Covid19/2021-22 OMICRON/ VIRUS "IHU" FRANCE:P13310/NEWEST VIRUS: "NEOCOV" HIGH INFECTION RATE+1 IN 3 DIE !?! P13315

Ok good folks - here are two plots.

World Cases and Fatalities:-
[link to anonymousfiles.io (secure)]

Note: Case Fatality Ratio started at 7%
Using a 3-day lag from diagnosis to death.
This worked really well until approx 01-May.
At this point, I began to slide the CFR down from 7% to 4.75% slowly, so it reached 4.75% by 10-July.
A number of factors could account for this, but the model DID need the death rate to reduce for the blue tringles to fit the red squares on the plot.
Perhaps it's hitting younger people, better survival? Perhaps we're testing more (so lower CFR)?
Some combo of the two?

In any case, we KNOW the death rate is not 7% or 4.5%.
Using the Cruise Ship Diamond Princess (13 deaths, 700 cases, CFR ~2%), I'd guess we have a CFR of about 1% in the real world... The ship had more older people than the general population... so I reduced the CFR a bit in my estimate of the TRUE CFR to about 1%.

This might imply we're finding about 1/4.75 of the cases just now, vs 1/7 of the cases earlier in the year.

Or it might imply the disease is hitting a younger population which survives better.

Or perhaps it became less lethal.

However, we are looking at a currently scary exponential which will see us at 275k cases/day by the end of the month and 450k cases/day by the end of August.


UK Cases, Fatalities, Tests,
[link to anonymousfiles.io (secure)]

Note: this plot looks complicated but isn't too bad really.
You can ignore the stars if you like (daily tests).
The projection is done using a Landau distribution, because it has a 'fat tail' - and I stopped allowing that to re-adjust itself on 28th-April. It has shown remarkable accuracy.
As you can see, I have begun a new exponentual fit in the last few days (light blue) - because I believe the UK is heading for a bad few months, now everything is open again...

(@charlesornstein)

As of today, the trauma service area that includes Galveston and Beaumont has ZERO open ICU beds.

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Wtf is going on in China? They just need a war with India, and they have it all.

People hide from census workers all the time. Lol

Venezuela is extra hard mode right now
food scarcity
fuel scarcity
sanitation scarcity
worthless money

very bad

the virus is busy taking over the planet, then the economic pandemic will follow.



Last Edited by Dangerous Times on 07/14/2020 06:05 PM

CDC data lags and is partial up to 8 weeks back, check the insane drop in total deaths compared to covid deaths. Any CDC data past the 30th may is likely to change.

SSRIs/SRNIs decrease deaths, especially escitalopram, fluoxetine, and venlafaxine

Abstract

Importance: On the grounds of their anti-inflammatory and potential antiviral effects, we hypothesized that SSRIs and SNRIs might be effective treatments for Covid-19.

[link to www.medrxiv.org (secure)]

the virus is over. we won. SPIKEEEE. no no that's from ppl going tyo hotspots ignore the #'s. WTF

ITHACA so bad the local news can't add the #'s. shows 9, claims there was 10 reported +4. sdo it's 14-23.no it's 0,those are from travelers. note either way the # is the highest ever for that county. by the way college has not started yet.

This^^^^. Yet my Mom always says “People in families can’t even get along..World peace will never happen”

SpinalCracker

"LA County Reports Highest Number of New Cases and Hospitalizations, Deaths Sharply Increase - 73 New Deaths and 4,244 New Cases of Confirmed COVID-19 in Los Angeles County"

[link to publichealth.lacounty.gov]



Last Edited by Vego on 07/14/2020 06:28 PM

I just ordered this book . Very excited! I have a 1600 foot veg garden, but man Darth makes me feel lazy!

SpinalCracker

ITHACA 17 total current,5 from out of town. several more from 4th celebrations.

Has this been brought up yet?

[link to www.dailymail.co.uk (secure)]

Baby girl born with Covid-19 offers the 'strongest evidence yet' that the virus can be caught in the womb as doctors find traces of the infection in her placenta

Isn't this the second case?

Wasnt there a post a few days/week back about twins (Mexico / New Mexico / something like that) where they tested positive 4 hours after birth and 1 had pnuemonia and other was asymptomatic??

3rd at least. 1 CHINA, 1 UK from several months back.

Last Edited by JAZZz50 on 07/14/2020 06:25 PM

Deaths are a lagging indicator, and it was inevitible they would rise again. In the past week the recorded deaths in USA have been rising consistently again for the first time since it hit the peak months ago.

Not sure I buy into the less fatal strain idea. This latest surge of infections is affecting a higher proportion of the younger people initally (that is now changing though). And hospitalization numbers compared to April are not at the same level... yet. It looks likely there is going to be excess of 1000 recorded deaths on some days this week and my guess is in August it could well hit the heights of 2000 again if lockdowns aren't brought in for the badly affected states.

I was on the Captain Trips bandwagon back in January/February lol but it didn't stick

I think it's a combination of younger people being the majority of cases, and also the fact that testing is WAY more available.

On paper, 35k cases per day yielded 2500 deaths per day back in April. In reality the US would need to be seeing 150k to 200k cases per day to get back to that number of deaths with today's level of testing.

:flagg:

;)

Automakers need to pivot....

1962 view of 2022.

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Definitely stock up this week before the 20th!

I just saw a post that SNAP benefits are deposited on that date, something about if not receiving the maximum amount people will on that date.

So they are giving people the maximum amount possible this coming Monday. This is for Michigan, not sure if other states are doing the same thing but heads up. I'm sure people will try to buy as much as they can if that is one of their only sources of income at the moment.

Yes, and they said the parents were negative.

* it was Mexico

Last Edited by sos on 07/14/2020 06:58 PM

Thread: Breaking - ISRAELI RESEARCH: Fenofibrate may downgrade COVID threat to common cold level

Other states have been giving maximum amounts since April.

And all states dates are different.... but most were dispersed by the 12th and scattered. I did notice that there were a lot of payment issues to match the TMobile crisis times. This month too.

The food pantries are suffering as well. Nationwide. Ours has funding, but the normal actual stuff from people and businesses aren’t coming in. Then at the state level ... there is also lack of stuff. That hurts the more rural counties.

I really wish I had decent data for truckers. I did a google search and there were some epic accidents, in the last month. I just don’t have the patience to create a database.

if you read the whole press release:
1. severe side effects
2. ineffective

its garbage, usual market manipulative headlines to keep markets high.

I really wish scientists and doctors would hold their tongues until trials are done.

On a happy note.... this guy got to act in a great little commercial and earn three months rent.

It’s the small things.

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