The president continues to perform well with religious voters; he has over 50% approval with Catholic men (57% at least somewhat approve/39% at least somewhat disapprove) and Catholic women (52% at least somewhat approve/45% at least somewhat disapprove). In another trend that has continued for months in Zogby polling, the president's numbers hover near 60% approval with urban men (58% at least somewhat approve/42% at least somewhat disapprove) and urban parents (60% at least somewhat approve/40% at least somewhat disapprove).

The president also does well with the 25-34 (53% at least somewhat approve/45% at least somewhat disapprove) age group. If his job approval ratings continue to do this well with this age cohort, he will be hard to beat in the 2020 general election.

The president did not get a good job approval rating with important sub-groups he needs to win re-election: suburban women (41% at least somewhat approve/56% at least somewhat disapprove). The president's numbers are also down with the youngest voters age 18-24 (25% at least somewhat approve/73% at least somewhat disapprove) and age 18-29 (36% at least somewhat approve/61% at least somewhat disapprove).

2020 Horse races

2020headtohead

Trump vs. Biden

Trump continues to edge out Biden within the margin of error, 46% to 45%. When matched-up against the former vice president, Trump is doing well with voters age 25+ (Trump leads 49% to 42%) and age 30+ (Trump leads 50% to 42%).

Joe Biden received decent support from women voters (Biden leads 48% to 39%) and the youngest voters age 18-24 (Biden leads 65% to 18%) and age 18-29 (Biden leads 57% to 29%). Not surprisingly, Biden polls well with minority voters; he leads with Hispanics (53% to 34%) and African Americans (77% to 14%). At 14% among African American voters, Trump is doing better than the 8% he received from blacks in 2016 presidential election.

Overall, the race is very close between Biden and Trump among important demographics. They are tied within the margin of error among Millennials-born between 1980-1995-Trump leads 45% to 44%; suburban voters (Biden leads 46% to 44%), and small city voters (Trump leads 46% to 45%).

Among the important swing voters the race continues to be a see saw: Trump is winning with Independents (Trump leads 41% to 40%), consumer blocs-NASCAR fans (Trump leads 59% to 34%), weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 52% to 37%), weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 51% to 45%) and the most vulnerable voters-lost a job (Trump leads 52% to 38%), afraid of losing a job (both at 46%), at a job that pays less (Trump leads 48% to 42%), gone without food for 24 hours (Trump leads 47% to 43%). Biden is also beating Trump with suburban women (Biden 47% to 40%), who will factor in big in the 2020 presidential election.

Trump vs. Sanders

In a potential general election showdown, between populist heavy weights, President Trump narrowly beats Sanders 47% to 45%. To no one's surprise Senator Bernie Sanders (VT-I) beats Trump with the youngest voters- age 18-34 (Sanders leads 53% to 37%). Trump does better with voters age 35+ and age 30+ (Trump leads 51% to 43%). What could potentially hurt Trump is Sanders' well standing relationship with Independent voters (Sanders leads Trump 46% to 39%)."

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