Covid19/2021-22 OMICRON/ VIRUS "IHU" FRANCE:P13310/NEWEST VIRUS: "NEOCOV" HIGH INFECTION RATE+1 IN 3 DIE !?! P13315

Been doing that for a couple of years. We have the fastest most hyped up field mice in Scotland.

Last Edited by Leaver on 08/01/2020 05:28 PM

I'm just going off what the ArcGIS site says, they show last 3 days at about 12.1%.

Are you hand calculating based off Worldometers data?

Fauci greastest hits

I know, but he's a good dude. He'll understand. Hope he comes back soon.

Anyone watching Dragon undocking? If I were them I'd just stay up there at the last safe heaven of Man.

Lol, like Speedy Gonzales! But Scottish. ;)

Snuffie, thank you! I didn't know that was happening today!

No they differentiate between Viral tests and antibody tests but calculate % positive based both combined. I ignore the antibody testing in my data set where ever I can.

Antibody tests cannot cause cases so they shouldn't be counted in the positive %, but given reopening standard are based on a vague definition of positive % all states include them.

-Edit- Here's July: [link to i.ibb.co (secure)]

Last Edited by Dutchy20 on 08/01/2020 05:46 PM

They shout "Och Aye" instead of "Ariba"

For sure, definitely was tempting. We haven't jammed since March 5th. With the bleak outlook for Fall, probably won't be playing again until sometime in 2021. Unless the aliens or asteroids get to us first.

Hope they don't. Stay safe.

Oh No! ReLly? Are they really? When are they coming back down?

"To see a larger version of this map, click here"

[link to public.tableau.com (secure)]

Excluding Luxembourg (tiny country), Sweden was Europe's worst performing country for July overall with the highest case rate and highest death rate of all the countries.

In the final week of July there was an acceleration of new cases reported in several countries. Yet Sweden still has one of the highest case rates and the third highest death rate.

[link to www.ecdc.europa.eu (secure)]

Never go full Sweden.

You're welcome. Always happy to keep y'all mostly current when I'm awake. They are going to splash down in 19~ish hours time?

Last Edited by Snuffielover on 08/01/2020 05:59 PM

Please register so I can put you on ignore.

They're solid. I got about 150lbs of flour from them back in the beginning.

Lockdowns wont stop cases or deaths, does nothing but slow them down, why still causing a myriad of other Major social and economic problems.

Short of a vaccine, Herd Immunity is the only way to normality.

Sooner or later society will have to come out of their bunkers.

Looks like a Steller Sea Lion.

What herd immunity?

For my Indy neighbor Riff Raff but also I'm sure it's not just Indiana:

Hoosiers seeing vast range of permanent or lingering symptoms after surviving COVID-19

[link to fox59.com (secure)]

heart, smell/taste, memory loss, difficulty thinking, dizziness, depth perception, ptsd, etc

good times

Raccoons where I am do not eat watermelon - I did tests before I planted my garden to avoid foods raccoons would eat.

Yah tomorrow around 143 pm eastern.... near Pensacola due to uhhh weather :)

Appreciate you snuffy.

Doom nugget.... i am praying for them, but on the off chance they don’t make it... Wordsie did not prevent the mother of all stoopid solar flares.

I know dames sucks, but it’s a really odd year and I didn’t have a good feeling about this to begin with.

35 year old, four months in hospital.....

[link to www.kcci.com (secure)]

So I have been following this board for a long time and saw the potential for doom coming so to speak.

Now, this is not me saying that the virus is not real... this is me realistically questioning the tests and the numbers. So let's get nerdy.

First yes I am referring to the PCR testing. Yes, I understand how PCR tests work and the implied accuracy of the test itself and what it is intended to do.

Though that test is still required to define the specificity, sensitivity, as well as the expected prevalence rate. Try to find that information if you can... it is not easy. Most of it says its a PCR test so it is considered highly accurate etc. etc.

So I am going to say this every test has an objective and a target audience. In, for example, a covid-19 test there should be defining criteria to be tested. It should not be at will. It is expected to have a certain level/percent of the population that test positive.

I have seen the rates for tests and studies (for covid-19) where they claim the specificity is between 92% to 98%. (Depending on the test and/or study)

So what is specificity? Well it is a rate of accuracy of actual negative conditions to the reported negative conditions.

So, in this case, it is calculated as:

True Negatives / (False Positives + True Negatives)

Or to really get to what we are looking at... the likely hood of a false positive test which is 1 - specificity...

So let's get into the numbers... I will use a gavin newsom tweet:
[link to twitter.com (secure)]

That states:
177,201 tests reported yesterday
8,086 positive cases

Which means:
Total tested: 177,201
Tested Positive: 8,086
Tested Negative: 169,115
% of positive to tested: 4.56%

Now add in a 0.96 specificity... which leads to a 4% false-positive rate. (the likely hood of a false positive test which is 1 - specificity)

So (1 - .96)* 177,201 = 7,088 expected false positives

Reported Positives were 8,086

Based on the test 8,086 - 7,088 = 998 are actually positive.

Or we can also work it another way :
[True Negatives / (False Positives + True Negatives)]

0.96 = TN / (FP + TN)
0.96FP + 0.96TN = TN
0.96FP = TN - 0.96TN
0.96FP = 0.04TN
FP = 0.04TN/.96
FP = 0.04166TN

Just assume the True Negatives are 169,115

FP = 0.04166 * 169,115
FP = 7,046.458

--------------------------------

It all leads to the same conclusion highly overstated positive cases... simply because of mass testing where there are no requirements to be tested.

If you can drive up to be tested for the sake of being tested... 4 out of 100 actual negative people will show up as positive.

If your testing just to test and not based on symptoms or any actual Doctor evaluation (aka must have a test before doing XYZ) then things are going to look worse than they appear.

If the entire US Population was tested... the results would show around 4% of the entire population as being positive when they are negative.

What is taking place is absurd and it is not scientific anymore it is political. The testing being used was not designed for how it is being used and is making things look 500% worse than they are.

Unless of course there is something the government is not telling us about this virus... where that rate of false-positive is ok across the board with 0 criteria to be tested.

The tests being used were designed for a 70% - 80% of individuals tested to be positive... (at 80% = 1% false-positive rate vs 500+% false-positive rate)

If you don't believe what I am saying please look it up and do the math. FYI FDA has a guide on how to evaluate diagnostic tests etc. that will confirm the basic formulas used above.

Just food for thought. Enjoy.

Last Edited by JohnnyBravo123 on 08/01/2020 06:25 PM

Lol, Leaver! Love Scotland one my fave spots. You guys love your coffee there. Personally like the one called Kick-Ass Cafe in Edinburgh.