First off, let me say that I hope you folks who think there will not be a second wave (or that it will be smaller than the initial one) are right, and that I am wrong.

We simply can't tell much from these data ... they're wrong in a number of different ways, rendering them somewhat meaningless.

My personal sense -- and it is based on a hunch as much as it is on science -- is that there will be second wave ... probably ramping up slowly at first as more and more states open, and then exploding in the fall when seasonal cold/flu strains hit and compromised people's immune systems. I think more and more people will stop being cautious, and that it will take a while for the numbers to reflect the real scale of the infection burden ... and it will hit us really hard.

Part of why I say this is that China is clamping down so hard for such a small number of reported new cases. They know a lot more about this pathogen/these pathogens than we do -- not only have they been living with the outbreak longer, it seems likely to me they have additional information about this being much worse long-term than anyone is saying.

I'll happily eat my words if I turn out to be wrong. I'd actually love for you guys to be correct on this one.